Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 Best chance I see for the 12Z Euro, at this point, is if one of those wandering middle country SLP's gets close enough to the East Coast to induce something to our South (at the coast) that pulls in cold air at the right time. Otherwise we are on the wrong side of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Best chance I see for the 12Z Euro, at this point, is if one of those wandering middle country SLP's gets close enough to the East Coast to induce something to our South (at the coast) that pulls in cold air at the right time. Otherwise we are on the wrong side of the boundary. We are doomed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 At least temps are below freezing at midnight on New Year’s. (with some WAA and rain looming as a low cuts through Iowa) Edit: actually looks like mixed precip for many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, TimB84 said: At least temps are below freezing at midnight on New Year’s. (with some WAA and rain looming as a low cuts through Iowa) the run blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Well I think I am safe for the period of January 15-22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: Well I think I am safe for the period of January 15-22. Maybe that’s when the switch finally gets flipped. Maybe you could go sooner and flip the pattern faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: Maybe that’s when the switch finally gets flipped. Maybe you could go sooner and flip the pattern faster? HAHA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Maybe that’s when the switch finally gets flipped. Maybe you could go sooner and flip the pattern faster? Spin the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Spin the MJO. Tell whoever is in charge of the simulation we’re living in that we want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 55 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I mean I get the whole sentiment that we only get a few months each year to track snow and we might as well enjoy it, but the fact that the window is so small to begin with makes it all the more discouraging when 5-6 weeks of that window is wasted on a pattern like this. See my posts from a couple of days ago about good Winters that “wasted” several weeks or at least a month of Winter. We rarely have a good beginning, middle & end. Examples off of the top of my head … 09-10 - No snow in January or March, but had a great December & epic February. 14-15 - 1 good November snowstorm, nothing in December to mid January. Then we had a great run from late Jan. to March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: See my posts from a couple of days ago about good Winters that “wasted” several weeks or at least a month of Winter. We rarely have a good beginning, middle & end. Examples off of the top of my head … 09-10 - No snow in January or March, but had a great December & epic February. 14-15 - 1 good November snowstorm, nothing in December to mid January. Then we had a great run from late Jan. to March. Out of a bad beginning, middle, and end, a bad beginning is harder to stomach because in the other two scenarios, there’s already been a good part. Some winters don’t have a good part, but it seems every winter has a bad part or two or three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: See my posts from a couple of days ago about good Winters that “wasted” several weeks or at least a month of Winter. We rarely have a good beginning, middle & end. Examples off of the top of my head … 09-10 - No snow in January or March, but had a great December & epic February. 14-15 - 1 good November snowstorm, nothing in December to mid January. Then we had a great run from late Jan. to March. I concur with this, Blizz. You often think I am poo pooing things but I am more poo pooing the looks on models. If one tried to argue with me that we are going bonkers with snow at the end of Dec then I would debate, but Jan 10th? Could be a Mega bomb. The models, teleconnections, etc....are only real solid for 5-7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Out of a bad beginning, middle, and end, a bad beginning is harder to stomach because in the other two scenarios, there’s already been a good part. Some winters don’t have a good part, but it seems every winter has a bad part or two or three. It is better to have eggs in the basket already....but it will mean a lot more if we do score mid season. Later season is always a bit sour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is better to have eggs in the basket already....but it will mean a lot more if we do score mid season. Later season is always a bit sour. January 23rd works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, paweather said: January 23rd works for me That is a 50 yard punt, from the 5, that bounces and rolls another 30 yards pinning WFT at their own 15. Almost 2/3 of winter gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: That is a 50 yard punt, from the 5, that bounces and rolls another 30 yards pinning WFT at their own 15. Almost 2/3 of winter gone. Good late mid-end of season touchback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is a 50 yard punt, from the 5, that bounces and rolls another 30 yards pinning WFT at their own 15. Almost 2/3 of winter gone. Well, if our winter is like WFT we were screwed from the get go. Now it all makes sense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I concur with this, Blizz. You often think I am poo pooing things but I am more poo pooing the looks on models. If one tried to argue with me that we are going bonkers with snow at the end of Dec then I would debate, but Jan 10th? Could be a Mega bomb. The models, teleconnections, etc....are only real solid for 5-7 days out. Good points… I am trying to find our windows of opportunity for snow. Then we need to score when we have the chance. I usually get super frustrated when we waste a good opportunity or a period lets us down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is better to have eggs in the basket already....but it will mean a lot more if we do score mid season. Later season is always a bit sour. Exactly. Last year we had “eggs in the basket” in mid December with the good 1 foot snowstorm for many in the LSV and much more to the north. But then last year there were no more eggs served until the next big snowstorm on 1/31 into 2/1. Our Winters come in many different forms over the course of history. Heck, just look again at the last 40 years of snow at MDT… lots of ups & downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good points… I am trying to find our windows of opportunity for snow. Then we need to score when we have the chance. I usually get super frustrated when we waste a good opportunity or a period lets us down. Understood. Plus you sort of take ownership of it. For me (and probably everyone), never think some kind of score is being kept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Understood. Plus you sort of take ownership of it. For me (and probably everyone), never think some kind of score is being kept. I keep score in terms of seasonal snow at MDT just to mark what history will record for our region. Believe me, this is also very much a backyard sport…so I love winning in my yard. I know that I will usually lose to @Cashtown_Coop , but I have accepted it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Exactly. Last year we had “eggs in the basket” in mid December with the good 1 foot snowstorm for many in the LSV and much more to the north. But then last year there were no more eggs served until the next big snowstorm on 1/31 into 2/1. Our Winters come in many different forms over the course of history. Heck, just look again at the last 40 years of snow at MDT… lots of ups & downs. This dude has eggs in his basket on a train! Do not think that is a Chattanooga Choo Choo but still.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I keep score in terms of seasonal snow at MDT just to mark what history will record for our region. Believe me, this is also very much a backyard sport…so I love winning in my yard. I know that I will usually lose to @Cashtown_Coop , but I have accepted it! People already call him big money so he may be getting a big head over all the snow adoration. Plus if you get an old fashioned just off shore Nor'Easter, Cash and Bubbler will be jealous of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 In south Philly and forecasts here are for a dusting of snow overnight. I might stick around to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 MA M/D special on the 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 3 hours ago, TimB84 said: At least temps are below freezing at midnight on New Year’s. (with some WAA and rain looming as a low cuts through Iowa) Edit: actually looks like mixed precip for many areas. Withdrawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: People already call him big money so he may be getting a big head over all the snow adoration. Plus if you get an old fashioned just off shore Nor'Easter, Cash and Bubbler will be jealous of you. How much snow do you two average? I am going to guess 35 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: How much snow do you two average? I am going to guess 35 inches. I have only been here 3 winters now but if you pull out 19-20, the other two years have been higher. Cashtown will have more exact stats but guessing 40" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I have only been here 3 winters now but if you pull out 19-20, the other two years have been higher. Cashtown will have more exact stats but guessing 40" here. That’s what I’d go with. The south mountain enhancement pushes us toward 40”. Ive seen as low as 15-20” on bad years and 90” in good years like 09-10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: MA M/D special on the 18Z GFS Here is a different view of the 18z GFS. It still has a period of light snow & mix on Monday for CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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