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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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11 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Merry Christmas to you and everyone else, here.  As always, I’m spending Christmas at my wife’s family home in Lancaster.   

Feels a lot like NC out, eh?  LOL.    44 here this AM.   For those not wanting a record, the trends have been good over night.  Keeps MDT closer to 60 or under. 

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9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Mrs. Blizz gave me some weather Christmas gifts this morning!

Soon I will be measuring rain, tracking temps and wind with my new Weather Center!

 

CD1DB14E-5CD8-483B-BB87-B98AF4ADB286.jpeg

Idk why but I pegged you for a 16-year-old like the kids on the old AccuWeather forums that referred to themselves as "Junior Meteorologist." 

 

I guess I'm a dick lol. Nice score. 

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29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, I wish that I was still that young some days!

I am 44 years old with a wife,  2 daughters (8 & 10 years old) , a dog, a house & a job!
 

I also happen to love the weather, with a particular fascination for snow!

Merry Christmas!

Geez Blizz I beat you by 9 years :D Merry Christmas all!

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Mrs. Blizz gave me some weather Christmas gifts this morning!

Soon I will be measuring rain, tracking temps and wind with my new Weather Center!

 

CD1DB14E-5CD8-483B-BB87-B98AF4ADB286.jpeg

I got one for Christmas also. But my rain gauge needs tweaked a little, it’s not jiving with the rainfall.

”just a couple screw adjustments “

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Merry Christmas everyone!

It’s been a pretty rainy morning here. We need the rain but it’s pretty blah that we’re getting it on Christmas Day. It also was in the upper 30s til about mid morning, then temps rocketed into the mid 50s. Also had this happen briefly while I was making this post if anyone had Christmas rainbow in their bets for random holiday weather. It’s already now cloudy and raining again. 

A65657AE-F623-455A-B0E9-0B84DF47B640.thumb.jpeg.948e441d0ec23536c50699cc17421e92.jpeg

Not sure what to think of this Monday system, I’ve been keeping an eye on it. Seems like we’re going to have two cutting waves in quick succession Mon and Wed. Monday’s has some surface high support for a time, while Wednesday probably ends up rainier (though models have had some different takes on the beginning of that one as well). Gonna concentrate on Monday for now. I tend to think the potential snow burst is going to be brief with this. The column starts marginal, especially at 850mb.. and it’s going to quickly get advected above zero. Could we get a quick inch or two in spots? Perhaps, if it comes in fast with heavier precip and we wetbulb the column down briefly. The upper Sus Valley MDT north seems best positioned for that possibility. 

This seems like more of a potential several hour period of sleet/freezing rain though, with the best icing potential where it always is.. in the interior central counties of the ridge and valley. NAM had been extremely disinterested in any organized precip at all but the 12z 12k run looked more like the other models. NAM has been warmer in terms of the column though, esp at 850mb. There’s a big time difference between 850 and 925mb in the central counties. For instance Hr 54 at KAOO has -2ºC at 925mb and +9ºC at 850mb. That indicates to me more of a straight ZR scenario. The globals have been colder, which allow for the period of snow and/or sleet. The NAM’s warmer column actually seems like the better bet in this setup IMO,  but we shall see. I do think this is going to merit the first widespread advisory event of the season for CTP’s CWA. 

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Merry Christmas everyone!

It’s been a pretty rainy morning here. We need the rain but it’s pretty blah that we’re getting it on Christmas Day. It also was in the upper 30s til about mid morning, then temps rocketed into the mid 50s. Also had this happen briefly while I was making this post if anyone had Christmas rainbow in their bets for random holiday weather. It’s already now cloudy and raining again. 

A65657AE-F623-455A-B0E9-0B84DF47B640.thumb.jpeg.948e441d0ec23536c50699cc17421e92.jpeg

Not sure what to think of this Monday system, I’ve been keeping an eye on it. Seems like we’re going to have two cutting waves in quick succession Mon and Wed. Monday’s has some surface high support for a time, while Wednesday probably ends up rainier (though models have had some different takes on the beginning of that one as well). Gonna concentrate on Monday for now. I tend to think the potential snow burst is going to be brief with this. The column starts marginal, especially at 850mb.. and it’s going to quickly get advected above zero. Could we get a quick inch or two in spots? Perhaps, if it comes in fast with heavier precip and we wetbulb the column down briefly. The upper Sus Valley MDT north seems best positioned for that possibility. 

This seems like more of a potential several hour period of sleet/freezing rain though, with the best icing potential where it always is.. in the interior central counties of the ridge and valley. NAM had been extremely disinterested in any organized precip at all but the 12z 12k run looked more like the other models. NAM has been warmer in terms of the column though, esp at 850mb. There’s a big time difference between 850 and 925mb in the central counties. For instance Hr 54 at KAOO has -2ºC at 925mb and +9ºC at 850mb. That indicates to me more of a straight ZR scenario. The globals have been colder, which allow for the period of snow and/or sleet. The NAM’s warmer column actually seems like the better bet in this setup IMO,  but we shall see. I do think this is going to merit the first widespread advisory event of the season for CTP’s CWA. 

Thanks Mag merry christmas!

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