Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Burghblizz]

2 hours ago, canderson said:

Line out in western PA has tstorm warnings from south to north border. Impressive. 

We gusted over 60. Holy hell was it windy. At one point, the rain had all but stopped, but the wind was driving just the ponded water being kicked up by cars horizontally. Not sure I’ve ever seen that to that extent. 

[Blizzard of 93]

18z Euro has a LSV Wednesday jackpot!

Here is Kuchera & 10-1.

If the rates are there, this could produce!

[anotherman]

Holy shit. This front is insane.

[Voyager]

Well that was a big blow! Once again, my station only recorded a paltry 20.6 mph, but it had to at least be double that number. My neighbors house shook, and our front porch furniture was relocated. Rain was literally blowing sideways, and the power lines were whipping like crazy.

[paweather]

14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z Euro has a LSV Wednesday jackpot!

Here is Kuchera & 10-1.

If the rates are there, this could produce!

I’ll take it Blizz

[canderson]

Gusted to 42 right after the rain - the storm itself was a giant nothingburger though. 

[Bubbler86]

WWA issued tomorrow? 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Not much rain here but some serious gusts. It’s really roaring outside, front means business. Had some friends record gusts near 50mph on home stations. Very impressive. 

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Not much rain here but some serious gusts. It’s really roaring outside, front means business. Had some friends record gusts near 50mph on home stations. Very impressive. 

Not as bad in HBG but CTP called this perfectly in its discussion: 

 

Lots of wind damage reports across the area as the extreme llvl
winds are mixing down well. Expecting some of the line to
continue to make damage, esp the portion going thru the middle
Susq (toward Lewisburg/Danville). Core of fastest wind is >70KT
not even 2KFT aloft. Some weakening seen in the south, but
downslope and good srly inflow/convergence to the SE of Blue Mtn
may flare it back up again. Just got gust 54MPH on the roof -
well behind the line. Will chop the SVR watch very slowly.

[paweather]

7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Canadian mesos  have  done well the past 3 winter storms imby actually.  One thing to keep an eye on is the recent trends of bumping north with heaviest snows to extreme N.Md and SC PA vs Northern suburbs of DC on north  specifically the RGEM and a cluster of EPS members( places like Carlisle / Harrisburg/ Chambersburg probably approve. M/d crew still looks good atm .  

Let’s do it I get my WSW

[Blizzard of 93]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

WWA issued tomorrow? 

Warning or bust…Lol!

My guess for the CTP call is a late WWA for 1 to 3 inches of snow with isolated areas of 4 inches in elevated areas.

[MAG5035]

45 mph is the current measured peak gust back this way (around 730p). Temp is back to 38ºF

[Bubbler86]

One of more juicy systems on approach (for the season). 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Warning or bust…Lol!

My guess for the CTP call is a late WWA for 1 to 3 inches of snow with isolated areas of 4 inches in elevated areas.

Yea, Warning seems a stretch....with these temps we may need 1" of qpf to get to 5" 

[Blizzard of 93]

13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Canadian mesos  have  done well the past 3 winter storms imby actually.  One thing to keep an eye on is the recent trends of bumping north with heaviest snows to extreme N.Md and SC PA vs Northern suburbs of DC on north  specifically the RGEM and a cluster of EPS members( places like Carlisle / Harrisburg/ Chambersburg probably approve. M/d crew still looks good atm .  

Our area is due to jackpot!

Fill in that seasonal snow hole!

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Our area is due to jackpot!

Fill in that seasonal snow hole!

Come on Atomic.  Tapatalk this one home. 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, Warning seems a stretch....with these temps we may need 1" of qpf to get to 5" 

I like that the timing gets this underway before daybreak. It is important to put down a good base in the am as rates increase.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

I like that the timing gets this underway before daybreak. It is important to put down a good base in the am as rates increase.

The HRRR just rained on my snow parade.  How much for Williamsport? 

[MAG5035]

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

WWA issued tomorrow? 

I’m sure one would have to be at some point if the models hold with things. CTP doesn’t seem to be really acknowledging this as a strictly snow event anywhere, painting it as starting as snow/ice and going to a mix (rain/snow) during the day in their grids and referenced in their AFD. I mean i kinda agree that if we don’t have moderate or heavier rates that this could mix with rain in low spots given marginal surface/near surface temps but otherwise thermally this appears to me to be a strictly snow vs rain type event and pretty much all of our subforum has a sufficiently cold column for snow. 

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The HRRR just rained on my snow parade.  How much for Williamsport? 

Lol…the long range HRRR is like…

I need some help here…

[Chris78]

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, Warning seems a stretch....with these temps we may need 1" of qpf to get to 5" 

Exactly probably 5 - 6 to 1 ratios if the rates are heavy enough. 

White rain in lighter rates.

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol…the long range HRRR is like…

I need some help here…

Except that it showed all snow 6 hours ago.  Trends is the game.  I am surprised.  Surface temps up 3-5 degrees across the board in the LSV.  Will see what the rest do.  

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Exactly probably 5 - 6 to 1 ratios if the rates are heavy enough. 

White rain in lighter rates.

Yea, a WSW would be one of the bigger surprises in weather history if issued for the LSV and nearby. 

[Bubbler86]

35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

0z Hrrr is way north of other guidance fwiw . Rgem has been hinting at this so have to see how this trends tomorrow. 

Nam 12 is about 100-200 miles north.  Still snow in our area but 2m is little warmer.

[Blizzard of 93]

9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nam 12 is about 100-200 miles north.  Still snow in our area but 2m is little warmer.

It is now looks like every other model from 12z & 18z.

The 0z NAM moved north vs. it’s 18z run. However, the 18z run was well south of all of the other models.

Simply put…it now joined the consensus.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the 3k NAM at 0z.

[Itstrainingtime]

Probably experienced one of the more intense moments in 40+ years of driving leaving south Philly tonight - the winds on top of the Girard Point Bridge leaving the stadium complex was unreal. I was holding on to the steering wheel for dear life as the cross winds at the top of the span were pushing the car all over the place. No idea how high the winds were but I've driven through many a storm over the years and have never been pushed around like that. 

[Itstrainingtime]

MU update for Wednesday:

In the wake of the front, clearing skies will accompany temperatures that'll drop into the 30s by daybreak. A high pressure system settling over the Commonwealth on Tuesday will cause winds to become light later in the afternoon, but it will feel much chillier outside with highs only reaching the mid-40s to around 50. It's no secret that the "word is out" with regard to a late-season snow threat on Wednesday, with the weather slated to do a "total 180" in a matter of just 36 hours or less. A disturbance currently located over the Four Corners region will move rapidly northeastward into the central US on Tuesday and "stay the course" as it pushes into western PA by Wednesday. To the southeast of the disturbance, a storm system will develop across the Tennessee River Valley and move to a position off the Delmarva Peninsula by Wednesday. The air mass settling overhead Tuesday night should be "just cold enough" for a period of snow to occur across southern PA and far northern Maryland on Wednesday morning. Of course, it will only take a subtle shift north in the storm's track, or the chilly air mass to not push quite as far south, for snow to be mixed with or just end up being plain rain Wednesday morning. At this time, I actually do favor (with about 60/40 odds) a period of all snow Wednesday morning since the storm should track well to our south. I expect snow to overspread the Lower Susquehanna Valley from southwest-to-northeast around daybreak or in the pre-dawn hours Wednesday and continue throughout much of the morning. Despite the fact that it may snow for 4-6 hours, there are still plenty of reasons to be skeptical of anything more than a "nuisance" event. 

First, low temperatures Tuesday night will only fall into the low-to-mid 30s and remain above freezing while it's snowing Wednesday morning. Secondly, ground, roadway, and sub-surface temperatures are way above freezing following the record-breaking warmth and will stay that way through the rest of the week. Finally, the snow will be occuring primarily during the daylight hours and have to battle the strong March sun, whose angle is now equivalent to that of early October. Under these circumstances, it will have to snow at the rate of 1-2" per hour for snow to stick on paved surfaces. It may even be challenging for the snow to stick on non-paved surfaces, especially in the valleys and lower elevations. A few hundred feet of elevation can make a 1-2 degree difference in temperature, and this is often vital when talking about snowfall accumulations in March. So, I suspect that most locations will pick up a general coating to one inch of snow, with 1-3" more likely along the South Mountain Range and higher elevations in northern Lancaster County. Higher elevations to the north/west of Harrisburg also have a greater chance of receiving 1-3" of snow. If the snow arrives a few hours earlier than anticipated, then there's a higher probability of greater snowfall amounts since more would fall before sunrise. Keep in mind that these accumulations are with respect to grassy surfaces. I expect paved surfaces to generally remain wet, with any slushy spots being confined to untreated, secondary roadways in the highest elevations. The primary weather-related travel issue will be reduced visibility in any heavier bands of snow during the Wednesday morning commute. Be sure to reduce speed if you encounter areas of low visibility, and exercise caution on the wet roadways. As temperatures slowly climb into the upper 30s and precipitation lightens around midday, snow will mix with and change to rain before ending late Wednesday afternoon. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Global & short range models are locked in to CTP snow for tomorrow.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are the 6z NAMs & high res Canadian.