CaryWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 2:19 PM, msuwx said: That is a stronger ice signal on the NBM than I ever remember seeing leading up to our last storm. Expand I'll defer to you here certainly Matt but are you seeing severe ice in the Triangle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Looking at the 10m wind, falling ice with 10-15mph winds and gusts 25-30... That is a recipe for a lot of power outagesSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 2:21 PM, CaryWx said: I'll defer to you here certainly Matt but are you seeing severe ice in the Triangle? Expand I wouldn't sound too many alarms just yet, but the ice signal looks a little stronger on this one from afar to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 One thing is it's very important to keep in mind a purely snow event in the triangle is extremely rare. Even Jan 2000 started as a good amount of rain before changing over to snow. We had 20 inches out of that when I was in Southern Pines after hours of cold rain. If we get a bit of snow and a little sleet, the sleet will make any snowpack hang around quite a bit longer. Of course for photos I need it to be in the trees too. I only wish I was a photog in 2000 and had drone tech then. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Not that it's worth anything but I still think there will be no "big" event (anything less than 4" of snow; .25" of ZR isn't a "big deal"). MBY Thursday night rain, sure but Friday - Saturday could very much be a bust, nada, no-show for all. I hope I'm wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM looks like the 00Z Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM was about to go boom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM with the hot handSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 2:47 PM, Sandstorm94 said: NAM with the hot hand Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Expand Looks realistic. The warm nose has been much more of a problem recently in NC. I think someone mentioned above average water temps which could be caused by global warming. I cannot remember who mentioned this though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 2:45 PM, wncsnow said: NAM looks like the 00Z Euro. Expand The EE rule 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM starts out as sleet here but looks to turn to snow with the 850s crashing fast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 2:50 PM, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Looks realistic. The warm nose has been much more of a problem recently in NC. I think someone mentioned above average water temps which could be caused by global warming. I cannot remember who mentioned this though. And still going strong at 84 tooSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Remember it's the NAM at 84. Overall set up more reliable than p-type specifics/locations and amounts right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Where does the miller-B transfer look to set up? From SC coast to off Hatteras? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I'm really rooting for you CNC and ENC folk. Izzy was a major hit here, so I'm all good and would be juiced to see this be an eastern Carolinas thing. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 2:56 PM, CaryWx said: Where does the miller-B transfer look to set up? From SC coast to off Hatteras? Expand https://weatherworksinc.com/news/Miller-A-vs-Miller-B Roughy this: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I’ll take anything as long as it stays below freezing once the wintry precipitation starts and that there is enough snow or sleet to shovel. This looks like a good bet to get 1-3” of snow or sleet in the triangle with brutally cold temps. Honestly I don’t care if it’s just sleet 2” of sleet is a good storm to me. Models certainly showing a warm nose but steadfast on frigid surface temps. Keep the freezing rain out and this (and with these profiles it looks like an expansive sleet storm) will be a great storm regardless of total snowfall. Models are trending towards this type of storm and I’m perfectly ok with that! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 3:04 PM, olafminesaw said: NAM joins the Euro camp at 12z Expand Long range NAM but that’s a big time storm growing at the end of the run. Also- the duration of this even looks amazing 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 3:08 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Long range NAM but that’s a big time storm growing at the end of the run. Also- the duration of this even looks amazing Expand That's what I'm liking... is how long of a duration this could be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 3:00 PM, NorthHillsWx said: I’ll take anything as long as it stays below freezing once the wintry precipitation starts and that there is enough snow or sleet to shovel. This looks like a good bet to get 1-3” of snow or sleet in the triangle with brutally cold temps. Honestly I don’t care if it’s just sleet 2” of sleet is a good storm to me. Models certainly showing a warm nose but steadfast on frigid surface temps. Keep the freezing rain out and this (and with these profiles it looks like an expansive sleet storm) will be a great storm regardless of total snowfall. Models are trending towards this type of storm and I’m perfectly ok with that! Expand This fellow North Raleigh poster completely agrees with you! I won’t be greedy at all. 1”-3” would be perfect. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 3:13 PM, snowinnc said: This fellow North Raleigh poster completely agrees with you! I won’t be greedy at all. 1”-3” would be perfect. Expand I feel I can get 3 to 5 here easily. Start off as sleet and then change over to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 RGEM is slower and more suppressed than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:04 PM, gman said: Wow. The filthy language in that tweet is not worthy to be on this forum Expand Well, it was a twitter post he linked. We all know twitter can be a ceaspool. But seriously, I consider this more of a family setting, and should be treated as such. Thanks for speaking up gman!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just a “slight” difference between the Euro and GFS: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 3:24 PM, lilj4425 said: Just a “slight” difference between the Euro and GFS: Expand Boy if there was ever a time the Euro homers need it to be right… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 3:24 PM, lilj4425 said: Just a “slight” difference between the Euro and GFS: Expand Cant believe Justus would post that graphic (possible 8" in upstate). It's what got him in trouble in his earlier years, and really hurt his reputation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 3:28 PM, Snow dog said: Cant believe Justus would post that graphic (possible 8" in upstate). It's what got him in trouble in his earlier years, and really hurt his reputation.. Expand It wasn’t Chris who posted it. One of the other mets at WYFF did. Maybe he had to approve it though first due to being chief met. Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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