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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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51 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Imo, it's pretty much game over for the upstate if the baja low doesn't get mostly sucked up in to the trough.  The 06z Euro still did this but it was starting to leave a tail of energy behind compared to previous runs. The 12z Nam and 12z Icon sucks it up in a similar fashion, the mostly catch it but leave a bit of a trail behind.

The 12z Rgem leaves a little bit more of it behind.. longer tail, less precip. 

12z GFS leaves it completely behind (so much so that it's showing a very weak secondary wave of precip from it. 

 

game over as being, out of play...I think is what you are saying.

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Cant believe Justus would post that graphic (possible 8" in upstate).  It's what got him in trouble in his earlier years, and really hurt his reputation..
People pissed on him with this last one because he would say we were gonna get 50in....so he's screwed either way with snow weenies

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Can somebody call the NWS-CAE office in Columbia.  They haven't put out a forecast since 3:38am and I am worries they are a victims of foul play.  (The butler did it in study with the lead pipe.)
I already mentioned it two or three times this morning... I'm getting concerned too, but they might be waiting for the 12z EPS (which means no update until late this afternoon)

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Sounds like last storm at this lead time 

Not even close honestly. The chances for western half of the state to see anything out of this are quickly dwindling, I don’t care what the euro says. When every other model is showing eastern storm and SE VA storm I don’t see all of them being that wrong. The last storm never had us in the west missing everything and down east getting the storm. It was always a foothills/Mtn storm on the models from a 7-9 days out, the earlier models just included the eastern part of the state getting in on it too. This is different.
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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

***From Raleigh Perspective***
 

Dear lord, please deliver the 12z GFS prediction as depicted on the model. A weak system with no mixing in Raleigh and long duration of light snow Friday/Saturday. We are not greedy folks and will sacrifice a major storm with juiced QPF for this exact storm to not have mixing issues. Thank you lord, Amen 

One of our kiddos goes to St. David’s.  I will have him say this in chapel tomorrow :).

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18 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:


Not even close honestly. The chances for western half of the state to see anything out of this are quickly dwindling, I don’t care what the euro says. When every other model is showing eastern storm and SE VA storm I don’t see all of them being that wrong. The last storm never had us in the west missing everything and down east getting the storm. It was always a foothills/Mtn storm on the models from a 7-9 days out, the earlier models just included the eastern part of the state getting in on it too. This is different.

I wouldn't say our chances are quickly dwindling, GEFS mean has went from just over 2" last night to over 4" at 12z today. I think this thing has a ways to go before it is written off for anyone.  

 

trend-gefs-2022011812-f096.snod.conus (1).gif

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2 minutes ago, DC2Winston said:

Odds of 7:30am flight Friday from Greensboro happening? Serious question as would have to drive and leave night before if canceled…

I would say the odds are greater than zero, but couldnt say how high they are.  My suggestion would be to ask yourself how late can you make the decision to drive?  Based on forecast uncertainty and how long it may take to iron things out, you may have to decide to drive before the forecast is more settled.

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7 minutes ago, DC2Winston said:

Odds of 7:30am flight Friday from Greensboro happening? Serious question as would have to drive and leave night before if canceled…

Nobody here is going to be able to give you that answer because the system is still many days away still and models are variable. Best thing you can do is revisit your cancellation policy and go from there as the possible event draws near. 

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

***From Raleigh Perspective***
 

Dear lord, please deliver the 12z GFS prediction as depicted on the model. A weak system with no mixing in Raleigh and long duration of light snow Friday/Saturday. We are not greedy folks and will sacrifice a major storm with juiced QPF for this exact storm to not have mixing issues. Thank you lord, Amen 

We may very easily get nothing.  

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