GrandmasterB Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I know I'll regret saying this...BUT shouldn't we be putting more stock in the NAM at this range and with this set-up? The old rule used to be globals were too aggressive (warm) with surface temps when the high was parked in this spot. The high isn't racing east this time. I know we underperformed ice lately, but this is a different set-up than the last few. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 CTP going with more sleet than freezing rain for Tamaqua per the new point forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 @Blizzard of 93 We need some good March news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Voyager said: CTP going with more sleet than freezing rain for Tamaqua per the new point forecast. They've listed every possible weather for me lol Thursday Night Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 1am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 1am and 4am, then rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet after 4am. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 30. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of around a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Friday Rain and sleet before 11am, then a chance of rain between 11am and 3pm. High near 42. Southeast wind 6 to 14 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Voyager said: We hardly ever reach warning criteria anyway... That's actually a pretty profound and accurate statement. Many times in the past during similar situations the verification often failed to meet the criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 This will be a fun sleet storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Topped out at 67 here, now down to 52. Amazing gradient today with a 45 degree difference between parts of NW PA and the Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Run after run some big numbers even cut this in half still trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3pm: 69 4pm: 67 5pm: 50 6pm: 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 27 minutes ago, paweather5 said: Run after run some big numbers even cut this in half still trouble. I'm not sure if I want sleet or ice. I just know I want Friday off...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 3pm: 69 4pm: 67 5pm: 50 6pm: 44 A very impressive frontal boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 40 minutes ago, paweather5 said: Run after run some big numbers even cut this in half still trouble. My takeaway here is that the freezing rain line is way south into MD. Even if it's wrong by 50-70 miles, we're still in the crosshairs. I'm usually pretty down on these threats but I think this one could be impactful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: My takeaway here is that the freezing rain line is way south into MD. Even if it's wrong by 50-70 miles, we're still in the crosshairs. I'm usually pretty down on these threats but I think this one could be impactful. I agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: Lol gonna be regionwide lackluster WWAs. Always the route taken. Esp after the fail of the last ice storm a few weekends back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, paweather5 said: Run after run some big numbers even cut this in half still trouble. Check out the GFS. Definitely believe it when I see it. Maps like this have fallen to the wayside several time's this years. Maybe not this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: 3pm: 69 4pm: 67 5pm: 50 6pm: 44 7pm: 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Check out the GFS. Definitely believe it when I see it. Maps like this have fallen to the wayside several time's this years. Maybe not this time. Dewpoint is 27-28 when precip starts on the GFS. Upper 20's is different than 31/32 in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 CTP up to their usual stuff… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 I'm surrounded by watches. CTP late to the party, as usual... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: CTP up to their usual stuff… @MAG5035 Mt. Holly & Binghamton have Watches, but I guess if you cross the border from Berks to Lebanon or from Luzerne to Schuylkill county, no Watch type weather to worry about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: CTP up to their usual stuff… Yep exactly what I said early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Winter weather is far far far far far far from over! March will be our snow month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 My parents in Texas experienced a 57 degree temp swing in 24 hours. 89 at 2 pm yesterday, was 31 at 2 pm today. Currently it’s sleeting and they have iced surfaces everywhere. Go do a Google traffic look at Dallas …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, canderson said: My parents in Texas experienced a 57 degree temp swing in 24 hours. 89 at 2 pm yesterday, was 31 at 2 pm today. Currently it’s sleeting and they have iced surfaces everywhere. Go do a Google traffic look at Dallas …. Saw on TV it is bad in Dallas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, canderson said: My parents in Texas experienced a 57 degree temp swing in 24 hours. 89 at 2 pm yesterday, was 31 at 2 pm today. Currently it’s sleeting and they have iced surfaces everywhere. Go do a Google traffic look at Dallas …. Lol times a million……. But I didn’t think ice could accumulate on ground that was recently warm and only at temps of 31 degrees….. There might be a chance this happens on PA roads tomorrow night & Friday am…. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 where's the 18Z Euro update at? Rumors of a souther/colder tick. paweather, whadya got?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Nevermind! Saw this in the Philly thread. Damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, paweather said: Saw on TV it is bad in Dallas It’s not the only bad thing in Dallas….. (sorry, you set that one up! Lol!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @MAG5035 Mt. Holly & Binghamton have Watches, but I guess if you cross the border from Berks to Lebanon or from Luzerne to Schuylkill county, no Watch type weather to worry about! Yea I don’t know it’s whatever I guess…like I mentioned this morning I don’t know why you don’t put a blanket watch out for at least a big chunk of the CWA and go warning/advisory as needed when you see where the sig ice swath is looking to set up in the near term. It better warns the public IMO. Most non-weenies aren’t going to read the HWO haha. It was even mentioned in the discussion this morning about issuing watches/warnings even if it’s just short of criteria due to the impact on roads. I mean the model support for warning criteria as well as WPC probs has been there for at least issuing a watch for the potential over a good bit more of the area than they have. At any rate we’re less than 24hrs from this starting and It’s likely to at least be a higher impact advisory event for most. 1-2”+ of sleet followed by 0.1-0.2” of ice isn’t gonna be much better on the roads than up to an inch of sleet and 0.2-0.4”+ of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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