olafminesaw Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Ok so far we've got Euro and NAM in the amped camp; GFS, icon and RGEM in the suppressed camp, and UKMET and CMC somewhere in between 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Cant believe Justus would post that graphic (possible 8" in upstate). It's what got him in trouble in his earlier years, and really hurt his reputation.. It’s a tough call. The mass access to and distribution of model outputs create a dilemma for meteorologists, especially tv Mets. They are constantly bombarded with questions about model outputs. It would be difficult to not Acknowledge models. Most tv Mets now are publicly interpreting different model depictions when major events are likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Cant believe Justus would post that graphic (possible 8" in upstate). It's what got him in trouble in his earlier years, and really hurt his reputation.. All he is doing is giving the viewers the possibilities. We are smart enough to know what he is doing and we appreciate his contributions to keeping us safe in the Upstate. Chris is one of the best in the business. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 hours ago, msuwx said: When you ae dealing with stream interaction/ phasing, the UKMET is usually one of the best. We shall see. Considering this endorsement of the UKMET and its most recent run I’m surprised there hasn’t been more discussion. Verbatim, the storm would be huge for most on this board! Rooting for a solution like this on future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: It wasn’t Chris who posted it. One of the other mets at WYFF did. Maybe he had to approve it though first. Not sure. As chief Met, I'm sure it was approved by him.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, gman said: All he is doing is giving the viewers the possibilities. We are smart enough to know what he is doing and we appreciate his contributions to keeping us safe in the Upstate. Chris is one of the best in the business. Well in 2014 he mentioned GSP getting like 14" (as models showed), when we got less than 2". He's learned to mostly take the conservative approach to accumulations, as NWS has, until this. Which is why I'm surprised.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Well in 2014 he mentioned GSP getting like 14" (as models showed), when we got less than 2". He's learned to mostly take the conservative approach to accumulations, as NWS has, until this. Which is why I'm surprised.. He is only reporting what models are depicting now, which is not an endorsement of a forecast. The contact is clear here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 17 minutes ago, Bevo said: Boy if there was ever a time the Euro homers need it to be right… Well at this range it's the proven best model in the biz. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: Well at this range it's the proven best model in the biz. GFS is kinda like Dak prescott. Sucks when it matters. 14 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Brad Panovich was just now using the GFS model in his blog... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 People hate on the Euro saying it's not what its used to be but the Euro is Tom Brady, still the best. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Brad Panovich was just now using the GFS model in his blog... In my experience, when the NAM and Euro both latch onto something, it really time to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 SC Midlands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: People hate on the Euro saying it's not what its used to be but the Euro is Tom Brady, still the best. Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 It's definitely notable the EURO is the most amplified model currently. That usually means it's noticing something the other models aren't due to its superior resolution. Since we now have a prior storm to compare this one to (Trend wise), I would say the GFS will likely trend towards the EURO (at least a bit). That said, the fact that most of the other models are farther east would lead me to believe we won't go to a Miller B solution. IMO this storm evolution is likely to start Thursday night as the arctic front drags through. This will setup a stationary thermal boundary somewhere near the coastline. Which the following impulses will ride. The main question is what happens on Saturday as the main PJ impulse dives down? If it amps like the euro eastern NC get's ice and western get's snow. And visa versa if it's more suppressed. The euro is also throwing in the chance of a last minute phase solution which could be good for eastern NC from a deformation band/back end snow scenario. The I think by tonight/tomorrow the models will start to converge. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 So far the GFS has a bit more precip last few runs but mostly suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: GFS is kinda like Dak prescott. Sucks when it matters. Now that's some high quality insight lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GFS primes us on Friday then paints us on Saturday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: So far the GFS has a bit more precip last few runs but mostly suppressed The “1St” event Thur night seems lighter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Anyway you slice the models today: 1) front passes Thursday with rain, possibly mixing with snow at end 2) relative lull Friday morning with front stalled off coast but precip builds back into cold air with wintry mix breaking out 3) some form of coastal development takes place Friday. More Amped = more precip, further north and west precipitation, stronger warm nose, better for upstate, Triad, Virginia. Less amped = less precipitation, less coverage away from coast, less ice threat east 4) ALL MODELING IS COLD AT SURFACE. Most of NC and a lot of SC will stay below freezing through the event In my opinion, blend the models as seen now and you end up with an expansive area of sleet/snow with light to moderate accumulation, a strip of pure snow but less moisture NW of there, and an area that needs to be watched for freezing rain from the SC midlands to the NC coastal plain. Many more details but that’s my oversimplified take on modeling today 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Seems like Rocky Mount may end up doing better than the Triad. I have a feeling that although we will have long duration and less mixing issues, dry air may reduce the max potential from playing out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GFS tries to bring precip back up Saturday with another wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Basically it's a convoluted mess but still brings eastern NC a decent snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Ice on the beach anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12z GFS Is a good run for Raleigh that is for sure. A nice 4-6 event. the ice is still worrysome of course but where that front hangs up is going to make all the difference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Basically it's a convoluted mess but still brings eastern NC a decent snow Looks like the totals increased a bit for the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The main diff b/n the euro and gfs is the EURO phases the northern stream impulse with the stj impulse over Texas below. If you see the GFS start trend towards a solution where that s/w is being phased into the northern trough then you know it's caving towards the EURO. Will be interesting to watch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Anyway you slice the models today: 1) front passes Thursday with rain, possibly mixing with snow at end 2) relative lull Friday morning with front stalled off coast but precip builds back into cold air with wintry mix breaking out 3) some form of coastal development takes place Friday. More Amped = more precip, further north and west precipitation, stronger warm nose, better for upstate, Triad, Virginia. Less amped = less precipitation, less coverage away from coast, less ice threat east 4) ALL MODELING IS COLD AT SURFACE. Most of NC and a lot of SC will stay below freezing through the event In my opinion, blend the models as seen now and you end up with an expansive area of sleet/snow with light to moderate accumulation, a strip of pure snow but less moisture NW of there, and an area that needs to be watched for freezing rain from the SC midlands to the NC coastal plain. Many more details but that’s my oversimplified take on modeling today This^^ absolutely the best way to summarize things, state what we know and allow models to sort through these moving parts. Everything will become more clear tomorrow and tomorrow night. Also ICON looked to be more in the EURO, NAM camp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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