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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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15 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I still think they look better than December and we should get our chances in January, but our window in the next two weeks looks much narrower than it did just 12-24 hours ago. Brief shot of cold early next week before we get some degree of ridging. Even on the ensembles, once the 500 height anomalies go back to positive mid-next week they stay either positive or neutral for much of the period.

Pretty much spot on why I never get too excited with ensemble cold waves until Op's start showing it.  It's our right of winter to watch ensembles advertise us rockin' but  then struggle to get it to come to fruition.    Still hope this time will be better. 

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9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Oh wow, one might call that an over-performer, eh?

For sure, although the HRRR was showing amounts like this through about it’s 0z run or so last night before it lightened up the initial slug of precip. Looks like the earlier runs ended up being correct with the heavy slug of precip up front. This may be enough to push into the Sus Valley and collapse the column for a period of heavier snow. 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

For sure, although the HRRR was showing amounts like this through about it’s 0z run or so last night before it lightened up the initial slug of precip. Looks like the earlier runs ended up being correct with the heavy slug of precip up front. This may be enough to push into the Sus Valley and collapse the column for a period of heavier snow. 

Exactly what I'm hoping for.  Not a ton of support for it but it's on the doorstep and returns look fairly healthy.  Fingers crossed but glad some people out your way got to cash in.

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23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Pretty much spot on why I never get too excited with ensemble cold waves until Op's start showing it.  It's our right of winter to watch ensembles advertise us rockin' but  then struggle to get it to come to fruition.    Still hope this time will be better. 

Time will tell. In the meantime, you guys have an event today to enjoy and the 6z GFS has a total of 19” of snow at MDT over its entire run.

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4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I will still post probably in our regular thread in the mid Atlantic, but now I’m actually a part of this geography. Just moved to Carroll Valley mid October after three years in Westminster!

Welcome to the team.  You Join @cashtown and I as the "Just west of the LSV gang".  Carroll Valley is a nice area.    How they do not have a gas station still mystifies me.   The closed store on the outskirts of Fairfield still looks in good shape for someone to jump in and go for it. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Welcome to the team.  You Join @cashtown and I as the "Just west of the LSV gang".  Carroll Valley is a nice area.    How they do not have a gas station still mystifies me.   The closed store on the outskirts of Fairfield still looks in good shape for someone to jump in and go for it. 

Haha thanks for the warm welcome, it’s a great area for sure. Do you mean over by the dollar general? I agree, shouldn’t have to go to Blue Ridge Summit or Emmitsburg for gas (and always going to Emmitsburg with those PA gas prices) 

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