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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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5 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yep suppression worries now

It would at least provide the cold for the lake effect belts like up here...but just that annoying dry, NWly and gusty wind across the LSV. One would hope for a clipper pattern to at least evolve out of that.

It's going to be tough to get the East coast storms this year.

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40 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

? It's offering a potential white Christmas to the northern half of PA.

also starting to see the Ens guidance on nooner GEFS/GEPS ticking south for the big day and beyond.  Thats what we've been waiting for.  Not a big step, but definatley seasonal....now for the snow.....dunno, but a positive step for nooner run.  Also seeing ridging being suppresed in central basin.  that would cooincide w/ NAO/AO heading down IMO.

 

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14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It would at least provide the cold for the lake effect belts like up here...but just that annoying dry, NWly and gusty wind across the LSV. One would hope for a clipper pattern to at least evolve out of that.

It's going to be tough to get the East coast storms this year.

That...was what I noticed the most on a lot of winter forecasts that were put out there this year. We're in season where the chances of a big east coast snowstorm are significantly smaller than normal. That's the part that I didn't like the most. 

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27 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

We don't want that either. Suppression city. Funny how it STILL shows rain along the coast even with that cold. Could just be errors...

agreed....and its 300+ hrs out.  As regime change continues to evolve, they should start showing their hand in next couple days...and not just be 1 run.  Watch for that in coming runs.

BTW, Covid was an average cold.  Day 5 and I can feel it breaking up like the glaciers in the Arctic Circle in spring.  If you get Omni, fret not my friends, but I wish you all health and happiness always.

 

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16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

also starting to see the Ens guidance on nooner GEFS/GEPS ticking south for the big day and beyond.  Thats what we've been waiting for.  Not a big step, but definatley seasonal....now for the snow.....dunno, but a positive step for nooner run.  Also seeing ridging being suppresed in central basin.  that would cooincide w/ NAO/AO heading down IMO.

 

 

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That...was what I noticed the most on a lot of winter forecasts that were put out there this year. We're in season where the chances of a big east coast snowstorm are significantly smaller than normal. That's the part that I didn't like the most. 

Although we may not get the east coast storms (thanks to La Nina and fast flow), we can get some nice gradient events/patterns (as long as you're on the right side). In some ways, I'd prefer that over a deep east coast trough. There have been some runs lately that are showing a very similar look in January 2022 to what happened in the winter of 93-94. We all remember how that gradient winter turned out. It was my FAVORITE winter from growing up in Lancaster. Gradient patterns come with risk though in if you're on the wrong side, they're torture. It's looking like (on runs I've seen showing it) the SE Ridge will be squashed enough for many in the northeast to get in on the fun. That's IF...that's the pattern that sets up.

12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

agreed....and its 300+ hrs out.  As regime change continues to evolve, they should start showing their hand in next couple days...and not just be 1 run.  Watch for that in coming runs.

BTW, Covid was an average cold.  Day 5 and I can feel it breaking up like the glaciers in the Arctic Circle in spring.  If you get Omni, fret not my friends, but I wish you all health and happiness always.

 

Hopefully these are the REAL changes starting to unfold in the weather.

I have seen information stating that Omni is more like the common cold. It wouldn't surprise me, as usually viruses that easily spread as less severe than others. Don't let the media panic you.

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23 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

agreed....and its 300+ hrs out.  As regime change continues to evolve, they should start showing their hand in next couple days...and not just be 1 run.  Watch for that in coming runs.

BTW, Covid was an average cold.  Day 5 and I can feel it breaking up like the glaciers in the Arctic Circle in spring.  If you get Omni, fret not my friends, but I wish you all health and happiness always.

 

Omicron is only about 1% of the cases in PA right now.  Did they confirm you had that variant?  Almost all other cases are still Delta.  Omicron is going to be our bigger issue in January and February. 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Apparently some of the other model ensembles look a bit better a few days after this.  This is just the Euro Op. 

Yeah, that’s 12/30, so the second to last play of the first quarter and we’re only down two scores. Plenty of time.

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