Itstrainingtime Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 54 minutes ago, paweather said: Are we getting closer to the S word? We sure are. One week from tonight, I'll be up late waiting for Santa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 For first time this year, I can see the pattern changing and I believe it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: For first time this year, I can see the pattern changing and I believe it. . Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: We sure are. One week from tonight, I'll be up late waiting for Santa. HAHA! Yes and that man too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Here we go let's go 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: For kicks ....Euro control with a near Christmas miracle. Verbatim a north Pa / NY crusher ...a bit more dig for the SC Pa and N.Md . Plenty of time to remedy that If we can get blocking established, it could help to slow it down and allow more cold to work in for norther/westers. It's been a while since we've seen this look. No matter the result, it's perty... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: If we can get blocking established, it could help to slow it down and allow more cold to work in for norther/westers. It's been a while since we've seen this look. No matter the result, it's perty... Good results would be the most perty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just a reminder that as we are only starting transition period, it is no slam dunk pattern, as we need zonal look evolve into hopefully a more troughy look here in the east, otherwise its nutballs above or below us and verbatim we dont have a lot of wiggle room w/ zonal look, so set expectations reasonably, and lets hope for a couple weather presents from Santa next week n beyond. At the minimum, cold will be close enough to wake up some snow weenies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Good results would be the most perty! yep, but remember....the heartbreak hotel always has vacancies..... Hoping that the next few days show more definitive signals for EOY and start of new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: yep, but remember....the heartbreak hotel always has vacancies..... Hoping that the next few days show more definitive signals for EOY and start of new year. Yep Heartbreak hotel is alive for sure but I am taking the risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Yep Heartbreak hotel is alive for sure but I am taking the risk enough being seen/shown that while the risk for individual wins still remains low, the overall risk is worth sliding a few chips into the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 White Christmas, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 12/23 event went wrong way w/ spacing/cold....blah blah blah. Christmas day IMO is just snow TV as blocking not really established enough to do the trick and force that vort further south and under, so I'm not sure how much energy is left when Santa arrives w/ his stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 38 minutes ago, TimB84 said: White Christmas, anyone? and if that one doesnt work, the one a couple days later looks good on a weather map....so far. We gotta pull for a bit more southerly jog w/ the cold and it could present a few chances for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: and if that one doesnt work, the one a couple days later looks good on a weather map....so far. We gotta pull for a bit more southerly jog w/ the cold and it could present a few chances for sure. Yeah not an ideal look for sure but it’s improving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Yeah not an ideal look for sure but it’s improving. and if we can get the boundary a little further south, I'd think some clippers would likely give you/some of us a shot at some snow. Looks active nontheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Also have to pretend I didn’t look at the CMC. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Also have to pretend I didn’t look at the CMC. Very nice GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 CMC is smoking a pipe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 NAO/AO continue to show more weight to negative PNA while solidly negative starts to head up which would give credence to Lose A Toes suggestion that we might....just mighty be headed into 2022 w/ some winter opps. as as it should open the window notably for the east. Lastly MJO looks like we are headed solidly for 7. Key is, can we get to 8. If one follows trends, this is trending better. Just things to watch as we wait. If you want big winter, we want NW corner of MJO plots to verify. That'd be our keys to sustained chances to winter wonderland. OTOH if that dive twds COD verifies.....we'll need all the above tellies in our favor to overcome any muted MJO signals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Christmas could be a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: CMC is smoking a pipe Nah....it just shows what the wrong side of better times looks like. The persistence of ridging in the central basin surely looks to be the most prominent feature and one that we cant deny or dismiss until we progress towards EOY. We've had quite a few years that were relatively quite until after Xmas, so this isnt anything outlandish IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I agree with the sentiments above that chances will increase as we head into the latter half of December and into the New Year. However, I would caution that our biggest risk in a -EPO, -PNA, west based -NAO pattern is cold and dry. Shortwaves will want to eject out of the SW and squeeze underneath the block. That typically lends credence towards weakening and shredding of the shortwaves. Or, if the block is too strong/west the systems will dive underneath us and whiff. Central PA is typically better off in these cases anyway compared to EPA or NYC/NJ... but it's still something to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Newman said: I agree with the sentiments above that chances will increase as we head into the latter half of December and into the New Year. However, I would caution that our biggest risk in a -EPO, -PNA, west based -NAO pattern is cold and dry. Shortwaves will want to eject out of the SW and squeeze underneath the block. That typically lends credence towards weakening and shredding of the shortwaves. Or, if the block is too strong/west the systems will dive underneath us and whiff. Central PA is typically better off in these cases anyway compared to EPA or NYC/NJ... but it's still something to watch. what you stated screams zonal and only one you forgot was AO which also looks to be heading favorably, which gives us chances to be on the colder side of solutions. Western and northern PA would approve. Here in SE, yeah, we get leftovers at best. Just gotta hope one of em lays down the goods and then I'll complain a lot less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, pasnownut said: what you stated screams zonal and only one you forgot was AO which also looks to be heading favorably, which gives us chances to be on the colder side of solutions. Western and northern PA would approve. Here in SE, yeah, we get leftovers at best. Just gotta hope one of em lays down the goods and then I'll complain a lot less I'll do a JI! *** That didn't make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 47 minutes ago, Newman said: I agree with the sentiments above that chances will increase as we head into the latter half of December and into the New Year. However, I would caution that our biggest risk in a -EPO, -PNA, west based -NAO pattern is cold and dry. Shortwaves will want to eject out of the SW and squeeze underneath the block. That typically lends credence towards weakening and shredding of the shortwaves. Or, if the block is too strong/west the systems will dive underneath us and whiff. Central PA is typically better off in these cases anyway compared to EPA or NYC/NJ... but it's still something to watch. Yes. I literally offered the same thought a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Did anybody look at the EURO yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, paweather said: Did anybody look at the EURO yet? It is only out until 120 but heat tomorrow then seasonal/dry through the 120ish period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: It is only out until 120 but heat tomorrow then seasonal/dry through the 120ish period. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 This looks great on the GFS some digital snow to enjoy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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