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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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8 hours ago, canderson said:

Tomorrow and Friday will be chilly but it’ll not be that cold 1 low around freezing. Saturday I think we get to 50/51. I don’t buy next week’s cold shot either. Hope I’m wrong. 

When I was vilified for punting, almost all guidance showed it and it pretty much did happen,   but in this case guidance shows several cold shots coming.  Regardless I am not vilifying you vs. discussing counterpoints.  Just straight model discussion, I see little signs of spring.   1-2 days of high temps when a system passes us to the west.   The rest mostly near normal or below. 

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Something's got to give - and someone is going to end up really happy or very disappointed. Discussion below was posted yesterday afternoon at 4pm, so it's newer info than the Spring Outlook posted earlier. But Elliott is doubling down on his March call and his concern for April snow. Read about it here: https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

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19 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I put the shovels away at my house to trigger a snowstorm.

I never got my shovel out. I had one snow with a few inches in the driveway and I let it melt on it's own. I think the only other winter that I never shoveled was 1997-98. (my largest snow that season was 1.5" that didn't accumulate on paved surfaces. 

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3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The end of the 10 day 0z Euro run that I just posted looks like a sustained colder pattern setting in. 
We should have some chances between the 10th & 20th.

 

Yeah it looks like things are close enough to not write them off, but I'm not sure its sustained...more of a window of opp IMO.  I see several cutters with post frontal cold...largely a repeat of what we've been seeing.  Per ensemble guidance, several day period around green beer day might have some legs, as the cold dome favors eastern Canada, and can be tapped into, but it doesnt appear like troughing is deep enough in the east to get it done IMO.  Most of us that have started to check out just know that sun angles n stuff start to show up in whatever we can eek out anyways, and that said, March needs to be a go big or go home kinda deal to make it last a little (well for me anyway). 

Tellies havent really changed much (not very favorable for NAO/AO for us easters with a neutral look at best), and verbatim, after that mid month window, they suggest a slam the door shut kinda look for us snow hounds as the AO heads for the true Arctic and warm boundary soars north.  Spring will be springin for sure, and even if we see normalish, we all know its really tough after mid month, and if the tellies hold...were done/cooked after that.

If trainers boy is right about April, it really doesn't matter to me, as the difference between 45 n rain vs 55 n rain....for winter lovers...who cares.  While we may sneak 1 or 2 shots in, it is what it is...and I'll sure take em, but I'm not seeing enough to get remotely excited about. 

Keep searchin pal...you deserve a good one in your name, and I'll be happy to cheer you onto victory.  I'll be glad to pull out shovels/blower...heck even sleds for one more go, but the realist in me is just writing this year off as damaged goods. 

Maybe next year....

 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Something's got to give - and someone is going to end up really happy or very disappointed. Discussion below was posted yesterday afternoon at 4pm, so it's newer info than the Spring Outlook posted earlier. But Elliott is doubling down on his March call and his concern for April snow. Read about it here: https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

An interesting read. Sounds like he isn’t buying the operational models and ensembles showing a deep, fairly persistent trough with storm chances in the mid/longer term.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d love for the more wintry pattern to come to fruition, but I could just as easily see it being a few coldish days with flurries and highs a few degrees either side of 40.

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