Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Here are CTP’s morning discussion thoughts. Model convergence supports high POPs for a period of wet snow over much of the forecast area between dawn Wednesday into early afternoon, as southern stream shortwave lifts through. The weak surface low is progged to track well south of the area, keeping Pa in the cold air. However, marginal surface temps are likely to result in elevation-dependent accumulations, with ptype changing to light rain in the valleys toward midday. Nearly all locations appear likely to see a small accumulation, but confidence in county-wide advisory totals remains low, so will hold off on headlines for now. Best guess of accumulations based on ensemble mean qpf and thermal profiles ranges from 2-3 inches on the ridgetops to less than an inch in the lower elevations of the Lower Susq Valley. Any slushy road surfaces Wed morning should give way to wet roads by afternoon, due to rising temps and increasing March sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 32 in Rou this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 32 in Rou this AM A balmy 39 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 34 degrees this morning. Picked up 0.42” of rain yesterday. Average wind was 10 mph, Had a 53 mph gust yesterday. Still a few places without power this morning. I was fortunate enough I didn’t lose power. But I have backup Bring the snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: A balmy 39 here. Veritable jungle over there in the historic area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 CTP only calling for 1-2" that is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Looking pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 22 minutes ago, paweather said: CTP only calling for 1-2" that is low. Given all of the concerns that have been mentioned, that doesn't seem low to me. This has coating to perhaps a slushy couple of inches written all over it outside of higher elevations. As usual, I could be very wrong. 34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Veritable jungle over there in the historic area! I was pretty happy to get back to the historic area late last night. I left the Wells Fargo Center and was greeted by flying debris everywhere. It was insane. I knew that when we got on the bridge crossing the Schuylkill River that we were in for a wild ride. It delivered. My wife said that a plane aborted landing while we were on the bridge - I was too scared to look, LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Given all of the concerns that have been mentioned, that doesn't seem low to me. This has coating to perhaps a slushy couple of inches written all over it outside of higher elevations. As usual, I could be very wrong. I was pretty happy to get back to the historic area late last night. I left the Wells Fargo Center and was greeted by flying debris everywhere. It was insane. I knew that when we got on the bridge crossing the Schuylkill River that we were in for a wild ride. It delivered. My wife said that a plane aborted landing while we were on the bridge - I was too scared to look, LOL Yea, hate to be on a bridge when planes are doing anything nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 .08" of rain yesterday with a low of 37, currently at 39. Looks like LNS recorded a 59mph gust with the frontal passage. As for tomorrow morning's snow chances down this way, I'm growing more pessimistic by the hour. Temperature issues abound. The lower levels of the column aren't all that cold and the surface temps are downright problematic. As I said yesterday, dew points at or above freezing don't exactly scream efficient accumulation haha. This is to say nothing of daytime solar effects and lighter intensity periods. Ratios will likely be abysmal. MAG went over most of this yesterday, but for us in the southern reaches of the LSV the issues are mounting. Elevation will be key and I ain't got it. Going with an O/U of 1" for my back yard. As always, I hope to be wrong. Good luck to all but keep expectations in check. Toodles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 The HRRR continues its push north with the snow. Still decent snow in NORTHERN LSV. If the Nam is north, I am pulling the plug down my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, hate to be on a bridge when planes are doing anything nearby. If you're familiar - planes approach PHL from the north and are right beside I95. From the top of the bridge you have a clear shot at watching them land. We always enjoy the added "perk" especially at night time but I wasn't looking anywhere but in front of me last night. Most of the positive snow depth maps I'm seeing for tomorrow are really uninspiring - are the snow maps greatly exaggerating how much will actually accumulate? I guess we'll find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: .08" of rain yesterday with a low of 37, currently at 39. Looks like LNS recorded a 59mph gust with the frontal passage. As for tomorrow morning's snow chances down this way, I'm growing more pessimistic by the hour. Temperature issues abound. The lower levels of the column aren't all that cold and the surface temps are downright problematic. As I said yesterday, dew points at or above freezing don't exactly scream efficient accumulation haha. This is to say nothing of daytime solar effects and lighter intensity periods. Ratios will likely be abysmal. MAG went over most of this yesterday, but for us in the southern reaches of the LSV the issues are mounting. Elevation will be key and I ain't got it. Going with an O/U of 1" for my back yard. As always, I hope to be wrong. Good luck to all but keep expectations in check. Toodles. Yes sir. In complete agreement. I honestly expect very little to show itself as ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 HRRR is good up where I am. This is so typical of a March snow, and it can/will surprise people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Given all of the concerns that have been mentioned, that doesn't seem low to me. This has coating to perhaps a slushy couple of inches written all over it outside of higher elevations. As usual, I could be very wrong. I was pretty happy to get back to the historic area late last night. I left the Wells Fargo Center and was greeted by flying debris everywhere. It was insane. I knew that when we got on the bridge crossing the Schuylkill River that we were in for a wild ride. It delivered. My wife said that a plane aborted landing while we were on the bridge - I was too scared to look, LOL Flying back from FL was a bit fun yesterday afternoon. Wasnt too bad, but last hour was rather roller coaster ish. Glad we werent coming back last night. Looks like we have a chance at some slushy accums tomorrow. Looks like a blue mtn north special incoming. Hope y'all enjoy your slushy couple inches (for those that get it). Car topper is my bar down here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: If you're familiar - planes approach PHL from the north and are right beside I95. From the top of the bridge you have a clear shot at watching them land. We always enjoy the added "perk" especially at night time but I wasn't looking anywhere but in front of me last night. Most of the positive snow depth maps I'm seeing for tomorrow are really uninspiring - are the snow maps greatly exaggerating how much will actually accumulate? I guess we'll find out soon enough. LOL. You do not want to see it coming to swerve and miss the wheels? With temps between 32 and 35, I doubt there will be much plowing. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 Regardless of accums, this would be bad driving tomorrow Am just due to visibility. 2M temp 33 at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: .08" of rain yesterday with a low of 37, currently at 39. Looks like LNS recorded a 59mph gust with the frontal passage. As for tomorrow morning's snow chances down this way, I'm growing more pessimistic by the hour. Temperature issues abound. The lower levels of the column aren't all that cold and the surface temps are downright problematic. As I said yesterday, dew points at or above freezing don't exactly scream efficient accumulation haha. This is to say nothing of daytime solar effects and lighter intensity periods. Ratios will likely be abysmal. MAG went over most of this yesterday, but for us in the southern reaches of the LSV the issues are mounting. Elevation will be key and I ain't got it. Going with an O/U of 1" for my back yard. As always, I hope to be wrong. Good luck to all but keep expectations in check. Toodles. Yep. We finally get the storm track, but not enough cold for us LSV'rs. HRRR is showing this rather well. I'm on that limb with ya pal, so if it breaks, your not alone. if it were a couple degrees cooler going in...I'd be a tad more excited....but I'm not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Looking forward to the snowglobe tomorrow - expecting zero accumulation except maybe cold cars and metal roofs. Saturday looks nasty with strong strong winds snd rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 11 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Flying back from FL was a bit fun yesterday afternoon. Wasnt too bad, but last hour was rather roller coaster ish. Glad we werent coming back last night. Looks like we have a chance at some slushy accums tomorrow. Looks like a blue mtn north special incoming. Hope y'all enjoy your slushy couple inches (for those that get it). Car topper is my bar down here. Were you flying into PHL, BWI, or MDT? Regardless, glad you got home safely. 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: LOL. You do not want to see it coming to swerve and miss the wheels? With temps between 32 and 35, I doubt there will be much plowing. LOL. I literally was terrified of getting flipped over to worry about other things hitting me. I just checked PHL's observations for last evening - at 9:40pm (time we were on the bridge) the obs show wind gusts of 58mph. I imagine they were higher on top of the bridge? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 With acknowledgment of the warms surface temps, plug is NOT pulled yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: With acknowledgment of the warms surface temps, plug is NOT pulled yet. I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 Just now, paweather said: I like it! As usual, the 3K map is much more ridge dependent on accums over 2". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 The FV3 seems to be picking up on the temp issues down this way and the snow map responds accordingly, similar to the HRRR....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 43 minutes ago, canderson said: Looking forward to the snowglobe tomorrow - expecting zero accumulation except maybe cold cars and metal roofs. Saturday looks nasty with strong strong winds snd rain. Yeah I'm heading up to the state wrestling championships in Hershey on Saturday morning and was telling the guys when we go into the Giant Center there could be a warm rain falling and when we come out a few hours later there could be a cold wind-driven snow ha. Again, March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 36 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The FV3 seems to be picking up on the temp issues down this way and the snow map responds accordingly, similar to the HRRR....... It literally has the whole system farther north. How much for Albany? @TugHillMatt is watching closely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Were you flying into PHL, BWI, or MDT? Regardless, glad you got home safely. I literally was terrified of getting flipped over to worry about other things hitting me. I just checked PHL's observations for last evening - at 9:40pm (time we were on the bridge) the obs show wind gusts of 58mph. I imagine they were higher on top of the bridge? Flew into MDT. NBD but while I know that a plane "creaking" is a good thing as it needs to flex....but at altitude its still a bit unnerving. Last night would have sucked to be flying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 38 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The FV3 seems to be picking up on the temp issues down this way and the snow map responds accordingly, similar to the HRRR....... While I cant hit the like button, this looks like it should. 2m temps at 33-34 may be overcome for snow in the air, but getting more than a slushy inch is gonna be tough down here. This depicts that challenge for us LSV'rs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Lebanon County weather update: Snow tomorrow. 50's again by Friday followed by more snow Saturday? Good Tuesday morning. What a difference 24 hours makes! Last evening the cold front came across our region and as a result we will remain in the mid 40's today under mostly sunny skies. Clouds will increase as we head into the early evening. A perfectly timed system will then enter into our region overnight into early Wednesday morning with SNOW developing. Snow will fall though most of the daylight hours on Wednesday with several inches of snow likely on NON PAVED surfaces. We do want to stress, despite 70's yesterday, at the onset of the snow, roadways may become slushy and slick as this will start predawn. Once the Sun comes up, we expect snow to stick mainly on grass/decks/cars but also melt as its accumulating. Right now 1-3 inches looks like a fair call. Temps will hold in the mid to upper 30's. Snow will end Wednesday night. Thursday and Friday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with temps holding in the lower 50's before all eyes then turn to the Saturday time frame for another possible snow event. Yes, you read that right... more snow is possible Saturday...... We will have more on that as we draw closer in time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It literally has the whole system farther north. How much for Albany? @TugHillMatt is watching closely. Ha. Some of the mesos have us getting several inches of snow, while the HRRR has the precip. too light and raining here. I absolutely HATE living at a lower elevation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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