FYI - Webcasting

[ezweather]

Hi Folks,

Very excited to begin posting over here. I wanted to share with you all about my webcast shows that I’ll periodically produce. None of this would ever be possible without the many great posts by all the pros out there that have kept my meteorology skill set over the past 10 years, sharper in weather forecasting such as Wes Junker and Dave Toleris. Also, big thanks go to Randy and his crew for making this awesome board possible. There’s no question the internet gives us a lot of options to what we can produce.

So, the game plan is that I’ll be posting over in the Regional thread under New York City/Philadelphia Metro. The webcast show I’ll be producing once a week will be a two week outlook, which consists of the NWS outlooks for the Philadelphia area. I go a step further with their forecasts to highlight future weather hazards in risk tables. So, it’s more of getting the word out on potential events. Its a bit similar to what DT does on his site. Also, I’ll try to file audio webcasts during the week using programs like GREarth to show global temperatures and much more. Of course, it all depends on my schedule when I can produce these videos..

So, here it goes..

Below is a summary of my weekly webcast show for the Philadelphia Area outlook for the next two weeks.

Short Range Outlook – Fri, Dec 24^th through Mon, Dec 27^th

- Part I: Upper Air Pattern Outlook, Forecast Weather Maps, Temperature and Precipitation Forecast Trends

- Part II: Hazardous Weather Outlooks, including Forecast Risk Tables and Weather Safety Information

Long Range Outlook – Tue, Dec 28^th through Wed, Jan 5^th

- Part I: 6 to 10 Day and 8 to 14 Day Outlook, detailing Jet Stream Outlook, Temperatures and Precipitation

- Part II: Hazardous Weather Outlooks, including Forecast Risk Tables and Weather Safety Resources

To access the webcast videos, just head over to my site at www.ezweather.com. From there, click on the Broadcast tab. From there, you’ll be able to see the videos I posted.

Brief Summary Discussion

Fri, Dec 24^th through Monday, Dec 27^th

This period, the jet stream will develop an amplified trough in the East during this period. Significant ridging will take place over portions of the western and central US. Originally, there appeared to be a threat for a significant winter storm for Sunday into Monday. At this time, the 12z guidance (NAM, RGEM, GFS, Euro) develops the storm over the Gulf of Mexico, but tracks it well offshore as it heads up the East Coast by Monday. As this storm moves by on Monday, it will turn windier and colder.

Still, it would be wise to monitor the track of this storm in case any changes should result.

Temperatures expected to be below average.

Precipitation is expected to be average to above average.

Weather Hazards Expected

Eastern Pennsylvania, NJ, Northeastern Maryland, and Delaware: There is a low risk for a winter storm for Sunday into Monday.

There is a low risk for a major winter storm. There are three key items to this event, heavy snowfall, wind and marine impact. For Snowfall, low risk of snowfall of 3 to 6 inches. For Strong winds, there is a low risk. Winds will likely be stronger at the coast, therefore there is a risk of higher winds. Also, the marine aspects to this storm will be moderate risk for rough seas, and low risk for beach erosion, and coastal flooding.

Wednesday, December 29^th through Sunday, January 2^nd

This period, the jet stream will feature the trough lifting out over the east while the western and central US have a trough. The European and GFS indicate several Pacific systems that could result in active pattern during this period. Also, some both models are showing a significant winter storm for the Midwest. The Telleconnection Indice forecasts by the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), calling for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) to be weakly positive and the Pacific North American (PNA) to be weakly positive. The flow across the US will likely have a fast flow. Overall, this period will be milder compared to the cold weather that has been experienced most of December.

Temperatures are expected to be below average.

Precipitation expected to be near average.

Weather hazards expected

Eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Northeastern Maryland, and Delaware: None forecasted at this time. <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break">

Sunday, January 2^nd through Wednesday, January 5^th

This period, jet stream will feature some ridging over western US, central US trough and into New England. Also, a fast upper air flow will exist during this period as well. It appears that more of Pacific influence will be felt across most of the US. The blocking over Canada will break down, but there may be new blocking forming near Greenland. There will be several Pacific systems that will move across the northern US during this period. The forecasts by ESRL show that NAO and AO will rise to a positive phase. The PNA will likely remain in a weakly negative state.

Temperatures forecasted to be near average.

Precipitation forecasted to be average to above average.

Weather hazards expected

Eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Northeastern Maryland, and Delaware: None expected at this time.

[rainstorm]

looks good

[ezweather]

Thank you very much.. Appreciate it..

looks good

[tmagan]

There isn't a chance in the world temperatures will be below average from December 29^th to January 2^nd.

[ezweather]

Well, the graphics I was using was issued yesterday.. And guess what, above average here. Yep, should have checked, but only have so much time to prepare these graphics. I knew it would be turning mild. Well, its gonna be a lot sooner. Thats good news.

There isn't a chance in the world temperatures will be below average from December 29^th to January 2^nd.