Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[pasnownut]

29 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, once again the storm is generally falling apart for Central PA in terms of anything really significant. Probably a moderate event for most. For me it is definitely colder and could be a surprise couple of inches, but in general the storm seems lamer/strung out instead so it doesn’t really nail anyone. Oh well. 

I wouldn't be too worried yet.  There is the inevitable north shift that will likely come at Happy Hour or overnight runs.  At the minimum a widespread event for many/most to get something is still in play.  

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I just had to bun a lot of you weenies.  All of a sudden we're poo-pooing 3-6"??  That's warning criteria down here...and it's almost mid-March!  CTP mentions in the a.m. write up that those to the west missing the heavy QPF are going to get good ratios, so can we temper the bridge jumping?  Now if all the 12Z runs shift east...I'll be right there with you!

People who went from 15" to 3" are more than welcome to discuss the why's. 

[Bubbler86]

Rgem with a nice band of mod+ snow up through PA

 

[Bubbler86]

Front a bit slower on the RGEM. 

[paweather]

Overperformer 6" plus under 3"-4"

[anotherman]

[Bubbler86]

Oh boy, Bomb Cyclone. 

[Bubbler86]

Just ran through all the 12Z's out already...including the lesser revered...and the spread is all over the place.   No more 1-2 feet in Central PA looks but lots of RGEM and Rap like large scale snows for large areas but an even amount of far eastern looks where someone like MDT gets 2.5".   Nam 3K is one of them.  Should be an exciting HH run tonight.   

[GrandmasterB]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Just ran through all the 12Z's out already...including the lesser revered...and the spread is all over the place.   No more 1-2 feet in Central PA looks but lots of RGEM and Rap like large scale snows for large areas but an even amount of far eastern looks where someone like MDT gets 2.5".   Nam 3K is one of them.  Should be an exciting HH run tonight.   

I went back through some early pages and outside of one NAM and one RGEM run nothing showed 2 feet.  Even those runs were like 12-15" in the absolute max areas.  Certainly not enough to warrant a forecast of 1-2 feet.  Hopefully it's a nice spread of those who get a precip max (maybe east but who knows) or higher ratios and everyone can get a nice event!  

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I went back through some early pages and outside of one NAM and one RGEM run nothing showed 2 feet.  Even those runs were like 12-15" in the absolute max areas.  Certainly not enough to warrant a forecast of 1-2 feet.  Hopefully it's a nice spread of those who get a precip max (maybe east but who knows) or higher ratios and everyone can get a nice event!  

It was mostly the Nam showing the extreme totals at CTP but up until recently, the eastern LSV was mostly on the outside looking in and SE PA was definitely not slated to get much snow (model wise).   This was a pretty common look just 24-48 hours ago. 

 

[MAG5035]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Just ran through all the 12Z's out already...including the lesser revered...and the spread is all over the place.   No more 1-2 feet in Central PA looks but lots of RGEM and Rap like large scale snows for large areas but an even amount of far eastern looks where someone like MDT gets 2.5".   Nam 3K is one of them.  Should be an exciting HH run tonight.   

There wasn’t a point I’ve seen anywhere near 2 feet being portrayed anywhere in PA with this system. The NAM and couple global runs (think mainly the EC and Canadian) have tried to present a 10+ swath at times but that was like a 10-15” type range. I did look back and saw the 18z NAM that was posted last night. That still seemed like a pretty big exception to what has mostly looked like more of a 6-10” type event on the high end. 

That’s the thing with this, up through the first part of yesterday this was still looking like a western half of PA bullseye. We’ve made a pretty big shift east to get the LSV fully involved. What that also means is this has became more progressive to get us there, so that’s going to take the top end off accumulation potential. It still looks like it could easily be the biggest snowfall of the season in parts of the LSV regardless, so I guess it’s all in one’s perspective of what’s a good storm. 

 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

There wasn’t a point I’ve seen anywhere near 2 feet being portrayed anywhere in PA with this system. The NAM and couple global runs (think mainly the EC and Canadian) have tried to present a 10+ swath at times but that was like a 10-15” type range. I did look back and saw the 18z NAM that was posted last night. That still seemed like a pretty big exception to what has mostly looked like more of a 6-10” type event on the high end. 

That’s the thing with this, up through the first part of yesterday this was still looking like a western half of PA bullseye. We’ve made a pretty big shift east to get the LSV fully involved. What that also means is this has became more progressive to get us there, so that’s going to take the top end off accumulation potential. It still looks like it could easily be the biggest snowfall of the season in parts of the LSV regardless, so I guess it’s all in one’s perspective of what’s a good storm. 

 

The large change in some of the models, from focusing in western PA to Eastern PA, is what I was alluding too but I just posted a GFS map showing over 1 1/2 feet across a large swath of the Northern border counties.  Some large scale changes in snow accums from 24-36 hours ago. 

[Bubbler86]

12Z GFS

 

[GrandmasterB]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z GFS

 

 

Looked like a general (but small) increase across the board vs. the 6Z run.  I'll gladly take a widespread 4-6!  Will be interesting with the east move if the counties under the watch get upgraded to warnings.

[Superstorm]

Looked like a general (but small) increase across the board vs. the 6Z run.  I'll gladly take a widespread 4-6!  Will be interesting with the east move if the counties under the watch get upgraded to warnings.

Would imagine.


.

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Looked like a general (but small) increase across the board vs. the 6Z run.  I'll gladly take a widespread 4-6!  Will be interesting with the east move if the counties under the watch get upgraded to warnings.

Yea, I was speaking to someone near Baltimore who had no idea snow may be coming.  But I fully agree, 4-6 is great for tomorrow as far as my area. 

[Bubbler86]

Latest Rap.  Nice deform band starts setting up the last few hours of snow. 

 

[paweather]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Latest Rap.  Nice deform band starts setting up the last few hours of snow. 

 

I like this. 

[paweather]

GFS has a bit of a clipper Sunday night

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

GFS has a bit of a clipper Sunday night

Snow on snow is always good. 

[paweather]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Snow on snow is always good. 

Might as well add to it. 

[paweather]

we are now at warning status

[pasnownut]

52 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Would imagine.


.

If HH runs continue the theme, I'd think so, even with any shift back NW, it looks like we are soundly in the game.  Low end warning criteria is welcome when we've had what we've had to date.  Even if goonie numbers start popping back on NAM and we get all giddy at HH, were all seasoned enough to not buy into any 12+ totals as one knows to take that times .6 for a more realistic number.  

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

If HH runs continue the theme, I'd think so, even with any shift back NW, it looks like we are soundly in the game.  Low end warning criteria is welcome when we've had what we've had to date.  Even if goonie numbers start popping back on NAM and we get all giddy at HH, were all seasoned enough to not buy into any 12+ totals as one knows to take that times .6 for a more realistic number.  

IF a big IF we get wraparound stuff we can approach double digits but highly not likely. 

[Porsche]

At this point if we get 3 inches of wind driven snow, I'd call that a win and a perfect way to end the season to a not so stellar winter.

[pasnownut]

34 minutes ago, paweather said:

GFS has a bit of a clipper Sunday night

was mentioned on morning disco.  Yeah, this would be a nice way to close the books for some.  Not likely for us as its pretty paltry w/ qpf and would favor norther/westers.  By the time it gets here its drier than a popcorn fart.

 

 

 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

was mentioned on morning disco.  Yeah, this would be a nice way to close the books for some.  Not likely for us as its pretty paltry w/ qpf and would favor norther/westers.  By the time it gets here its drier than a popcorn fart.

 

 

 

LOL!!!!

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

IF a big IF we get wraparound stuff we can approach double digits but highly not likely. 

this may help, but as Mag just suggested, its scootin right along, so deformation bands would likely be short lived, and IMO best in the Poconos where elevation and dynamics could squeeze a bit more white gold out.

 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

this may help, but as Mag just suggested, its scootin right along, so deformation bands would likely be short lived, and IMO best in the Poconos where elevation and dynamics could squeeze a bit more white gold out.

 

I know we need to put the brakes on that Low it is speeding right along to quickly. 

[pasnownut]

Just now, paweather said:

I know we need to put the brakes on that Low it is speeding right along to quickly. 

No HP anchored....so NO brakes.....

Sorry, but what we are seeing now is really best case IMO.  Trough axis is decent, but lack of HP, progressive theme all keep this one from being much more than it currently is being depicted.  That aside, its a potentially nice widespread event that I'd take all day and every day.