CarlislePaWx Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: 24 hours later, CTP isn't looking so bad for waiting to hoist advisories. haha...you read my mind. I think at times we all take turns hating on CTP for the timeliness of their advisories/watches. I know they have to follow certain guidelines dictated by the regional headquarters for their CWA. If I remember correctly, in order for them to issue a watch in any particular county they have to have >70% certainty that at least 50% of the county warned will reach warning criteria. Obviously it is much less strict with advisories. I also know that if they believe a watch will be necessary, they can't issue it until the start time is closer than 36 hours away. For this particular event, like MAG has said many times before, even if just a tiny bit of ice could affect roads and/or sidewalks, an advisory seems warranted to at least alert for the potential for the ice. That isn't crying wolf, and I don't think the public would mind if the advisory was lifted closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 56 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 33/28 here now - I expect zero icing on roads in this area. Perhaps some glazing on trees and power lines for a few hours later tonight. I think you need to get up in the MSV until there's issues of significance. Not unexpected. I wouldn’t write off issues completely. Yea surface temps got a tad freezing today, they were supposed to. They should fall below freezing when precip arrives. Here’s what the 23z HRRR just initialized 925mb (3000 ft) temps at. They’re about 1 degree or so warmer at precip arrival around 4-5z. But yea -6 to -5ºC is about 21-23ºF. Pretty decent depth and strength of the low level cold, so that depth suggests to me sleet’s definitely in the equation the first couple hours all the way to the mason-dixon despite what p-type maps show. Here’s THV’s sounding generated from the HRRR at 05z (approximate precip arrival). The warm nose is elevated but easily notable, but the column is below freezing from 900mb (approx 4k feet) on down to the surface. Otherwise I think CTP’s forecast/headlines are fine, though I probably would’ve considered a few more central/south like Centre, Huntingdon, Fulton, Franklin, for maybe a bit more freezing rain and less sleet. If 925-850 air advects in warmer/faster that could mean the I-80 counties also get 0.25”+ ice in exchange for a bit less sleet/snow. That’s definitely a distinct possibility as well. I do think as noted by a few in here that QPF might be a thing in the LSV as noted on the newer NAM runs. If that’s the case, that’s probably a bigger limiting factor in higher ice totals than temps IMO. This isn’t Feb 3-4, the CAD is already locked in for most of the night with the precip attacking it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 I forgot to give my conditions... Currently 31.6 degrees and hasn't budged for more than an hour. Dew point is 22 degrees and the wet bulb has decreased slightly from earlier to 28.4. That at least helps increase the chances that temps will cool off a bit more once good precip is underway. Latest radar shows serious juice about to enter southwest PA. Definitely will be interesting to see how much sleet we all might get and how quickly it changes to zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I wouldn’t write off issues completely. Yea surface temps got a tad freezing today, they were supposed to. They should fall below freezing when precip arrives. Here’s what the 23z HRRR just initialized 925mb (3000 ft) temps at. They’re about 1 degree or so warmer at precip arrival around 4-5z. But yea -6 to -5ºC is about 21-23ºF. Pretty decent depth and strength of the low level cold, so that depth suggests to me sleet’s definitely in the equation the first couple hours all the way to the mason-dixon despite what p-type maps show. Here’s THV’s sounding generated from the HRRR at 05z (approximate precip arrival). The warm nose is elevated but easily notable, but the column is below freezing from 900mb (approx 4k feet) on down to the surface. Otherwise I think CTP’s forecast/headlines are fine, though I probably would’ve considered a few more central/south like Centre, Huntingdon, Fulton, Franklin, for maybe a bit more freezing rain and less sleet. If 925-850 air advects in warmer/faster that could mean the I-80 counties also get 0.25”+ ice in exchange for a bit less sleet/snow. That’s definitely a distinct possibility as well. I do think as noted by a few in here that QPF might be a thing in the LSV as noted on the newer NAM runs. If that’s the case, that’s probably a bigger limiting factor in higher ice totals than temps IMO. This isn’t Feb 3-4, the CAD is already locked in for most of the night with the precip attacking it. Thanks, great writeup/discussion. I have dropped below freezing here (31.8) so perhaps there will be a little more than what I bargained for. Speaking of which, do you know where I can find road temp data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I forgot to give my conditions... Currently 31.6 degrees and hasn't budged for more than an hour. Dew point is 22 degrees and the wet bulb has decreased slightly from earlier to 28.4. That at least helps increase the chances that temps will cool off a bit more once good precip is underway. Latest radar shows serious juice about to enter southwest PA. Definitely will be interesting to see how much sleet we all might get and how quickly it changes to zr. I like seeing the heavy returns in the radar to our southwest. Hopefully we get a good dose of sleet before the freezing rain takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I wouldn’t write off issues completely. Yea surface temps got a tad freezing today, they were supposed to. They should fall below freezing when precip arrives. Here’s what the 23z HRRR just initialized 925mb (3000 ft) temps at. They’re about 1 degree or so warmer at precip arrival around 4-5z. But yea -6 to -5ºC is about 21-23ºF. Pretty decent depth and strength of the low level cold, so that depth suggests to me sleet’s definitely in the equation the first couple hours all the way to the mason-dixon despite what p-type maps show. Here’s THV’s sounding generated from the HRRR at 05z (approximate precip arrival). The warm nose is elevated but easily notable, but the column is below freezing from 900mb (approx 4k feet) on down to the surface. Otherwise I think CTP’s forecast/headlines are fine, though I probably would’ve considered a few more central/south like Centre, Huntingdon, Fulton, Franklin, for maybe a bit more freezing rain and less sleet. If 925-850 air advects in warmer/faster that could mean the I-80 counties also get 0.25”+ ice in exchange for a bit less sleet/snow. That’s definitely a distinct possibility as well. I do think as noted by a few in here that QPF might be a thing in the LSV as noted on the newer NAM runs. If that’s the case, that’s probably a bigger limiting factor in higher ice totals than temps IMO. This isn’t Feb 3-4, the CAD is already locked in for most of the night with the precip attacking it. Thanks for the detailed analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Currently 28ºF/21ºF. It’s looking like this event will be rolling by about 10pm here.. gonna be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 This feels like the last so called ice storm that didn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 The 0z HRRR increased sleet & freezing rain amounts in the Harrisburg & Lancaster area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Here are upper air & surface temps at the height of the storm at 2 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Radar does look very good to our west - it's going to come down to temperatures and how far we can fall below freezing at onset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Radar does look very good to our west - it's going to come down to temperatures and how far we can fall below freezing at onset. With the precip set to arrive like a heavy wall, do you think this could help to cool the column a bit to provide more sleet for the first half of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 I see that the same collapse that has happened to you all to my south has happened up here in Williamsport. The very stubborn Wunderground -- which stuck with 5-8 until past noon and then went down to 1-3 like the NWS advisory by late afternoon -- now is calling for a whopping inch. The NWS is still sticking to 1-3 snow and sleet, .1-.2" ice in its advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: With the precip set to arrive like a heavy wall, do you think this could help to cool the column a bit to provide more sleet for the first half of the storm? I honestly don't know. Temps will probably drop at least a degree or two initially I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 25, 2022 Author Share Posted February 25, 2022 31/29 here. Wundermap shows the Catoctins are really primed for a good glazin if its rain and not sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 The 0z 3k NAM ramped up the freezing rain amounts again for the LSV 0z top vs. 18z bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: 31/29 here. Wundermap shows the Catoctins are really primed for a good glazin if its rain and not sleet. Amazing microclimate they have down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 25, 2022 Author Share Posted February 25, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Amazing microclimate they have down there. And 1500 to 2000' feet elevation :-). They are saturated at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 25, 2022 Author Share Posted February 25, 2022 Moderate rain and 32 here now. Some sleet on the patio so there was sleet at the very start. Some icing on elevated surfaces. I can hear the rain from inside so its actually coming down pretty good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 2 hours ago, Ruin said: Thinking this may bust when you see a primary driving into NW Pa, I dont care what the models show, we torch ..... Yes, HP is in a nice spot, but without transfer sooner or notably south of MD line, its just not gonna work for most of us. I saw very little CAD showing on the models, and yes temps are marginally ok for onset, but no pronounced wedge showed, and its just really hard to get long duration frozen w/ SLP track like that, unless antecedent cold is stout. We just dont have that here. Yes, we are gonna ice for a few hours, but surface is marginal at best, so without sleet, I'd think zr will even be less than modeled until you get to MSV and points NW. if one looks at the 0z NAM, you can see much less snow even for northern tier counties. Not trying to piss in anyone's cheerios but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 25, 2022 Author Share Posted February 25, 2022 Latest HRRR. I think this does end up being quite newsworthy in at least the outlined area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Precip arrived just before 10. As expected, full blown pingers so far… with a tad of ZR in there enough to have a glaze on most non-treated surfaces. Already getting on the roads despite the road crews being on the scene. 27.5ºF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Latest HRRR. I think this does end up being quite newsworthy in at least the outlined area. Ughhh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 25, 2022 Author Share Posted February 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, 2001kx said: Ughhh.. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Rain here - no sleet at all at least at the onset. Edit: it's raining hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Here it comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Sleet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 An hour into sleet bomb 2022. Hey it can keep doing this over having a half inch of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Rain here - no sleet at all at least at the onset. Edit: it's raining hard. You’ll have to see what the p-types are when that heavier stuff on your doorstep coming at you from the southern tier gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now