Itstrainingtime Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Just now, paweather said: How's the EURO if I can ask? Euro is right when it shows no snow and wrong when it shows snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: It's not done on purpose, just my old way of doing things, sorry. I cannot expand them too much though as it gets too large but can include you. Thanks. That still gets most of the subforum all the way to me and even Sunbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: How's the EURO if I can ask? Just coming in and looking exciting for the Wed storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I think we all busted too low (those that made any type of forecast). Its overachieving. Big surprise. I wonder how warm it will get in 2 weeks? Week of 12/13 looking balmy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 61 sunny Just now, Bubbler86 said: Just coming in and looking exciting for the Wed storm. excellent precip maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 Just now, Voyager said: Thanks. That still gets most of the subforum all the way to me and even Sunbury. I am still stuck in my LSV way of thinking, I will try to do better. I cannot get out to Mag and include you unless I have less stations. The board balks at the pic size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 Just now, paweather said: 61 sunny excellent precip maps? It turns to rain eventually but a good tracker for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: It turns to rain eventually but a good tracker for now. That looks really good several hours of snow before rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 55 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Well at least until 4-5PMish. I personally and not sold on teleconnections being an end all. Then I hope you have a bigger voodoo doll than Voyager, or some other secret source that we don't know about, cause the argument towards warm....as much as I hate it.....cannot be passed by, and won't correct in 4-5 hours. Subtle differences (NAO as its the only tellie that can save mid next week)may help, but the big picture is not a pretty one, and history tells many of us that things are not aligned for the next couple weeks. Sure hope we can sneak something in next week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: 61 sunny excellent precip maps? 4-6" in Palmyra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I am still stuck in my LSV way of thinking, I will try to do better. I cannot get out to Mag and include you unless I have less stations. The board balks at the pic size. Yeah, I know it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: Then I hope you have a bigger voodoo doll than Voyager, or some other secret source that we don't know about, cause the argument towards warm....as much as I hate it.....cannot be passed by, and won't correct in 4-5 hours. Subtle differences (NAO as its the only tellie that can save mid next week)may help, but the big picture is not a pretty one, and history tells many of us that things are not aligned for the next couple weeks. Sure hope we can sneak something in next week though. It was not directed at your post, it was directed at the teleconnection forecasting being as limited as ground truth forecasting. Lots of erroneous assumptions made based on past performances of the numbers. With that said, I do not like the look of Mid Dec at all just because the models are all bailing on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: 4-6" in Palmyra. Love it! I'll take before before the warmth blows it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: It was not directed at your post, it was directed at the teleconnection forecasting being as limited as ground truth forecasting. Lots of erroneous assumptions made based on past performances of the numbers. With that said, I do not like the look of Mid Dec at all just because the models are all bailing on it. NBD. I think we both know enough to not put all eggs in ANY one basket, but as I prefer medium/long range, I'll say that the tellies have done far more right than wrong when using a blend. MJO in 3-4-5 just doesnt get it done without help from AO/NAO domains (again, NAO is saving grace for next week - IF and only IF the neutral looks have any merit). Otherwise please break out your secret santa, and let him beat up on the voodo doll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Euro is right when it shows no snow and wrong when it shows snow. It is definitely no longer the king....just a jester like the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: NBD. I think we both know enough to not put all eggs in ANY one basket, but as I prefer medium/long range, I'll say that the tellies have done far more right than wrong when using a blend. MJO in 3-4-5 just doesnt get it done without help from AO/NAO domains (again, NAO is saving grace for next week - IF and only IF the neutral looks have any merit). Otherwise please break out your secret santa, and let him beat up on the voodo doll. Atomic is already crafting a reply to the bolded area. I do agree that if one wants to forecast long range and go with blended averages, the tellies are a much better route than the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Atomic is already crafting a reply to the bolded area. I do agree that if one wants to forecast long range and go with blended averages, the tellies are a much better route than the models. LOL. Cant wait for that one.... Models typically correct to tellies, and not tellies to the models.....and have shown this many times when that a look from a week out sometimes goes poof....as its often just a correction to the base state. NAO next week shows enough variance to keep an eye out but overall....its shades closed for me and A/C for Trainer. Those who "know me" here, know I rarely do this, cause I like some here love the search for snow.....that said, the ROI just looks negligible at best. Props if you find a way to the promise land though....I'll be first in line to follow pal, and if you see something, please share it, cause I'm happy to add it to my bag of snow trix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 240 Euro is not good news but not nearly as bad as the GFS. SER is there but displaced hundreds of miles to the east. Need it displaced more for good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 23 minutes ago, pasnownut said: LOL. Cant wait for that one.... Models typically correct to tellies, and not tellies to the models.....and have shown this many times when that a look from a week out sometimes goes poof....as its often just a correction to the base state. NAO next week shows enough variance to keep an eye out but overall....its shades closed for me and A/C for Trainer. Those who "know me" here, know I rarely do this, cause I like some here love the search for snow.....that said, the ROI just looks negligible at best. Props if you find a way to the promise land though....I'll be first in line to follow pal, and if you see something, please share it, cause I'm happy to add it to my bag of snow trix. I have been leaning more warminista (in a sense of how I think it may go vs. what I want) so far late fall and early winter so not really panhandling around looking for snow in places I will not find any. But I do post what the models show regardless of how correct they may end up. More importantly, let's use the word tricks instead of trix, right chief? LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 Clouds moving in here. Made it to 63 but going back now. Look at Cap City sitting at 63 and MDT at 61. That 67 record was not "too" far from being challenged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Clouds moving in here. Made it to 63 but going back now. Look at Cap City sitting at 63 and MDT at 61. That 67 record was not "too" far from being challenged. 63 here now. Rise in temps has slowed greatly despite a lot of sun. Doubt will go much higher as this time of year we usually max out by 3pm even on sunny days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I have been leaning more warminista (in a sense of how I think it may go vs. what I want) so far late fall and early winter so not really panhandling around looking for snow in places I will not find any. But I do post what the models show regardless of how correct they may end up. More importantly, let's use the word tricks instead of trix, right chief? LOL Duly noted....I try to forget about that MA forum persona as much as possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: More importantly, let's use the word tricks instead of trix, right chief? LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I have been leaning more warminista (in a sense of how I think it may go vs. what I want) so far late fall and early winter so not really panhandling around looking for snow in places I will not find any. But I do post what the models show regardless of how correct they may end up. More importantly, let's use the word tricks instead of trix, right chief? LOL 2nd - let's run far and fast from "trix". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Made it to 60 before the clouds, they have taken over now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Lets hope the King is right. CTP has rain and snow showers next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 2nd - let's run far and fast from "trix". Arguably one of the more arrogant personas I've ever come across. I'm all about good spirited debate, but when someone constantly speaks in "absolute" terms.....that's just poor form. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie is colder then its big brother for the day 6 threat. High in a better spot . Moisture moving in at 144. Would definitely be at least a decent front end . 144 I was watching the HP on the GFS and it was way too far east and return flow cooked us. Lets hope for this one to trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 The GFS on TT is not even to the Wed storm yet but the PAweather 540 line is north of the LSV prior to the system so that is all I need to see unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 55 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The GFS on TT is not even to the Wed storm yet but the PAweather 540 line is north of the LSV prior to the system so that is all I need to see unfortunately. And still the ridiculous heatwave the following weekend. The other models don’t quite agree (yet), but the GFS has been remarkably consistent with this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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