palmettoweather Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 26 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: I’m sorry…. I get setups ect….. but no way Florence gets a foot …. Look at the setup and some of the areas forecast to recieve even a few inches Myrtle/Wilmington think of how rare this would be….. historically this outcome is near impossible imo https://www.weather.gov/ilm/ChristmasSnow1989 It's rare, but growing up in the Pee Dee, it is definitely not impossible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Weird to see the TV folks so keyed in this early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, wake4est said: Weird to see the TV folks so keyed in this early. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Weird to see the TV folks so keyed in this early.When the surface temps are a near lock to cooperate you can go ahead and telegraph to expect a major winter storm since sensible impacts are pretty similar across all precipitation types. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Thats the wrong UK runI would still take 2" considering that is way above Climo for meSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: When the surface temps are a near lock to cooperate you can go ahead and telegraph to expect a major winter storm since sensible impacts are pretty similar across all precipitation types. Yeah, looks like it is just a matter of how much will be snow and how much will be ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Meanwhile CAE still has not released an updated AFD...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GSP still has wintery weather for the area Friday into Friday night. As of 215 pm EST Tuesday: The pattern will get active once again through the short-term period as a series of northern stream waves dive southeast through the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday and amplify a positively tilted trough from the Upper Midwest to the central Plains. The trough will help to drive a moist cold front into the southern Appalachians Wednesday night, which will slip southeast of the area through Thursday. Anticipate mainly liquid ptypes with the fropa, except at the higher peaks and increasingly along the Tennessee border in brief, post fropa northwest flow. Since the highest QPF over the western mountains should be one-half inch or less, this should not be sufficient for hydro issues to develop, even with some mountain snow melt. It has become questionable how much of a lull will develop between the cold fropa and redeveloping upglide over the stalling boundary. A consensus is building that a sharpening upper jetlet may develop along the southern Appalachians Thursday night through Friday. The amplifying upstream trough will be potent, but now appears less likely to cut off west of the Appalachians and more likely to get picked up by the northern stream. The main uncertainty during the Thursday night to Friday period is how vigorous any surface waves become along the stalled boundary draped to our southeast. The ECM has stronger development and pulls more moisture, and thereby QPF, over the region Friday, while the GFS has a more muted response. The ECMWF has trended slightly toward the GFS, but the GEFS ensembles have plenty of snowy members still. Will use an ensemble approach to profiles and keep mainly snow across the region, but with a snow, sleet, and freezing rain mention for the southeast third. This will be introduced into the HWO. Temps will be shaded below guidance as cold air damming develops Friday from 1040 mb high pressure over New England. The wintry precipitation will continue into the early extended period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said: GSP still has wintery weather for the area Friday into Friday night. As of 215 pm EST Tuesday: The pattern will get active once again through the short-term period as a series of northern stream waves dive southeast through the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday and amplify a positively tilted trough from the Upper Midwest to the central Plains. The trough will help to drive a moist cold front into the southern Appalachians Wednesday night, which will slip southeast of the area through Thursday. Anticipate mainly liquid ptypes with the fropa, except at the higher peaks and increasingly along the Tennessee border in brief, post fropa northwest flow. Since the highest QPF over the western mountains should be one-half inch or less, this should not be sufficient for hydro issues to develop, even with some mountain snow melt. It has become questionable how much of a lull will develop between the cold fropa and redeveloping upglide over the stalling boundary. A consensus is building that a sharpening upper jetlet may develop along the southern Appalachians Thursday night through Friday. The amplifying upstream trough will be potent, but now appears less likely to cut off west of the Appalachians and more likely to get picked up by the northern stream. The main uncertainty during the Thursday night to Friday period is how vigorous any surface waves become along the stalled boundary draped to our southeast. The ECM has stronger development and pulls more moisture, and thereby QPF, over the region Friday, while the GFS has a more muted response. The ECMWF has trended slightly toward the GFS, but the GEFS ensembles have plenty of snowy members still. Will use an ensemble approach to profiles and keep mainly snow across the region, but with a snow, sleet, and freezing rain mention for the southeast third. This will be introduced into the HWO. Temps will be shaded below guidance as cold air damming develops Friday from 1040 mb high pressure over New England. The wintry precipitation will continue into the early extended period. Temps will be shaded below guidance as cold air damming develops Friday from 1040 mb high pressure over New England. The wintry precipitation will continue into the early extended period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Not sure why anyone is even saying any model is trending towards the gfs when yday miday the gfs didnt even have a storm when the euro did. Euro held serve today. I love the backyard talk with trying to get snow in their area. Also You dont want to be in the bullseye 4 days out. Lets see what the 0z models bring tonight. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 New Nam looking less amped so far too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 18z NAM rolling now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I hope you guys arent looking at the nam for fri sat storm now. Lord help me 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM slightly cooler through 57Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Gulf low at hr 69Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM looks either slower or less precip coming west with the initial wave Thursday into Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM coming in with a Longhorn Low. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM is gonna end with a cliffhanger 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Congrats, Myrtle Beach? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Delayed, but still gets the job done. Lots of ice for coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM gets there, just seemed to be later than the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Hmm.. Nam brings out the SW energy but it waits until Fri. Night/Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Yeah, really like where the NAM is going at the end of the run. But, I can’t decide if that’s a good or bad thing, because it’s the 84-hour NAM. Virtually no wintry precipitation for anyone with the stalled out front unless you are on the immediate coastline. But, it gets cranking near the end and possibilities abound… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 You can see where its heading 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM was going to be similar to the 00z euro. To me that idea is still on the table. I think we're about 12 to 24 hours away from a censensus. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, calculus1 said: Yeah, really like where the NAM is going at the end of the run. But, I can decide if that’s a good or bad thing, because it’s the 84-hour NAM. Virtually no wintry precipitation for anyone with the stalled out front unless you are on the immediate coastline. But, it gets cranking near the end and possibilities abound… Yeah, I feel like the hr 84 NAM tends to be like... "Hey look! A storm!", When sometimes suppression makes more sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM just said hold my beer, Time to feed the weenies! It’s almost like instead of the northern wave absorbing the southern wave… the southern wave had sucked in the northern wave leading to a beautiful gulf low slider. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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