Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Bubbler86]

Got to 54 today and it was downright buggy.  Frustrating on the bug part. 

[pasnownut]

7 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Here is what I think of the accuracy of teleconnection forecasting as it pertains to snow storms (its better for air masses.)

 

Just getting caught up.  
 

Discussing tellies offers more to long range discussions than a 372 hr GFS op run. Everyone has their own opinions and tools to use and discuss. They’ve come to serve my approach pretty well.  Sure one or more can let me down but Its just a tool. Who’s right….dunno, but blizz is at least offering valid reasoning based on tools and methodologies he likes.   If you are wrong, we’ll at least you give it a legit go and we should discuss, and just not dismiss as we are mostly amateurs here. 
Ive not looked since last week but tellies sure were promising before I left. 

 

[Bubbler86]

21 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

 

I would put teleconnections forecast potential at 5-10% if one is trying to forecast snow or specific types of weather.  Patterns and air masses are surely better. No one thinks GFS LR maps are right but they do provide clues where a model thinks a pattern is going.  The MJO in particular is one I really get frustrated with because people always assume it will go sequentially from one phase to another but every year we have LR forecasters hanging their heads when it does not happen as forecasted.

 

And to add, there is no reason to defend Blizz.  I did not reply to any of his telly posts.   We all have our strengths.  All this discussion today started with heart burn over my "not good" post to the entire 6Z GFS run....from start to finish. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I would put teleconnections forecast potential at 5-10% if one is trying to forecast snow or specific types of weather.  No one thinks GFS LR maps are right but they do provide clues where a model thinks a pattern is going.  The MJO in particular is one I really get frustrated with because people always assume it will go sequentially from one phase to another but every year we have LR forecasters hanging their heads when it does not happen as forecasted.

 

And to add, there is no reason to defend Blizz.  I did not reply to any of his telly posts.   We all have our strengths.  All this discussion today started with heart burn over my "not good" the entire 6Z GFS run was....from start to finish. 

Every model run is going to show a different outcome in that range (300+ hrs). I don’t find much use in posting any model 10 days out.   It’s truly banter.   I look at it more as a rally the troops don’t give up or a pep rally in high school.   That’s what you get when having one main thread in our forum.   No way to sort out serious model disco from banter.   

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Every model run is going to show a different outcome in that range (300+ hrs). I don’t find much use in posting any model 10 days out.   It’s truly banter.   I look at it more as a rally the troops don’t give up or a pep rally in high school.   That’s what you get when having one main thread in our forum.   No way to sort out serious model disco from banter.   

I think discussing anything more than 7 days out is truly troop rally.  

[Cashtown_Coop]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think discussing anything more than 7 days out is truly troop rally.  

I agree with that but I’m not sure everyone thinks this way.   

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

I agree with that but I’m not sure everything thinks this way.   

Agreed.  In the end, I think we should all be able to post and respect others opinions. Most of the long timers here know how others post and what to expect. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think discussing anything more than 7 days out is truly troop rally.  

If posting something more than 7 days out is troop rally if it shows something that we like to see, then what should we call posting something that is 7 days out that shows something that we don’t like to see…?

I just want to make sure that this logic works both ways?

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Agreed.  In the end, I think we should all be able to post and respect others opinions. Most of the long timers here know how others post and what to expect. 

I think This is the post of the year. Period & exclamation point.!

[Cashtown_Coop]

10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

If posting something more than 7 days out is troop rally if it shows something that we like to see, then what should we call posting something that is 7 days out that shows something that we don’t like to see…?

I just want to make sure that this logic works both ways?

It does but 90 % of us here are chasing snow so posting model runs that show the opposite is trolling.   I’m strictly talking fantasy land stuff.     
 

you see this all the time in ma thread.  Not so much in here 

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

It does but 90 % of us here are chasing snow so posting model runs that show the opposite is trolling.   I’m strictly talking fantasy land stuff.     
 

you see this all the time in ma thread.  Not so much in here 

Thanks and good point. Most of us are here to chase snow. We only get 5 months out of the year when snow is truly possible. I chase first flake in the Fall to last the flake in the Spring.

If the short or medium range doesn’t show something good, then we search for the long range signals for a pattern change.

Right now, there are good signs of a pattern change starting next week and beyond.

This snow chasing hobby is supposed to be fun and enjoyable. I choose that path that shows how good things might be possible based on solid information that I back up most of the time with posted maps. 

I am here to have a good time and enjoy Winter weather. I hope more posters choose to search for the good possibilities. Our Winter time is short, we might as well try to enjoy it!

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I would put teleconnections forecast potential at 5-10% if one is trying to forecast snow or specific types of weather.  Patterns and air masses are surely better. No one thinks GFS LR maps are right but they do provide clues where a model thinks a pattern is going.  The MJO in particular is one I really get frustrated with because people always assume it will go sequentially from one phase to another but every year we have LR forecasters hanging their heads when it does not happen as forecasted.

 

And to add, there is no reason to defend Blizz.  I did not reply to any of his telly posts.   We all have our strengths.  All this discussion today started with heart burn over my "not good" post to the entire 6Z GFS run....from start to finish. 

  9 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Please read what @anotherman posted…

Maybe a few of you will consider not punting because of some random Op run while everything else is pointing to better days ahead next week.

I, nor many others, are not punting Blizz.  We are discussing an Op model run.  Doing anything else with it would be trying to interpret something that the model did not output.  It's equally as valid as talking about teleconnections that are often completely misinterpreted.   The GFS has regressed in its winter look over the last 24-48 hours. 

  1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think discussing anything more than 7 days out is truly troop rally.  

 

Couple takeaways...

Tellies were brought up a couple times by myself and others....and you've responded about your dislikes w/ them.  Fine, you don't like em.....but to put a 5-10 percent valuation on them is based on what data??  I/we see many mets use them.  You have somethin else in your weather bag of tricks....cool bud, we're all ears.....but to dismiss his, my or anyone else's assertion while using them..not sure I get that at all.  At last check....many way smarter than me are still throwin darts at the meteorological weatherboard.

You say you don't discuss op runs, but post often about them, and only a week or so ago we went back n forth over a 300+ hr map.  That's way more than 7 days, and agree 100%...its just a troop rally and often not even worthy of a banter thread....if we could only have one.  Quite frankly, tbh I'm as tired of seeing them posted as some are snow maps.  We've all seen plenty of flip flops in 6 hr intervals, and there's plenty of data to back that statement up.  

Unless I've got it all wrong, most of us that discuss weather regularly (cept the red taggers), have limited skillsets, and as you stated, bring different stuff to the disco table.  That's part of the fun and why many of us are here.  I'd ask everyone here to in the famous words of Letterkenny "throttle r back 20", and lets try not to dissuade weather conversation on a weather board.  I like many come here to discuss weather, and snow (or lack of) in particular, and parse through lots of off topic/unrelated banter in order to do so, with little to no moderation.  Asking you all to think about that last part a bit. 

This is NOT an attack, but an attempt to keep it real in here when were only a couple weeks into an already challenging and preciously short season for us snow hounds.  It's gonna be what its gonna be, but lets keep the convo flowing and not get snipy and clicky....like some other forums....we ARE better than that.  I'm not here to be the best/most frequent poster...not my jam.  Just want to chat up weather (and some fun) with good peeps.

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Back to the weather…

The 18z GFS has some front end snow to mix next Monday morning.

 

[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

It does but 90 % of us here are chasing snow so posting model runs that show the opposite is trolling.   I’m strictly talking fantasy land stuff.     
 

you see this all the time in ma thread.  Not so much in here 

Every couple years we go through challenging periods, and this seems to be one of em.  It's always easier to finds ways to fail than succeed in snowville and again, plenty of stats to support that.  I'm not here to put anyone down, not at all, and I hope we can keep the good mojo we worked hard to get rollin in here. I guess I stood up for blizz cause while he's a glass ALL FULL kinda dude in the winter, we need that as its hard enough to find snow.  If its not gonna snow, I just want someone to back it up w/ something more than a 300hr map.     

[Bubbler86]

35 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

  9 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Please read what @anotherman posted…

Maybe a few of you will consider not punting because of some random Op run while everything else is pointing to better days ahead next week.

I, nor many others, are not punting Blizz.  We are discussing an Op model run.  Doing anything else with it would be trying to interpret something that the model did not output.  It's equally as valid as talking about teleconnections that are often completely misinterpreted.   The GFS has regressed in its winter look over the last 24-48 hours. 

  1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think discussing anything more than 7 days out is truly troop rally.  

 

Couple takeaways...

Tellies were brought up a couple times by myself and others....and you've responded about your dislikes w/ them.  Fine, you don't like em.....but to put a 5-10 percent valuation on them is based on what data??  I/we see many mets use them.  You have somethin else in your weather bag of tricks....cool bud, we're all ears.....but to dismiss his, my or anyone else's assertion while using them..not sure I get that at all.  At last check....many way smarter than me are still throwin darts at the meteorological weatherboard.

You say you don't discuss op runs, but post often about them, and only a week or so ago we went back n forth over a 300+ hr map.  That's way more than 7 days, and agree 100%...its just a troop rally and often not even worthy of a banter thread....if we could only have one.  Quite frankly, tbh I'm as tired of seeing them posted as some are snow maps.  We've all seen plenty of flip flops in 6 hr intervals, and there's plenty of data to back that statement up.  

Unless I've got it all wrong, most of us that discuss weather regularly (cept the red taggers), have limited skillsets, and as you stated, bring different stuff to the disco table.  That's part of the fun and why many of us are here.  I'd ask everyone here to in the famous words of Letterkenny "throttle r back 20", and lets try not to dissuade weather conversation on a weather board.  I like many come here to discuss weather, and snow (or lack of) in particular, and parse through lots of off topic/unrelated banter in order to do so, with little to no moderation.  Asking you all to think about that last part a bit. 

This is NOT an attack, but an attempt to keep it real in here when were only a couple weeks into an already challenging and preciously short season for us snow hounds.  It's gonna be what its gonna be, but lets keep the convo flowing and not get snipy and clicky....like some other forums....we ARE better than that.  I'm not here to be the best/most frequent poster...not my jam.  Just want to chat up weather (and some fun) with good peeps.

 

 

Nut, I stopped reading when you said that I said I do not discuss Op runs.  It's basically my bread and butter. Lol I discuss any and all Op runs.  Past 7 days it's just a fun discussion and is as much to help keep the forum active than anything else.  But I do not just post the good stuff, I post my opinion of what the model depicted.  It's not a forecast, its a discussion.  I never once said anything negative to Blizz about his posts (that I can remember).    This is a weather board and is in place to discuss weather.  It's not a board where only positive snow friendly posts are allowed. 

[Bubbler86]

55 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

It does but 90 % of us here are chasing snow so posting model runs that show the opposite is trolling.   I’m strictly talking fantasy land stuff.     
 

you see this all the time in ma thread.  Not so much in here 

It would be trolling if one was posting negative news in follow up to someone posting positive news. But sort of silly to not post and discuss something because its not good news for snow.

[canderson]

I fly home tomorrow so it can now snow starting Tuesday. kthnx

[paweather]

58 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Back to the weather…

The 18z GFS has some front end snow to mix next Monday morning.

 

Love it!

[Blizzard of 93]

28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It would be trolling if one was posting negative news in follow up to someone posting positive news. But sort of silly to not post and discuss something because its not good news for snow.

I am on board with posting the good and the bad and long as everyone is looking at the full range of possibilities and backing it up with something concrete.

Whenever I post a map, it’s not that I am saying,“this is definitely happening”. I am merely showing what the model said on that particular run. 

Let’s get back on the hunt for the “snow train”!

[Bubbler86]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I am on board with posting the good and the bad and long as everyone is looking at the full range of possibilities and backing it up with something concrete.

Whenever I post a map, it’s not that I am saying,“this is definitely happening”. I am merely showing what the model said on that particular run. 

Let’s get back on the hunt for the “snow train”!

Personality, I never take anyone's posts as a forecast or definitely happening.  Not really sure how this blew out of proportion today but for this board, I will be keeping the non snow posts to a minimum so I do not upset the 90%. 

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I am on board with posting the good and the bad and long as everyone is looking at the full range of possibilities and backing it up with something concrete.

Whenever I post a map, it’s not that I am saying,“this is definitely happening”. I am merely showing what the model said on that particular run. 

Let’s get back on the hunt for the “snow train”!

My only issue worth noting today is that you clearly referred to people on here who were punting winter. You did the same last week. No one has punted a damn thing, and THAT is my objection. I can agree or respect just about anything else- but don't say things that aren't true. 

I'm ready to move forward.

[WmsptWx]

I got an email this afternoon from a sex bot. Absolutely nothing is safe from the Digital Whores of Babylon. Or should I say, New Delhi?

 

Fun times. 

[Blizzard of 93]

36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My only issue worth noting today is that you clearly referred to people on here who were punting winter. You did the same last week. No one has punted a damn thing, and THAT is my objection. I can agree or respect just about anything else- but don't say things that aren't true. 

I'm ready to move forward.

I’m ready to move forward as well.

There were previous punting references, but now I understand they were not actually punting the whole winter.

We have a good group on here. I am looking forward to sharing the events of this Winter as they develop in the coming weeks and months.

[Blizzard of 93]

43 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Personality, I never take anyone's posts as a forecast or definitely happening.  Not really sure how this blew out of proportion today but for this board, I will be keeping the non snow posts to a minimum so I do not upset the 90%. 

I’m not really sure either what happened at this point.

I apologize to you and everyone today if I derailed the thread. Hopefully some good came out of the discussions today from everyone.

I enjoy your posts and look forward to reading your thoughts each day. We need to look at the whole pattern picture, whether it’s good or bad for snow chances. Please continue to post whatever needs to be discussed so we can look at every possibility.

Also, thank you to your football team for defeating Washington today. It helped the Eagles playoff chances!

[pasnownut]

5-10% likelyhood of happening....but better than a 384hr GFS maps that might have started this mess.

 

 

I'd eyeball the AO as a neutral signal....not a strong one, but enough lines headed south to give me hope for better times.  Overall takeaway is a hell of a lot better than it was a week ago...and yes, the op runs are starting to show it.  18z beyond thurs (and poss another warm saturday as we are rather close to the boundary and looping back it seems to be ticking north).  Beyond that we look to be getting a lot more Christmas like temp wise....

MJO showing more movement towards better phase 7 and the money if we can get to 8 and 1...but lets not get ahead of ourselves.  For those that dont follow the MJO, you want this lines further away from the center for a more pronounced response in said phase.  Little circle in middle is referred to as the "circle of death", or weak signal and correlating response thereof.  IF we can get the movement as depcicted, you'd likely see a sustained chance for cold to hold in the conus/east.  

PNA is also a neutral look, but not the kiss of death, even though we know that the Pac influence is often a bigger player than the others noted above.  If we can get phase 7/8 w/ NAO, that can be a workable deal round here.  

 

[TimB]

Since this is a glorified sports thread, I’ll bite. You have high hopes for the Steelers, or Cowboys, or Eagles, or whoever when the season starts. But then they lose the opener. You think “oh well, plenty of time to turn it around.” Then Week 2 rolls around and they lose again. Oh shit, this doesn’t look good. Hopefully some major adjustments happen in Week 3. But Week 3 rolls around and they’re down 17-7 at the half. That’s about where things stand right now wx wise. Hopefully the halftime adjustments are good.

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Since this is a glorified sports thread, I’ll bite. You have high hopes for the Steelers, or Cowboys, or Eagles, or whoever when the season starts. But then they lose the opener. You think “oh well, plenty of time to turn it around.” Then Week 2 rolls around and they lose again. Oh shit, this doesn’t look good. Hopefully some major adjustments happen in Week 3. But Week 3 rolls around and they’re down 17-7 at the half. That’s about where things stand right now wx wise. Hopefully the halftime adjustments are good.

We are only in the first half of the first quarter. The game is just getting started!

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m not really sure either what happened at this point.

I apologize to you and everyone today if I derailed the thread. Hopefully some good came out of the discussions today from everyone.

I enjoy your posts and look forward to reading your thoughts each day. We need to look at the whole pattern picture, whether it’s good or bad for snow chances. Please continue to post whatever needs to be discussed so we can look at every possibility.

Also, thank you to your football team for defeating Washington today. It helped the Eagles playoff chances!

The Cowboys got lucky at the end but will take it.  Dak is looking a bit questionable right now. 

On this AM...

After reading nut's last post, which was a good run down on the tellies, I see more reference to that 2M map I posted.  As I said then, I am looking for a signal of sustained cold so if we get snow, it stays with us.  I skipped the rest of the gfs when posting it as I cannot fathom we are going into a good pattern until we see better pattern signals in the LR.  It was not just the gfs, if was the gefs and cmc ensembles.  Key for me though is that I did not post it in response to anyone else's post...it was more a revelation on why no one else was posting model runs.   So my apologies for offending anyone.  Not here to ruin fun so I will steer clear of LR stuff that may annoy. 

[WmsptWx]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

We are only in the first half of the first quarter. The game is just getting started!

The Raiders stomped on the Chiefs logo pregame and it was 28-0 about five minutes in. 

 

Even when the game is just getting started, sometimes it's already over. 

 

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The Cowboys got lucky at the end but will take it.  Dak is looking a bit questionable right now. 

On this AM...

After reading nut's last post, which was a good run down on the tellies, I see more reference to that 2M map I posted.  As I said then, I am looking for a signal of sustained cold so if we get snow, it stays with us.  I skipped the rest of the gfs when posting it as I cannot fathom we are going into a good pattern until we see better pattern signals in the LR.  It was not just the gfs, if was the gefs and cmc ensembles.  Key for me though is that I did not post it in response to anyone else's post...it was more a revelation on why no one else was posting model runs.   So my apologies for offending anyone.  Not here to ruin fun so I will steer clear of LR stuff that may annoy. 

Back end of the ensembles did improve some at 12z, for those looking for better news.