Ruin Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 love how I saw on fri abc was saying very mild week mon-fri next week no problems till a little rain fri. then out of no where changed this to now 50s on wed then low 40s thursday into 30s fri. when I saw some one streaming weather on Sat talking about a major snow storm im like wtf are they talking about till I saw the forecast when i checked the next day sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @MAG5035 What are your current thoughts for the Thursday/Friday event in CTP? Well I’m not super thrilled about it, but mainly because I am so tired of seeing the non-fringing systems being mixing events this winter. I do think this thing presents a better ice threat than the Feb 3-4 debacle. You have the system pressing an established high pressure to the north (which is stronger/better placed) instead of trying to draw the cold air in mid-late storm. There’s enough time between the Tuesday rainer and the Thur/Fri system to set the edge and establish good CAD. Also for the sun angle queens (I’m one of them in this case) the system comes in mainly overnight Thursday. That point is really only relevant for any ZR accrual potential. So overall I think the potential for the whole area to see at least see an advisory level mess is quite high. And as it looks currently, yea there’s probably a period of plain rain for the LSV (esp below the turnpike) somewhere late in the system. I don’t think plain rain is going to dominate this time though. The big question right now is dominant mix type (sleet vs freezing rain) and if we can see more frozen (snow/sleet). Models didn’t trend that way today and aren’t looking like they are with the 0z suite so far. Ensembles have mainly supported more mix, even the GEFS when the op had a more frozen solution. I Mentioned last night we need to get the surface low pretty well under PA. Given the strength of the high progged, it’s certainly doable, not to mentioned models have been showing some attempts at a coastal secondary low. Regardless, sneaking into PA isn’t going to cut it, so this needs to find a way to trend south for more significant snow/sleet in C-PA. A lot of guidance has kind of separated out an initial wave of precip prior to the main wave as well. It’s probably with that where snow can be scored unless we get said notable trends south the next couple days. I’m usually pretty bullish on the deeper CAD winning these scenarios, especially back in this area.. but the tendency this winter has seemed to be the opposite. We’ll see what happens. I want to get into mesoscale range to see what those models do with this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: But many were saying that the GFS was the new king… Not sure what you're saying? I simply said that the GFS was trending towards the Euro. To me, that's good. Snow I'll take. Ice, not so much. GFS did very well (better then most other models including the Euro) with a couple of storms earlier this winter. That's another fact. I probably said as much at the time. I wasn't being negative in any way. I simply stated what I saw. And I was happy to see it. The storm on Thursday/Friday (to me) was always an extremely low probability storm for snow for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Here are CTP’s thoughts this morning. The main focus for late week remains on a much more significant area of low pressure lifting north from the Gulf Coast. The bulk of latest guidance tracks the primary low into western Pa with secondary coastal development and a blocking high over northern New England. This scenario favors a wintry mix for much of central Pa late Thursday into early Friday. Plenty of GOMEX moisture accompanying this system should result in a fairly significant precipitation event, with latest ensemble plumes indicating 0.5 to 1 inch of precip most likely. Latest model thermal profiles currently support snow to mixed precip over the north and mixed precip to rain in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 8 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Joel embid unstoppable from 3. You are correct. Embiid had a great game. He was outgunned by the best shooter that ever played in the NBA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Not sure what you're saying? I simply said that the GFS was trending towards the Euro. To me, that's good. Snow I'll take. Ice, not so much. GFS did very well (better then most other models including the Euro) with a couple of storms earlier this winter. That's another fact. I probably said as much at the time. I wasn't being negative in any way. I simply stated what I saw. And I was happy to see it. The storm on Thursday/Friday (to me) was always an extremely low probability storm for snow for the LSV. I was just making a joke. There was a lot of GFS worship & Euro trashing recently-not by you but by others on here and other regional threads on here. My joking comment was in reference to the Euro seeming to have this event nailed down well before the GFS. Every comment & response is not picking an argument! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Today is going to be incredible - hoping to get out of the office early today and hit the trail this afternoon. 60, here we come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 46 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Today is going to be incredible - hoping to get out of the office early today and hit the trail this afternoon. 60, here we come! Speaking of which, don’t think you answered my post from yesterday afternoon (see below). Thought maybe you just missed it. Answer me now damnit! “Did you happen to see a guy in all penn state gear walking a labradoodle and an eight-month pregnant wife pushing a stroller with a baby in it? We were on the part by Chickies Rock from about 2-3pm. Looks like I’m topping out at 39 here.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Today is going to be incredible - hoping to get out of the office early today and hit the trail this afternoon. 60, here we come! Wednesday looks like a day to take off and recharge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 44 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Speaking of which, don’t think you answered my post from yesterday afternoon (see below). Thought maybe you just missed it. Answer me now damnit! “Did you happen to see a guy in all penn state gear walking a labradoodle and an eight-month pregnant wife pushing a stroller with a baby in it? We were on the part by Chickies Rock from about 2-3pm. Looks like I’m topping out at 39 here.” His unspoken answer: "Why, yes I did. I actually stalked your family for the entire hour...which is why I won't answer..." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 25 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: His unspoken answer: "Why, yes I did. I actually stalked your family for the entire hour...which is why I won't answer..." Or, "Why, yes I did. I actually quickly ushered my family back into our car for safety ...which is why I won't answer..." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Current projections not good for the LSV: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Speaking of which, don’t think you answered my post from yesterday afternoon (see below). Thought maybe you just missed it. Answer me now damnit! “Did you happen to see a guy in all penn state gear walking a labradoodle and an eight-month pregnant wife pushing a stroller with a baby in it? We were on the part by Chickies Rock from about 2-3pm. Looks like I’m topping out at 39 here.” 52 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: His unspoken answer: "Why, yes I did. I actually stalked your family for the entire hour...which is why I won't answer..." 25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Or, "Why, yes I did. I actually quickly ushered my family back into our car for safety ...which is why I won't answer..." In all honesty- we ran for the car on approach. No, really, we walked the Marietta portion yesterday and were not down at Chickies. But at least we now know to avoid that area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 40 minutes ago, paweather said: Current projections not good for the LSV: Nam has the paweather 540 line in Northern PA heading into Thursday evening....much farther North than some of the good GFS runs. (Unfortunately) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam has the paweather 540 line in Northern PA heading into Thursday evening....much farther North than some of the good GFS runs. (Unfortunately) Yep doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam has the paweather 540 line in Northern PA heading into Thursday evening....much farther North than some of the good GFS runs. (Unfortunately) So it's looking like it's going to be a shit show at best then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: In all honesty- we ran for the car on approach. No, really, we walked the Marietta portion yesterday and were not down at Chickies. But at least we now know to avoid that area. Bahahhaha touche my friend, touche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Voyager said: So it's looking like it's going to be a shit show at best then? To me it does not look particularly interesting for my neck of the woods right now. Only Monday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: To me it does not look particularly interesting for my neck of the woods right now. Only Monday though. Let's hope for a change today with the MR models. If not, I think we are mostly rain both events. First one is a for sure rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 I'm not a deeply religious man, but i may pray later, that we just move into spring and out of this crap winter. I will also ask that we don't have snow for 4th of July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I'm not a deeply religious man, but i may pray later, that we just move into spring and out of this crap winter. I will also ask that we don't have snow for 4th of July. what about Memorial Day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 Snowing Thursday afternoon in Rou on the 12Z GFS. Book it! Snow TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 60 and full sun today, rain Tuesday, sun and newer 63 Wednesday, cloudy and 38 Thursday before precip arrives, and Friday will be in the mid 40s. I’ve seen this rodeo - a solid nonevent (accumulation wise) for anyone in the LSV. We never ever win with this setup. But maybe we’ll get a nice snowglobe look! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, canderson said: 60 and full sun today, rain Tuesday, sun and newer 63 Wednesday, cloudy and 38 Thursday before precip arrives, and Friday will be in the mid 40s. I’ve seen this rodeo - a solid nonevent (accumulation wise) for anyone in the LSV. We never ever win with this setup. But maybe we’ll get a nice snowglobe look! I know one thing you won't be denied: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, canderson said: 60 and full sun today, rain Tuesday, sun and newer 63 Wednesday, cloudy and 38 Thursday before precip arrives, and Friday will be in the mid 40s. I’ve seen this rodeo - a solid nonevent (accumulation wise) for anyone in the LSV. We never ever win with this setup. But maybe we’ll get a nice snowglobe look! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 All together, GFS still advertising a decent period of sleet and FRZ for the LSV. Overnight though. Above freeing by Friday AM. The damn cold next weekend. Would be MDT's low for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 22 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I'm not a deeply religious man, but i may pray later, that we just move into spring and out of this crap winter. I will also ask that we don't have snow for 4th of July. I'm with you Jon - if it snows, great. But it's past my favorite time for it to snow, so I'm just as happy at this point for a string of days just like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 Light snow breaks out Sunday AM in the LSV on the GFS. Main shield is going to slide south of us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 Actually far S/E LSV does get into the heavier stuff as it slides by! Kuch for late weekend event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Not bad I'll take the green: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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