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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Best chance I see for the 12Z Euro, at this point, is if one of those wandering middle country SLP's gets close enough to the East Coast to induce something to our South (at the coast) that pulls in cold air at the right time.  Otherwise we are on the wrong side of the boundary. 

We are doomed

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55 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I mean I get the whole sentiment that we only get a few months each year to track snow and we might as well enjoy it, but the fact that the window is so small to begin with makes it all the more discouraging when 5-6 weeks of that window is wasted on a pattern like this.

See my posts from a couple of days ago about good Winters that “wasted” several weeks or at least a month of Winter. We rarely have a good beginning, middle & end.

Examples off of the top of my head … 

09-10 - No snow in January or March, but had a great December & epic February.

14-15 - 1 good November snowstorm, nothing in December to mid January. Then we had a great run from late Jan. to March.

 

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

See my posts from a couple of days ago about good Winters that “wasted” several weeks or at least a month of Winter. We rarely have a good beginning, middle & end.

Examples off of the top of my head … 

09-10 - No snow in January or March, but had a great December & epic February.

14-15 - 1 good November snowstorm, nothing in December to mid January. Then we had a great run from late Jan. to March.

 

Out of a bad beginning, middle, and end, a bad beginning is harder to stomach because in the other two scenarios, there’s already been a good part. Some winters don’t have a good part, but it seems every winter has a bad part or two or three.

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

See my posts from a couple of days ago about good Winters that “wasted” several weeks or at least a month of Winter. We rarely have a good beginning, middle & end.

Examples off of the top of my head … 

09-10 - No snow in January or March, but had a great December & epic February.

14-15 - 1 good November snowstorm, nothing in December to mid January. Then we had a great run from late Jan. to March.

 

I concur with this, Blizz.  You often think I am poo pooing things but I am more poo pooing the looks on models.  If one tried to argue with me that we are going bonkers with snow at the end of Dec then I would debate,  but Jan 10th?  Could be a Mega bomb.  The models, teleconnections, etc....are only real solid for 5-7 days out. 

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15 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Out of a bad beginning, middle, and end, a bad beginning is harder to stomach because in the other two scenarios, there’s already been a good part. Some winters don’t have a good part, but it seems every winter has a bad part or two or three.

It is better to have eggs in the basket already....but it will mean a lot more if we do score mid season.  Later season is always a bit sour. 

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34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I concur with this, Blizz.  You often think I am poo pooing things but I am more poo pooing the looks on models.  If one tried to argue with me that we are going bonkers with snow at the end of Dec then I would debate,  but Jan 10th?  Could be a Mega bomb.  The models, teleconnections, etc....are only real solid for 5-7 days out. 

Good points…

I am trying to find our windows of opportunity for snow. Then we need to score when we have the chance.

I usually get super frustrated when we waste a good  opportunity or a period lets us down.

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21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It is better to have eggs in the basket already....but it will mean a lot more if we do score mid season.  Later season is always a bit sour. 

Exactly. 
Last year we had “eggs in the basket” in mid December with the good 1 foot snowstorm for many in the LSV and much more to the north.

But then last year there were no more eggs served until the next big snowstorm on 1/31 into 2/1.

Our Winters come in many different forms over the course of history.

Heck, just look again at the last 40 years of snow at MDT… lots of ups & downs.

 

834C6889-66A0-467C-871A-239E3104263D.png

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3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good points…

I am trying to find our windows of opportunity for snow. Then we need to score when we have the chance.

I usually get super frustrated when we waste a good  opportunity or a period lets us down.

Understood.  Plus you sort of take ownership of it.  For me (and probably everyone), never think some kind of score is being kept.  

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Understood.  Plus you sort of take ownership of it.  For me (and probably everyone), never think some kind of score is being kept.  

I keep score in terms of seasonal snow at MDT just to mark what history will record for our region.

Believe me, this is also very much a backyard sport…so I love winning in my yard. I know that I will usually lose to @Cashtown_Coop , but I have accepted it!

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6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Exactly. 
Last year we had “eggs in the basket” in mid December with the good 1 foot snowstorm for many in the LSV and much more to the north.

But then last year there were no more eggs served until the next big snowstorm on 1/31 into 2/1.

Our Winters come in many different forms over the course of history.

Heck, just look again at the last 40 years of snow at MDT… lots of ups & downs.

 

834C6889-66A0-467C-871A-239E3104263D.png

This dude has eggs in his basket on a train!   Do not think that is a Chattanooga Choo Choo but still..

image.png.b3b1e3f6a22ea41608d46c6690e3a0bf.png

 

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I keep score in terms of seasonal snow at MDT just to mark what history will record for our region.

Believe me, this is also very much a backyard sport…so I love winning in my yard. I know that I will usually lose to @Cashtown_Coop , but I have accepted it!

People already call him big money so he may be getting a big head over all the snow adoration.  Plus if you get an old fashioned just off shore Nor'Easter, Cash and Bubbler will be jealous of you. 

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23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have only been here 3 winters now but if you pull out 19-20, the other two years have been higher.  Cashtown will have more exact stats but guessing 40" here. 

That’s what I’d go with.  The south mountain enhancement pushes us toward 40”.   Ive seen as low as 15-20” on bad years and 90” in good years like 09-10.    

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