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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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10 hours ago, TimB84 said:

The only thing I’ll add about “normals” is this, and I think I’ve said this before: seasonable temperatures are just fine if you don’t simply oscillate between normal and well above normal like what seems to happen a lot. The last time MDT recorded a negative double digit temp departure for a day was way back on 6/23. How many double digit positive departures have occurred between then and now? 22.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=ctp

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31 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like a better then average chance at landing a clipper or 2 before the NY and probably a reasonable shot at a ns sw digging far enough for a Miller B type storm as well in the pattern setting up . Hell...I'll take a couple 1-3" clippers and scraps from a Miller B to finish out December :D

Absolutely! 100% this!

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58 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nowhere to go but under the block :popcorn:

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-instant_ptype-0520000.png

The models the last day or so have started to recognize & show influence from the blocking. 
This GFS run shows it well on the 26th.

I will take my chances with this look.

Not a major storm pattern for now, but I will take a few Advisory level events or front end snow to mix type of events to get this Winter going.

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The models the last day or so have started to recognize & show influence from the blocking. 
This GFS run shows it well on the 26th.

I will take my chances with this look.

Not a major storm pattern for now, but I will take a few Advisory level events or front end snow to mix type of events to get this Winter going.

GFS much better trends today versus yesterday let’s hope trends continue our way. 

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50 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like a better then average chance at landing a clipper or 2 before the NY and probably a reasonable shot at a ns sw digging far enough for a Miller B type storm as well in the pattern setting up . Hell...I'll take a couple 1-3" clippers and scraps from a Miller B to finish out December :D

I’ll take anything that lays in my sidewalk. 

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12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

HH Eps leaves more room for a  decent climb up to NC at least ...compared to the 0z run . Decent shift ..still not good enough and still exit stage right lol and definitely a longgg shot but worth a nod I guess .

18z

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0152800.thumb.png.2db223aa769f2ab21888ad34f57bc82b.png

0z 

1494212019_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0152800(1).thumb.png.3f29115599c9a8914c13fcf71521e1a3.png

It’s just a matter of time before a storm goes our way with the blocking that’s developing.

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Yesterday I wrote about the oddness of Williamsport getting over 24" of snow on Dec. 16-17, 2020 and then breaking our temperature record of 58 a year later.  

I didn't realize that Thursday was a scorcher all over the Northeast.  I happened to see a chart posted by Buffalo Weather in the Upstate NY subforum that showed cities well to our north such as Syracuse hitting 67 and Montpelier, VT hitting 61 when here in Williamsport we only hit 60.  

At 5am we are 51 and will be about the same at 5pm.  I wish we were not getting daytime rain again for the second Saturday in a row with Christmas almost here and I am sure I am not the only one thinking that way.

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That center of high pressure over Greenland looks like a west-based NAO.  Wasn't it only a few days ago that it was east-based?  I think MAG was talking about that.

A pretty incredible overnight with temps above 50 the whole night.  I would think that's fairly rare.  I'm down now to 49 and dropping very slowly.  High of 63 yesterday, and it felt great!

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8 minutes ago, paweather said:

Are we getting closer to the S word?

There has been mounting evidence for a while now.  Sure its easier to not believe or pooh pooh cause one feels snakebit or doesnt like what they see...whatevs, but like it or not, I've been posting info/maps/indicies in support of it for a while now. 

Does it mean its gonna snow....hell no....I'm not that stupid, but does it mean we are headed for better chances....absofrigginlutely, and thats all I've been in search of. 

Time will tell, but seeing op runs of last day or so, says they are latching onto appreciable changes upstairs that has been showing on Ens guidance for a little while now.  another tool is to watch Op/Ens and when they show less divergence, odd's go up a couple ticks more. 

It hasnt been easy to get here, and lets hope trends continue so we can hopefully lay down some white before the next warmup looms.  When that happens...??? But I'm sure some are already searching for it, as that seems easier to find/discuss of late.  Can't deny that.

Working from home, so I might be able to check in a bit more (yes....I've got THAT bug).  

 

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

There has been mounting evidence for a while now.  Sure its easier to not believe or pooh pooh cause one feels snakebit or doesnt like what they see...whatevs, but like it or not, I've been posting info/maps/indicies in support of it for a while now. 

Does it mean its gonna snow....hell no....I'm not that stupid, but does it mean we are headed for better chances....absofrigginlutely, and thats all I've been in search of. 

Time will tell, but seeing op runs of last day or so, says they are latching onto appreciable changes upstairs that has been showing on Ens guidance for a little while now.  another tool is to watch Op/Ens and when they show less divergence, odd's go up a couple ticks more. 

It hasnt been easy to get here, and lets hope trends continue so we can hopefully lay down some white before the next warmup looms.  When that happens...??? But I'm sure some are already searching for it, as that seems easier to find/discuss of late.  Can't deny that.

Working from home, so I might be able to check in a bit more (yes....I've got THAT bug).  

 

Good stuff NUT!

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26 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

That center of high pressure over Greenland looks like a west-based NAO.  Wasn't it only a few days ago that it was east-based?  I think MAG was talking about that.

A pretty incredible overnight with temps above 50 the whole night.  I would think that's fairly rare.  I'm down now to 49 and dropping very slowly.  High of 63 yesterday, and it felt great!

When I left home this morning I was at 51, which was the lowest temp at that point. Got to 67 yesterday.

Yes, the block is modeled in a better position for us and our snow chances. Positive signs are definitely showing! 

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9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

There has been mounting evidence for a while now.  Sure its easier to not believe or pooh pooh cause one feels snakebit or doesnt like what they see...whatevs, but like it or not, I've been posting info/maps/indicies in support of it for a while now. 

Does it mean its gonna snow....hell no....I'm not that stupid, but does it mean we are headed for better chances....absofrigginlutely, and thats all I've been in search of. 

Time will tell, but seeing op runs of last day or so, says they are latching onto appreciable changes upstairs that has been showing on Ens guidance for a little while now.  another tool is to watch Op/Ens and when they show less divergence, odd's go up a couple ticks more. 

It hasnt been easy to get here, and lets hope trends continue so we can hopefully lay down some white before the next warmup looms.  When that happens...??? But I'm sure some are already searching for it, as that seems easier to find/discuss of late.  Can't deny that.

Working from home, so I might be able to check in a bit more (yes....I've got THAT bug).  

 

Perfectly stated. Odds are on the increase for wintry weather during the final 7 or so days of the year. As you said, no guarantees, but at least the winter weather convo is realistic. 

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