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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-mslp-0455200.thumb.png.758ab4b7b7d42ea6c99881230f5ec970.pngFor kicks ....Euro control with a near Christmas miracle.  Verbatim a north Pa / NY crusher ...a bit more dig for the SC Pa and N.Md . Plenty of time to remedy that :whistle:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-vort500_z500-0455200.png

If we can get blocking established, it could help to slow it down and allow more cold to work in for norther/westers.  It's been a while since we've seen this look.  No matter the result, it's perty...

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Just a reminder that as we are only starting transition period, it is no slam dunk pattern, as we need zonal look evolve into hopefully a more troughy look here in the east, otherwise its nutballs above or below us and verbatim we dont have a lot of wiggle room w/ zonal look, so set expectations reasonably, and lets hope for a couple weather presents from Santa next week n beyond.  At the minimum, cold will be close enough to wake up some snow weenies.

 

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12/23 event went wrong way w/ spacing/cold....blah blah blah.  

Christmas day IMO is just snow TV as blocking not really established enough to do the trick and force that vort further south and under, so I'm not sure how much energy is left when Santa arrives w/ his stuff.  

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Just now, pasnownut said:

and if that one doesnt work, the one a couple days later looks good on a weather map....so far.  We gotta pull for a bit more southerly jog w/ the cold and it could present a few chances for sure.

Yeah not an ideal look for sure but it’s improving.

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NAO/AO continue to show more weight to negative

Ensemble Mean NAO OutlookEnsemble Mean AO Outlook

PNA while solidly negative starts to head up which would give credence to Lose A Toes suggestion that we might....just mighty be headed into 2022 w/ some winter opps. as as it should open the window notably for the east.  

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook

 

Lastly MJO looks like we are headed solidly for 7.  Key is, can we get to 8.  If one follows trends, this is trending better.  Just things to watch as we wait.  If you want big winter, we want NW corner of MJO plots to verify.  That'd be our keys to sustained chances to winter wonderland.  OTOH if that dive twds COD verifies.....we'll need all the above tellies in our favor to overcome any muted MJO signals.

GFS MJO index ensemble plume

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

CMC is smoking a pipe

Nah....it just shows what the wrong side of better times looks like.  The persistence of ridging in the central basin surely looks to be the most prominent feature and one that we cant deny or dismiss until we progress towards EOY.  We've had quite a few years that were relatively quite until after Xmas, so this isnt anything outlandish IMO.

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I agree with the sentiments above that chances will increase as we head into the latter half of December and into the New Year. However, I would caution that our biggest risk in a -EPO, -PNA, west based -NAO pattern is cold and dry. Shortwaves will want to eject out of the SW and squeeze underneath the block. That typically lends credence towards weakening and shredding of the shortwaves. Or, if the block is too strong/west the systems will dive underneath us and whiff. Central PA is typically better off in these cases anyway compared to EPA or NYC/NJ... but it's still something to watch.

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1 minute ago, Newman said:

I agree with the sentiments above that chances will increase as we head into the latter half of December and into the New Year. However, I would caution that our biggest risk in a -EPO, -PNA, west based -NAO pattern is cold and dry. Shortwaves will want to eject out of the SW and squeeze underneath the block. That typically lends credence towards weakening and shredding of the shortwaves. Or, if the block is too strong/west the systems will dive underneath us and whiff. Central PA is typically better off in these cases anyway compared to EPA or NYC/NJ... but it's still something to watch.

what you stated screams zonal and only one you forgot was AO which also looks to be heading favorably, which gives us chances to be on the colder side of solutions.  Western and northern PA would approve.  Here in SE, yeah, we get leftovers at best.  Just gotta hope one of em lays down the goods and then I'll complain a lot less ^_^

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11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

what you stated screams zonal and only one you forgot was AO which also looks to be heading favorably, which gives us chances to be on the colder side of solutions.  Western and northern PA would approve.  Here in SE, yeah, we get leftovers at best.  Just gotta hope one of em lays down the goods and then I'll complain a lot less ^_^

I'll do a JI! *** That didn't make sense :D

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47 minutes ago, Newman said:

I agree with the sentiments above that chances will increase as we head into the latter half of December and into the New Year. However, I would caution that our biggest risk in a -EPO, -PNA, west based -NAO pattern is cold and dry. Shortwaves will want to eject out of the SW and squeeze underneath the block. That typically lends credence towards weakening and shredding of the shortwaves. Or, if the block is too strong/west the systems will dive underneath us and whiff. Central PA is typically better off in these cases anyway compared to EPA or NYC/NJ... but it's still something to watch.

Yes. I literally offered the same thought a couple of days ago. 

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