canderson Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 18 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Curious if anyone on the board has had less seasonal snowfall than me so far? I'm at 8.9". I'm at 8.9 too. MDT has more than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 11 minutes ago, canderson said: I'm at 8.9 too. MDT has more than me. Well I'll be a monkey's uncle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Curious if anyone on the board has had less seasonal snowfall than me so far? I'm at 8.9". 42 minutes ago, canderson said: I'm at 8.9 too. MDT has more than me. I'm killing it! I'm at a lofty 10.6" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 18z GFS pretty close to making a decent event with the potential Valentine’s Day-ish storm. Actually for the forum majority (LSV) it’s pretty good H-burg south. An improvement from 12z which had a lighter area of snow run the Mid-Atlantic but not getting into southern PA. Looks like it’s generated from the northern stream energy attempted to interact with the southern. Canadian today also had this (pretty light) while the Euro was a nothing burger. Definitely don’t think this threat is dead. The pattern alignment is there in that timeframe that if we can get good interaction/phase in time, this can be the type of event we’ve been looking for. This could also turn into another 1/29 (in terms of placement of best snow) if this comes back toward the storm scenario but not in time for us. Or… it could be nothing, but I think we’re already aware of that possibility. Either way this is still D5-6, which has felt like the limit this winter for the models starting to consistently start dialing in on something. Not that they ever are consistent at that range and beyond but models have seemed to have more trouble than usual in the mid range this winter. Likely due to the progressive pattern and many moving parts. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I trust you @MAG5035- I’m not smart enough to see the change lol So what time is the cold front conking through Saturday? Want to go to dinner but we are avoiding restaurants due to covid and if it’s not until overnight then a 56 degree outdoor meal is perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 As @MAG5035 said, the 18z GFS gets us some Super Bowl Sunday snow in southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdbean Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Curious if anyone on the board has had less seasonal snowfall than me so far? I'm at 8.9". Last I noticed Lancaster City has 6.2”, not only the lowest total in PA but also NJ and DE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 53 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I already posted in the mid Atlantic thread but 18z Eps keeps the door open for all possible solutions for Sunday . Here’s the member plots for MDT on 24 hr snow for both 18z Euro and GFS. I mean it’s still a good majority with not much but there’s definitely a signal there on both ensembles. The GEFS mean is showing roughly the evolution of what the last couple runs of the GFS op has been doing while there appears to be some Euro members (about 6-8 on rough count) that manage to yank this thing up the coast (even one or two cut and had the snow swath in western PA). 18z Euro EPS 18z GEFS Will say these ensemble meteograms looked nothing like this at around this range when we were trying to reel in the 1/28-29 storm. It took a while into the game before they finally started locking in on that one. So we’ll see if the better signal earlier can continue to improve. This is definitely worth watching the next couple days. Like I’ve said, we have the pattern alignment we need showing in this timeframe with a great western ridge. The key is how the features interact and their timing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Currently 17ºF/15ºF outside. This is the current situation just down the street… another busted water line. Fortunately my water comes from the other way. That’s the 3rd one I’ve come across around the city in the last 5 nights. This cold stretch has done a number on that and the roads (bulges, pot holes, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Up early saw this posted it’s not a bad start. Gfs was a lot better this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 The 6z GFS shows a way to get good snow into southern PA this weekend. Most of the snow here is from interaction with the cold front. The main coastal still gets going too far offshore, but the potential is there to pull that back a bit closer in to deliver even more. I would sign up for the 6z GFS right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Here is the 6z GFS snow map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 6 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Currently 17ºF/15ºF outside. This is the current situation just down the street… another busted water line. Fortunately my water comes from the other way. That’s the 3rd one I’ve come across around the city in the last 5 nights. This cold stretch has done a number on that and the roads (bulges, pot holes, etc). Yes, I've noticed quite a bit of frost heave on the roads, even the stretch of I-81 that I routinely run on has been a bit more bumpy lately. The frost heave usually settles back down after the winter, or a prolonged warm spell. The potholes, well, all they can do is cold patch them until the hot mix plants open back up, so after a few days, the potholes reopen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Where does this stuff come from? I see a forecast of dry all week, so I wash the vehicles, and all of a sudden, out of nowhere, showers (either rain or snow) pop up. Tonight A slight chance of rain and snow showers between 10pm and midnight, then a chance of snow showers. Increasing clouds, with a low around 31. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday A chance of rain and snow showers before 10am, then a slight chance of rain showers between 10am and noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Light southwest wind becoming west 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Well, per 0z the American, the Canadian, and the Brit all give us some form of accumulating snow on Super Bowl Sunday from the interaction of the frontal boundary with the coastal low. Waiting for the EU to come on board but she's not too far off. Developing...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Well, per 0z the American, the Canadian, and the Brit all give us some form of accumulating snow on Super Bowl Sunday from the interaction of the frontal boundary with the coastal low. Waiting for the EU to come on board but she's not too far off. Developing...... Let's hope and it is not 384hr away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 6z GFS snow map Blizz magic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 12 degrees this morning. I would take a clipper for 100...pickings are slim. still got some decent hard snow pack. The river is froze solid. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 15 minutes ago, paweather said: Let's hope and it is not 384hr away! verbatim, looking at ens guidance says we need to score on this one, cause it may be our 1 shot at winter down here. Way to far out to worry yet, but lookin at ens guidance doesnt show the cold holding. Havent looked at tellies to see how things match up, but just throwin it out there. Pattern still looks progressive so we should get chances for stuff, but deep winter looks a bit challenging here (may be a good thing, cause deep winter has been craptastic for us in LSV). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: verbatim, looking at ens guidance says we need to score on this one, cause it may be our 1 shot at winter down here. Way to far out to worry yet, but lookin at ens guidance doesnt show the cold holding. Havent looked at tellies to see how things match up, but just throwin it out there. Pattern still looks progressive so we should get chances for stuff, but deep winter looks a bit challenging here (may be a good thing, cause deep winter has been craptastic for us in LSV). Agree it certainly has been crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, paweather said: Agree it certainly has been crap. and as you look at the state and see who's had snow and who hasn't, this is why I'm fine w/ less frequent snows so long as they stick around (like pawatch pic above). that'd brighten my (and prob others moods) a bunch in the last month. BTW, I'm not worried about todays warmup....i wont lose any brown from the warmth. Is what it is, but it sucks TBH) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: and as you look at the state and see who's had snow and who hasn't, this is why I'm fine w/ less frequent snows so long as they stick around (like pawatch pic above). that'd brighten my (and prob others moods) a bunch in the last month. BTW, I'm not worried about todays warmup....i wont lose any brown from the warmth. Is what it is, but it sucks TBH) Yep let's hope for a good 12z run for the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: and as you look at the state and see who's had snow and who hasn't, this is why I'm fine w/ less frequent snows so long as they stick around (like pawatch pic above). that'd brighten my (and prob others moods) a bunch in the last month. BTW, I'm not worried about todays warmup....i wont lose any brown from the warmth. Is what it is, but it sucks TBH) Golf courses opened back up for the first time since Jan 7th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Elliott says that the ridge axis favors a direct hit this weekend but the progressive nature of the pattern favors a miss. Our ground truth Sunday ultimately comes down to which feature wins out. So far this winter, it's been the progressiveness of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I bottomed out at 19 last night. A bit of an unusual suspect has been showing up as the national low temp the last couple of days, that being the high-elevation cold sink of Angel Fire, NM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: I bottomed out at 19 last night. A bit of an unusual suspect has been showing up as the national low temp the last couple of days, that being the high-elevation cold sink of Angel Fire, NM. Was surprised that it got as cold as it did, we radiated out well last night. I was right behind you at 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Was surprised that it got as cold as it did, we radiated out well last night. I was right behind you at 20. Yeah it caught me a bit off-guard as well. To be honest, I'm not sure what the forecast was calling for but I wasn't expecting to see a reading in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yeah it caught me a bit off-guard as well. To be honest, I'm not sure what the forecast was calling for but I wasn't expecting to see a reading in the teens. CTP had us at 26 for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Elliott says that the ridge axis favors a direct hit this weekend but the progressive nature of the pattern favors a miss. Our ground truth Sunday ultimately comes down to which feature wins out. So far this winter, it's been the progressiveness of the pattern. Let's hope for a direct hit to salvage winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, paweather said: Let's hope for a direct hit to salvage winter Great way to run a Super Bowl - snow flyin' and pilin'.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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