MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 The big issue I see with the overall pattern getting into the second half of the month is despite nice trending on teleconnection forecasts with the EPO in the process of flipping negative,an eventual development of a -NAO (though looked more east based) and a AO being neutral/somewhat negative (more negative as time goes on with GEFS), the PNA is forecast to stay really negative throughout the period on all models/ensembles. The EPO going negative will take away the overwhelming Pacific air source region and allow the cold air to push into the US, but the western trough (-PNA) implies southeast ridging in response. For us, the opportunity is there for a well timed system to give us maybe our first decent event of the season (such as what the 18z GFS has near the 21st). It could also not materialize at all or it could and get wiped out by a warmer system as the aforementioned pattern alignment probably puts the storm track pretty close to us. We need west based negative NAO/eastern Canadian blocking to force significant cold into our area if we’re going to work with a -PNA. MJO plays into all this as well, forecasts “backtrack” the MJO towards or even back into a 6 for a time before making the move to 8. Not a very big MJO expert but tropical forcing/convection takes time to make a pattern response in the mid-latitudes. I do read JB here and there when I’m using the Weatherbell stuff and he did point out the typhoon tracking towards the Philippines. That extra source of convection (in the Phase 6 region I believe) is the cause of the MJO chart showing that “backtracking” toward 6. With regards to the MJO I think we need to see the definitive move to 8 before we see some more significant cold in the pattern for us, and that could take some time. Again like I said the other day, I think the pattern we’re looking for is coming but it could come after Christmas. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 The 0z GFS had another good looking run with the coastal storm potential for next Monday night & Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Check out the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 The 0z Canadian also has the storm early next week on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 The 0z Euro has the storm but takes it out off of the coast instead of up, but it wouldn’t take many changes to potentially get a better result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Sterling mentioned the 12/21 threat in their overnight disco. So that's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 9 hours ago, anotherman said: I’m sure he hyped the December 20-January 20 period as being super cold and snowy and said the east coast would be brought to its knees trying to keep everyone warm. It was all about the Tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 42 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Sterling mentioned the 12/21 threat in their overnight disco. So that's something. Like I said to Pa yesterday, its a step down process, and as it has a zonalish look to it (moving forward), it doesnt take much distance to be white rain vs white gold, so we need to mentally prepare for that possibility. I think i suggested "ankle deep" regarding the weekend cold, but that may be what we deal w/ for some time before a more appreciable change (hopefully for the better) takes hold. Mag brought up the loopdedoo in P6 of the MJO plot and yes, I saw it, but factored that into my writing this week off. That said, IF that happens, or a stall, and less movement out twds 7/8/1, then we may be back to doom n gloom. I'm betting on the pronounced move into 7 and hopefully 8 as our saving grace. That said, I only know what the MJO plots correlate to, and would not profess to know the factors that play into each of them (wrt ENSO). Lets hope the possible trends were seeing keep progressing beyond this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Like I said to Pa yesterday, its a step down process, and as it has a zonalish look to it (moving forward), it doesnt take much distance to be white rain vs white gold, so we need to mentally prepare for that possibility. I think i suggested "ankle deep" regarding the weekend cold, but that may be what we deal w/ for some time before a more appreciable change (hopefully for the better) takes hold. Mag brought up the loopdedoo in P6 of the MJO plot and yes, I saw it, but factored that into my writing this week off. That said, IF that happens, or a stall, and less movement out twds 7/8/1, then we may be back to doom n gloom. I'm betting on the pronounced move into 7 and hopefully 8 as our saving grace. That said, I only know what the MJO plots correlate to, and would not profess to know the factors that play into each of them (wrt ENSO). Lets hope the possible trends were seeing keep progressing beyond this week. Let's hope we need a good one before Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 I dropped to 26 last night, 'twas a good night for inversion cooling. Almost all of the models had a nice depiction of the SLP with regards to early next week on the 0z suite. Let's hope for more of that as the week progresses. In the meantime, enjoy these pleasant days. Toodles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I dropped to 26 last night, 'twas a good night for inversion cooling. Almost all of the models had a nice depiction of the SLP with regards to early next week on the 0z suite. Let's hope for more of that as the week progresses. In the meantime, enjoy these pleasant days. Toodles. Yes it was. I only made it down to 31 overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 It was 25 here this morning when I took the kiddo to the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Already over 40 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, paweather said: Already over 40 here. Almost 50 here. (48.2) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Almost 50 here. (48.2) Yep shooting up for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Almost 50 here. (48.2) 66 and cloudy. 70 is in the bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: 66 and cloudy. 70 is in the bag. Sun is needed for January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I dropped to 26 last night, 'twas a good night for inversion cooling. Almost all of the models had a nice depiction of the SLP with regards to early next week on the 0z suite. Let's hope for more of that as the week progresses. In the meantime, enjoy these pleasant days. Toodles. Toodles to you as well, my good chap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yes it was. I only made it down to 31 overnight. You can't hang with me on those clear calm nights pal! Much like I normally can't hang with you in regards to rain totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 53 here now. don't hate me, but it feels nice on this old guys Arthritis! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 44 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: You can't hang with me on those clear calm nights pal! Much like I normally can't hang with you in regards to rain totals I can't wait for a clear, calm night with fresh snow cover when you report -8 and I'm sitting at +4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: 66 and cloudy. 70 is in the bag. Looks like 80s in store for a good chunk of FL later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 12z GFS has high pressure pushing the storm early next week way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Damn-still 40 up here at 11:30AM. Crazy the difference in 120 miles sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Kiss of death. I’ll take the blame for the snowless winter this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Kiss of death. I’ll take the blame for the snowless winter this season. You mother ****er 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, TimB84 said: 12z GFS has high pressure pushing the storm early next week way south. I'll take that over a cold rain every day. Every day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 31 minutes ago, TimB84 said: 12z GFS has high pressure pushing the storm early next week way south. Was going to post in the western PA thread that overnight runs looked like we may have something to track early next week. Glad I didn't with the way 12z looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 minute ago, dj3 said: Was going to post in the western PA thread that overnight runs looked like we may have something to track early next week. Glad I didn't with the way 12z looked. Our thread is dead and that says everything we need to know about what has transpired so far this winter, unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 41 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I'll take that over a cold rain every day. Every day. Forecast high for me today was 53, currently sitting at 54. Another bust with high temps. Oh, and I'm not going to lie...I'm digging this weather right now. It's another beautiful day. Never thought I'd feel this way about 50s in the middle of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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