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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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It is my great pleasure to give the Williamsport report for 6:35. It is still 53 at the airport in Montoursville (high 54). Tonight will be 40 when our average daytime high is 38; tomorrow will be much closer to average with 43/19.  I enjoyed being outside so much. A bit of spring weather in February can be wonderful and it was today.

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14 minutes ago, canderson said:

No mud down here. Dry and starting to green up a bit. The river should be free of ice by midweek too - it’s half or more clear now. 

I found it weird that the West Branch Susky nor the Juniata even came close to freezing over this winter despite it being so cold in January into early February. I would have bet my life's savings that they would freeze. 

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1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

I found it weird that the West Branch Susky nor the Juniata even came close to freezing over this winter despite it being so cold in January into early February. I would have bet my life's savings that they would freeze. 

That’s very surprising. Wonder why? The river here was iced over 4 or solid weeks which is quite a while.  

It’s broken up now and it’ll be all gone next week but it was orrry while it lasted. 

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55 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Snow Sunday....teens Monday AM.  What is all this garden talk?  Oh, a beer garden? 

 

It’s not going to snow Sunday - well some southern spots might get mood flurries I guess. Then we spike up again to near 60 by late week. Big rains Thursday to wash away the remaining salt - will be nice. 

Maybe we luck out with a March surprise? I am doubtful but March is unpredictable and has delivered big time in the past. 

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5 hours ago, canderson said:

It’s not going to snow Sunday - well some southern spots might get mood flurries I guess. Then we spike up again to near 60 by late week. Big rains Thursday to wash away the remaining salt - will be nice. 

Maybe we luck out with a March surprise? I am doubtful but March is unpredictable and has delivered big time in the past. 

I think many in the lsv see the ground covered again.  But did see the warm up coming next week.  GL runner.  Maybe highs below freezing Sun and Mon though.

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6 hours ago, canderson said:

It’s not going to snow Sunday - well some southern spots might get mood flurries I guess. Then we spike up again to near 60 by late week. Big rains Thursday to wash away the remaining salt - will be nice. 

Maybe we luck out with a March surprise? I am doubtful but March is unpredictable and has delivered big time in the past. 

All of the 6z models heavily disagree with your No snow Sunday statement.

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19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think many in the lsv see the ground covered again.  But did see the warm up coming next week.  GL runner.  Maybe highs below freezing Sun and Mon though.

@canderson moved back to Texas, but he didn’t tell us, so I think he is forecasting for down there. 
He needs to find out which southern thread that he should post in on this website.

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7 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Snow Sunday....teens Monday AM.  What is all this garden talk?  Oh, a beer garden? 

 

A few people on here are acting like it’s March 12th instead of February 12th…

It’s almost like this is their first Winter in Central PA….

Every year these same people need reminded that we can get great snow chances here until late March.

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14 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

61 here today.  MDT now stands 1.3 ABV Normal for the month,  not counting today,  so it's going to spike into the mid to upper 1's as of tomorrow.   Not extreme though. Last month ended -2.7 if no one posted.  Have had to check out of weather a bit to deal with career issues and keep filling my glass. 

Sorry to hear about your career issues.

I hope that all is well soon for you!

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@canderson moved back to Texas, but he didn’t tell us, so I think he is forecasting for down there. 
He needs to find out which southern thread that he should post in on this website.

I feel where he is coming from in that there is no sign of major snows...frustrating.   But it does look quite wintery for Sun-Tue or Wed. 

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I looked at the old Euro Weeklies run from from December 30th for the period ending February 14th.

The snow forecast was very accurate on this run for the LSV. Harrisburg is currently sitting at 10 inches of snow through today. There is a decent chance of 1 inch of snow tomorrow, so the 11 inches at Harrisburg by 2/14 might be right on point.

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Here is the most recent Euro Weeklies run from this week through March 28th.

I would sign up now for 9 more inches of snow at Harrisburg by late March if this run verified. This would bring MDT to near 20 inches for the season. We would still be about 10 inches below normal snow for the season, but it would make it a little more respectable snow year.

4461AC85-05D5-4B2C-B187-6D7C5FB53586.png

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the most recent Euro Weeklies run from this week through March 28th.

I would sign up now for 9 more inches of snow at Harrisburg by late March if this run verified. This would bring MDT to near 20 inches for the season. We would still be about 10 inches below normal snow for the season, but it would make it a little more respectable snow year.

 

Yea, right now we are at a "Top 5" low, right?  Maybe second or third worst?  Too early to assume its going to happen but still...

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, right now we are at a "Top 5" low, right?  Maybe second or third worst?  Too early to assume its going to happen but still...

Here are the last 40 or so snow seasons since 1980 at Harrisburg.

We have a couple of years beat already, and are a few inches of snow from taking down a few more seasons.

Lots of time to still get into the 20 inch range to get closer to the median snow.

8EBCF4B9-13E2-4233-A193-F5210D9627F9.png

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It’s not going to snow Sunday - well some southern spots might get mood flurries I guess. Then we spike up again to near 60 by late week. Big rains Thursday to wash away the remaining salt - will be nice. 
Maybe we luck out with a March surprise? I am doubtful but March is unpredictable and has delivered big time in the past. 

I think that is an inaccurate statement. It’s going to snow. Im skeptical of whether it sticks or not, but there will be snow overnight into tomorrow morning.
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I think we’re looking at a scenario where souther tier counties like Lanc and York see 1-2”, with places NW of there being lucky to see an inch and a few places just SE of there popping 3”. We have a bit of dry air to overcome initially but I don’t see too many issues with stickage with snowfall arriving overnight and temps falling into the 20s. Hopefully a little white when we awake to brighten up Superbowl Sunday. There are worse things. 

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