chris624wx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Yep! Loving the trends this afternoon. Ukie and Euro would be a fantastic storm for SE VA. Hopefully we can lock it in! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 5 inches at Morganton. Know it’s been a good winter when that seems meh lol This type of coastal low is usually not good for us in western NC, especially when upper level support is lacking. IMO, this is really looking like a good setup for eastern NC. I really doubt how much moisture would wrap around roughly west of 77 at the moment. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Don’t think anyone thought they were bad for central NC Sorry, reading quickly to catch up and I was getting a vibe that many were concerned. I'm looking at the Euro scratching my head thinking everyone should be elated with these trends outside of WNC/VA. This is exactly what most were hoping for last week! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Accounts for fluffier ratios I'm under that 21 in Va. Beach so, yeah, nice run. I'll sign for a quarter of that right now. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, WxJordan said: This type of coastal low is usually not good for us in western NC, especially when upper level support is lacking. IMO, this is really looking like a good setup for eastern NC. I really doubt how much moisture would wrap around roughly west of 77 at the moment. I think the over running moisture initially will be the best for us up this way. With the ratios, .20-.25 of qpf will get you warning criteria. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, VABILLUPS1 said: I'm under that 21 in Va. Beach so, yeah, nice run. I'll sign for a quarter of that right now. I'm sure it's overdone even in the best of times but gives you an idea what could start happening if ratios go above 10:1 for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I think the over running moisture initially will be the best for us up this way. With the ratios, .20-.25 of qpf will get you warning criteria. Maybe. Its hard to wrap around enough moisture with the upper air features and low track. Not impossible, just very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, WxJordan said: Maybe. Its hard to wrap around enough moisture with the upper air features and low track. Not impossible, just very difficult. Then ya wonder any nw trend in the coming days ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ghicks said: Then ya wonder any nw trend in the coming days ? Always possible, but in my experience, probably not. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Sorry, reading quickly to catch up and I was getting a vibe that many were concerned. I'm looking at the Euro scratching my head thinking everyone should be elated with these trends outside of WNC/VA. This is exactly what most were hoping for last week! and let's be real here (with much love to the SWVA and mountain crew) those guys cash EVERY winter event that we get warm nosed on. They'll live. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, btownheel said: and let's be real here (with much love to the SWVA and mountain crew) those guys cash EVERY winter event that we get warm nosed on. They'll live. Heck, they are probably in for a few more solid hits this winter anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 17 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: What an awesome run for the Euro. Definitely took a step to the GFS and UK. The models continue to show the area for the largest totals are from Charlotte moving NE into SE VA. Looks good for your area and my area... both are around 8"+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Two things this morning 1. I noticed that wfmy weather team I think Ed Matthew's said this would be more like snow showers and not a big deal he made it sound like. ( hoping we get 2 to 3 inches I would be okay with that in gso which with the temps in the 20s would definitely effect travel) 2. This is giving my flash backs to a storm in 2000 December where there was winter storm warning for 5 to 7 inches we woke up to sunny sky's then I went to my grandparents in spring lake and it was dumping lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 UK is usually to far south for it's bias right? If this comes north--whoowee schwing! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I love how in Raleigh we literally do better 99 times out of 100 with weaker, slider type systems than blockbuster lows like last weekend. Excited for this one, perfect setup for us and the freezing line is nowhere near wake county 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Even if the Euro is correct on track of low and upper level features wouldn't there be a more expansive precipitation field to the NW than is currently shown? Seems like that happens alot in overrunning situations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The ensemble mean looks like it increased a bit, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Probably worthless but the 12zjma is still phasing and throwing precip way back west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I'd be weary of the NE trend in this situation. We need to see the precipitation blossom as the low rides the coast, and not wait until it's in NE NC/SE VA to do it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, CaryWx said: UK is usually to far south for it's bias right? If this comes north--whoowee schwing! I’m sorry…. I get setups ect….. but no way Florence gets a foot …. Look at the setup and some of the areas forecast to recieve even a few inches Myrtle/Wilmington think of how rare this would be….. historically this outcome is near impossible imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I'd be weary of the NE trend in this situation. We need to see the precipitation blossom as the low rides the coast, and not wait until it's in NE NC/SE VA to do it. A la last January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 *nearly faints on that Ukie run*lock that in and cancel winter Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Probably worthless but the 12zjma is still phasing and throwing precip way back west Looking at the 12z euro ens members, I'd say several are still showing a phase with the amount of moisture in the western part of NC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Doesn’t the Ukie on pivotal show all frozen as snow? Or am I thinking of something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I'd be weary of the NE trend in this situation. We need to see the precipitation blossom as the low rides the coast, and not wait until it's in NE NC/SE VA to do it. If it happened a lot, then I might be weary of it. But perhaps we should be leery or even wary of it? Uncertain. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: *nearly faints on that Ukie run* lock that in and cancel winter Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Some of that looks to be frozen precipitation as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Thats the wrong UK run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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