burrel2 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12z Rgem appears to be setting up for a monster gulf low riding the arctic front. Can't wait to see the CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Beach Snow said: Icon didn’t do terrible for the past storm its been showing the signal over the last few days Yeah, just really jumped all over the place. Showed the range of outcomes which was helpful I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The icon looks good for a long duration moderate event for the climo favored regions of the central NC Piedmont (the Icon is trash I know, but better than discussing, well... not weather) Did Icon do a good job with Izzy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 comparing 12z Rgem and 00z CMC, the new rgem has more fully incorporated the baja low and led to a much sharper/congealed trough. Gulf low already organizing off the texas coast as a result. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, burrel2 said: comparing 12z Rgem and 00z CMC, the new rgem is has more fully incorporated the baja low and led to a much sharper trough. Gulf low already organizing off the texas coast as a result. Is the sharper trough good or bad? Sorry still drinking coffee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, CaryWx said: Is the sharper trough good or bad? Sorry still drinking coffee Good if you're worried about suppression and a weak/non-event for most. Though the way things are trending I think i'm more concerned this thing winds up being too amped. The good thing is we're only 96hrs away so how much more drastically could it trend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 GFS kicking the SW wave out faster. But need the arctic wave to progress through and set up the HP out ahead of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Good if you're worried about suppression and a weak/non-event for most. Though the way things are trending I think i'm more concerned this thing winds up being too amped. The good thing is we're only 96hrs away so how much more drastically could it trend? Yeah, a big advantage to these type of setups is it's pretty easy to score a light to moderate snow event. A big hit, however is a bit more of a thread the needle scenerio. If a lp system develops along the boundary and deepens, it can bring in warm mid level air and cause mixing issues along the southern fringes. There is a fairly narrow jackpot zone, and the northern fringe struggles with dry air, but gets nice cold powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 This will be a partial phase.... here's a spot to watch for... if this wave trends stronger then you'd be looking at more of a bomb developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12z Rgem... the most phased/sharp trough we've seen yet on modeling for this storm I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 That northern stream short wave on this run is worst its looked (weaker and ticking NE) so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, ILMRoss said: That northern stream short wave on this run is worst its looked (weaker and ticking NE) so far. Looks like it's developing something in the gulf for the weekend though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 GFS still trying to fixate on which system to key in on... its more so going with late Saturday into Sunday with the Gulf Low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12z Rgem... the most phased/sharp trough we've seen yet on modeling for this storm I believe. That as far out as it goes?Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Looks like the GFS wants to give us a possible one-two punch this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, olafminesaw said: Looks like it's developing something in the gulf for the weekend though I'm not super duper enthused about the "second wave" because the cold appears way more marginal. Give me improvements on the first wave all day. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Second punch looks impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said: That as far out as it goes? Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 So, we're about 3 days out from a possible storm and GFS is still trying to figure out if we'll have one or two storms this week. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Yay, more ZR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Hopefully 12z CMC keeps it consistent on the “first” storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Blackout in GA and SC.. Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 It is getting frustrating to see the models show these great snow storms with temps in the 20s here about 7 days out only for it to become a mess two days later and trying to figure out if we'll actually get snow, ice, or rain. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 First wave still manages to give down East 6+ inches around New Bern/Havelock area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Given storm placement and development among the various models not a bad look overall on the blended I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Cold rain? Not really 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 @54 the Canadian looks very similar to that 12z run yesterday. Our Arizona energy looks a little weaker and I think it would be easy to get it to phase with our northern shortwave. Let's find out... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Crazy we are tracking a system with snow/sleet on the ground never in my life lol :) hopefully we can get nice 1 to 2 inches of snow with temps in 20s that's my bar for win In GSO(Greensboro) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I wonder if the two different waves is making it difficult for the models to pick up on what really will happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: @54 the Canadian looks very similar to that 12z run yesterday. Our Arizona energy looks a little weaker and I think it would be easy to get it to phase with our northern shortwave. Let's find out... I'll pump the breaks and say @84 never mind. Too much separation. Another event coming but it won't be a kingmaker. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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