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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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8 hours ago, Superstorm said:


Me 2. I am really enjoying this weather. I love snow, but don’t like it too cold.

The worst weather in winter is warm and wet or cold and dry.

I’ll take warm and dry if I can’t have the snow.


.

The older that I get, I agree with you.

I’ll take warm and dry if I can’t have the snow.

 

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2 minutes ago, paweather said:

No doubt on the GFS what a change for a day

Glad you held on to the ledge without jumping (or called time out right before snapping the punt). It's not 4th down yet.  I saw someone say we were in the first half of quarter one (or down one) the other day...I think that is too optimistic with nothing come the rest of this week but IMO first down has ended and we are in the second quarter/on second down now. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Glad you held on to the ledge without jumping (or called time out right before snapping the punt). It's not 4th down yet.  I saw someone say we were in the first half of quarter one (or down one) the other day...I think that is too optimistic with nothing come the rest of this week but IMO first down has ended and we are in the second quarter/on second down now. 

Yep, you got it!

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Glad you held on to the ledge without jumping (or called time out right before snapping the punt). It's not 4th down yet.  I saw someone say we were in the first half of quarter one (or down one) the other day...I think that is too optimistic with nothing come the rest of this week but IMO first down has ended and we are in the second quarter/on second down now. 

I think that's a fair analogy. I was thinking about this and the whole "punt winter" idea on the drive to the office this morning. Winter is young (even by met standards, we're only 2 weeks deep) so there is so much ahead of us. My only "frustration" is that I most appreciate snow during peak snow retention season, which is now through January. In that regard, we're losing precious time somewhat quickly. 

By average, February is our snowiest month of the year. It's also the time when on sunny days we see our beloved pack disappear quickly - after the 2 huge February storms in 2010, I lost 8.5" of pack the day following the 2nd storm. It was a sunny, 32 degree day. We wouldn't have lost half as much if it was a sunny, 32 degree day today. 

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28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The general look of the OP GFS is quite interesting post Christmas.  Nut said it a few days ago but more zonal with Nutballs vs cutters.

Yeah unfortunately it may be a step down process, and not straight into the money panels.  Still seeing the central basin ridging trying to play spoiler, but as we are approching peak climo, the cold is building and w/ NAO trending negative and AO neutral/neg ish (and if one looks below, several members try to go solidly negative - fits the cold Jan that some have suggested.  That said, it would likely suppress central ridging, which should hopefully correct on the model runs as we move forward.  As Mag suggested tho, east based NAO is not ideal, as it give ridging a chance to play spoiler.  More west based and that ridge goes poof...

All that said, it still looks like better times ahead cold wise.  Just gotta time it right for the snow. 

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook

Ensemble Mean AO Outlook

MJO still looks better and I think the loopdedoop is gone.  Looks more like its headed for 7....but i dont have my cheaters on :).

 

GFS MJO index ensemble plume

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10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I think that's a fair analogy. I was thinking about this and the whole "punt winter" idea on the drive to the office this morning. Winter is young (even by met standards, we're only 2 weeks deep) so there is so much ahead of us. My only "frustration" is that I most appreciate snow during peak snow retention season, which is now through January. In that regard, we're losing precious time somewhat quickly. 

By average, February is our snowiest month of the year. It's also the time when on sunny days we see our beloved pack disappear quickly - after the 2 huge February storms in 2010, I lost 8.5" of pack the day following the 2nd storm. It was a sunny, 32 degree day. We wouldn't have lost half as much if it was a sunny, 32 degree day today. 

I actually did think of your previous post, months or weeks ago, as to December being your favorite snow time.  it's not over yet.   I think we have a better final week of December than some previous "bad winters".   But anyone punting January or February is just joking, I would hope, at this point. 

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8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah unfortunately it may be a step down process, and not straight into the money panels.  Still seeing the central basin ridging trying to play spoiler, but as we are approching peak climo, the cold is building and w/ NAO trending negative and AO neutral/neg ish (and if one looks below, several members try to go solidly negative - fits the cold Jan that some have suggested.  That said, it would likely suppress central ridging, which should hopefully correct on the model runs as we move forward.  As Mag suggested tho, east based NAO is not ideal, as it give ridging a chance to play spoiler.  More west based and that ridge goes poof...

All that said, it still looks like better times ahead cold wise.  Just gotta time it right for the snow. 

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook

Ensemble Mean AO Outlook

MJO still looks better and I think the loopdedoop is gone.  Looks more like its headed for 7....but i dont have my cheaters on :).

 

GFS MJO index ensemble plume

That is all I like to see when the MJO comes up.  "Who knows" vs. "It's defintely going to". 

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9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I actually did think of your previous post, months or weeks ago, as to December being your favorite snow time.  it's not over yet.   I think we have a better final week of December than some previous "bad winters".   But anyone punting January or February is just joking, I would hope, at this point. 

Agree with you on all accounts.

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