Blizzard of 93 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 The 18z EPS & 18z Euro Control crush the LSV tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 For those in the lsv, the good nam is back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: For those in the lsv, the good nam is back. Indeed, here is the 12k NAM at 0z LSV jackpot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 I'll take 3-6" on the deck and call it a winter! Could be nice rates in the morning too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I'll take 3-6" on the deck and call it a winter! Could be nice rates in the morning too. If someone gets that much it will be a race to see if some can survive for snow on snow Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 The 3k NAM also looks good at 10-1 & Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If someone gets that much it will be a race to see if some can survive for snow on snow Saturday. The Saturday storm looks interesting. This could end up being our best snow week of the season if all goes well tomorrow & Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Current temp/dewpoint is 30ºF/23º. My biggest unmixed period of snowfall this winter was the Jan 16th event with 5.2” prior to the mixing and 982mb low going over my head. So having a look at things this evening I honestly give this event a slight chance of beating that here (Thinking about 3” in the backyard is a decent bet). I tend to agree on the elevational nature of this event to a point and marginal sfc temps and whatnot, but I personally think it’s being overplayed with this setup. Like okay, I think most 4-6” or so amounts if they show up are likely going to be in the north-central and/or on the higher parts of the ridge and valley. However, this is a pretty decent slug of moisture coming at us being a southern stream system. If it comes in rocking rate wise right off the bat, elevation is probably going to matter less. Arrival time per the HRRR ranges from a couple hours pre-dawn SW to about 7-9am going LSV to northern tier… thus solar isn’t going to have too much of an influence during the first part of this event. Big question mark for me is right on the southern tier LSV, but even the more northerly HRRR manages a couple inches there. I will say that there is a chance that the southern tier LSV may mix or rain at the very beginning before cooling the column enough to snow when the heavier stuff sets in, so I wouldn’t get too scared right off the bat. I know it feels like I’ve been at odds with CTP’s thinking pretty much every winter event this season when it comes to discussing my thoughts in here, but I do think this warrants an advisory for most or all of CTP’s CWA. Like I said, I think this is elevational to a degree but not enough so to think that a majority of the Sus Valley can’t manage 2” to verify an advisory (or 3” in this neck of the woods). Hope they’re right, because the heavier stuff arrives during a big portion of the morning rush tomorrow. They must be going off of the NBM (national model blend) pretty hard, because this is about the only guidance I can find that jives with their accumulation map well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Current temp/dewpoint is 30ºF/23º. My biggest unmixed period of snowfall this winter was the Jan 16th event with 5.2” prior to the mixing and 982mb low going over my head. So having a look at things this evening I honestly give this event a slight chance of beating that here (Thinking about 3” in the backyard is a decent bet). I tend to agree on the elevational nature of this event to a point and marginal sfc temps and whatnot, but I personally think it’s being overplayed with this setup. Like okay, I think most 4-6” or so amounts if they show up are likely going to be in the north-central and/or on the higher parts of the ridge and valley. However, this is a pretty decent slug of moisture coming at us being a southern stream system. If it comes in rocking rate wise right off the bat, elevation is probably going to matter less. Arrival time per the HRRR ranges from a couple hours pre-dawn SW to about 7-9am going LSV to northern tier… thus solar isn’t going to have too much of an influence during the first part of this event. Big question mark for me is right on the southern tier LSV, but even the more northerly HRRR manages a couple inches there. I will say that there is a chance that the southern tier LSV may mix or rain at the very beginning before cooling the column enough to snow when the heavier stuff sets in, so I wouldn’t get too scared right off the bat. I know it feels like I’ve been at odds with CTP’s thinking pretty much every winter event this season when it comes to discussing my thoughts in here, but I do think this warrants an advisory for most or all of CTP’s CWA. Like I said, I think this is elevational to a degree but not enough so to think that a majority of the Sus Valley can’t manage 2” to verify an advisory (or 3” in this neck of the woods). Hope they’re right, because the heavier stuff arrives during a big portion of the morning rush tomorrow. They must be going off of the NBM (national model blend) pretty hard, because this is about the only guidance I can find that jives with their accumulation map well. Ignore this post if you don’t want to publicly answer, but are you working as a met for a private firm or anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Nice to have 2 events back to back here in early March. I was concerned about temps late this afternoon when it was still in the low 40's, but then despite the clouds the temp kept on dropping all the way back to almost 32.0. It was just up to 31.1 about 10 minutes ago but suddenly has dropped back to 32.7 now but the dew point is 28 and the wet bulb is 31.1. If the snow starts early enough that will send my temp down to at least 31, or maybe even 30. If rates keep up even moderately so that will prevent the temp from rising above 32 until late morning when the majority of the event will be over. Better yet, the Saturday event really could become something sweet with a nice blast of cold coming in behind it until probably Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Snow has begun here, light dusting. 31ºF/26ºF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Rain in York 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 Rain and 34 here. Rgem and HRRR get credit for seeing rain to start this. Long Range Hrrr FTW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 Latest HRRR is pretty much a shutout for the southern 2/3 of the LSV now. Nam's do not look much different down here unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 I’m sitting at 36/27 with rain just now starting to show some signs of transitioning to a wet snow, barely. Looking forward to a nice mid morning thump of white rain but otherwise expect minimal impact here. Keeping the O/U at one inch on non-paved surfaces. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Rain/snow mix In Hagerstown.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Rain/snow mix In Hagerstown. . Here I am sitting a couple hundred feet higher than you, just to your east, and all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Raining and 35. Typical of this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: That darn Waynesboro snow hole It is probably snowing in Waynesboro just not the 'Ville as of yet. If I went up to Pen Mar it is probably snowing there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Under the heavier returns its alot of snow mixing in here . When it's light hardly any flakes . Yea, its fairly light here right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Throw out the models for now. We are getting heavy snow in Pittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Under the heavier returns its alot of snow mixing in here . When it's light hardly any flakes . Same here at this time. The radar was disorganized earlier this morning and the heavy precip was initially pushed off to the southeast of the MD line. Unfortunately that is not what we needed to get a decent snow event going. We needed it to come in like a wall. Hopefully we get a few hours of wet snow this morning and get a couple of inches on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 All rain here in Maytown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Snow here what a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 Surely not perfect but a decent depiction of the variability of the reports this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: A friend in Fairfield sent a video of it snowing pretty good there. A true snow town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 0.3” mod snow 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Snow started around 7:00 am. Snowing off and on. It’s not laying on the road surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 0.3” mod snow 32 Seems its one of those 'West of the mountains is screw zone' days. It is full rain to rain + here. All rain in Gettysburg as well (street cam). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 EC 10-1 for Sat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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