Santa Clause Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Lol ice divides this forum like political parties. It’s kinda fun and way less annoying than politics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 From Elizabethtown to Carlisle at 430 tomorrow morning, I'm wondering should I stay at a hotel in Carlisle or try to make it to work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 39 minutes ago, TimB84 said: My wife has a master’s degree and I guarantee you she has no idea what a NWS forecast discussion is or where to find one. Probably also didn’t know prior to seeing me looking at weather models that there was a place where peons like you or I could see the GFS run every 6 hours, or even what the GFS is. It is probably her masters degree that helps her make the decision to not waste time here like we do. (Joke) 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is probably her masters degree that helps her make the decision to not waste time here like we do. (Joke) A master's degree does not necessarily mean you don't waste your time chasing a tenth an inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Looks like after tomorrow we will go to the end of the month before any winter event could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, anotherman said: A master's degree does not necessarily mean you don't waste your time chasing a tenth an inch of ice. That was why I put Joke afterwards. :-). I am sure there are several people here (board wide) with doctorates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: That was why I put Joke afterwards. :-). I am sure there are several people here (board wide) with doctorates. Yes, that post was in reference to me. Hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, anotherman said: Yes, that post was in reference to me. Hahahaha I figured. Getting a little bragging in. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 20 minutes ago, paweather said: Looks like after tomorrow we will go to the end of the month before any winter event could happen If that’s true winter is over. March snow is annoying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 51 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: From Elizabethtown to Carlisle at 430 tomorrow morning, I'm wondering should I stay at a hotel in Carlisle or try to make it to work? I don’t think roads down here will have any issues. CTP says MDT will have less than .1” zr - that won’t cause road problems. The later snow - if not does - won’t stick either they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Lol I’m so confused on what to expect so I’m guessing a tenth of an inch of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, canderson said: If that’s true winter is over. March snow is annoying. I kind of agree but a good March snowstorm I will it any day. Not the mood flake snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: I kind of agree but a good March snowstorm I will it any day. Not the mood flake snow. Who had Feb 3rd for the first winters over post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, paweather said: I guess that means no naked streaking in Harrisburg today. Sauss is off the hook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Who had Feb 3rd for the first winters over post? HAHA! Canderson guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'll just add this - does anyone have any idea how many times CTP has hoisted Winter Storm Warnings, Advisories, etc. only for them to end up not verifying? Me either. But I'll tell you it has happened a lot. People complain about why no advisory, why no warning, why no this or that...they've issued a ton of warnings over the years that failed. Remember that piece, too. A couple of years ago CTP had a Winter Storm Warning for Harrisburg for 8-10" of snow the morning of the storm. I thought they were ludicrous, but everyone else in here was happy. That afternoon they dropped it to an advisory for 2-4". People started blasting them. Then the snow started and some here were demanding that the warning got reissued. It didn't. MDT finished with 2.9" of snow. Advisory verified. Warning fell far short. Point is - with some people, they were wrong either way. They do their best. Personally, I think the criticism is often unfair and unwarranted. Go ahead. Tell me how wrong I am. I don't think CTP sucks per se, but when I look at the output of LWX, PHI and BGM, they all are superior in terms of discussion, explanations and timeliness. Now who is most accurate? Beats me and of course that's where the rubber hits the road for Joe Public. And as Atomic stated earlier, it's only us weenies would be having this type of discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Fog settling in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Fog settling in now Light rain and 46 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Light rain and 46 here now. No fog? It is coming in pretty quick here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, Festus said: I don't think CTP sucks per se, but when I look at the output of LWX, PHI and BGM, they all are superior in terms of discussion, explanations and timeliness. Now who is most accurate? Beats me and of course that's where the rubber hits the road for Joe Public. And as Atomic stated earlier, it's only us weenies would be having this type of discussion. Read a few discussions from PBZ and then complain about anything CTP does. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, paweather said: No fog? It is coming in pretty quick here Not too much. I did not have a lot of snow left though. Probably a lot of fog over Cashtowns way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 40.6 degrees with light rain continuing here. Rainfall so far = 0.60". That's about 33% of the storm total forecasted by the GFS last night. Snowpack is showing signs of taking on water with a little slushiness becoming visible. Still at 1.5" but probably for not many more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I've been watching the rain/snow line on Accuweather radar, and it hasn't budged an inch all day so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: I've been watching the rain/snow line on Accuweather radar, and it hasn't budged an inch all day so far. Look at the cutoff wow. I am up on south shore of ontario. East side of rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Look at the cutoff wow. I am up on south shore of ontario. East side of rochester. This is a mesoscale model wrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: This is a mesoscale model wrf Crazy, but I've seen that down my way in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: Crazy, but I've seen that down my way in the past. Probally much more common down in se pa with coastal fronts. Don't usually see cutoffs like that up in upstate ny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 23 minutes ago, tim123 said: Look at the cutoff wow. I am up on south shore of ontario. East side of rochester. This is the weirdest way for the rich to get richer lol. Does it hurt when you fall UP a flight of stairs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 42.8 at the moment which the high of the day. 0.75" liquid. Alas, at 10:1, that's 7.5" of snow I did not receive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Quote Snow totals continue to drop off farther to the south toward I-80 with 0.5-1.5" of mainly sleet (counted as snow) expected along this corridor. The primary fzra/icing zone continues to be focused between US-6 and US-22 or over the interior 2/3 of the CWA. We were keen to temper top-down derived ice totals due to the expectation of more sleet in the transition zone and relatively mild/above freezing sfc and road temps prior to the changeover from rain to icy mix. In other words, we think fzra accretion will be limited by preceding mild temps and moderate intensity rates. We are still concerned about a rain to heavy sleet scenario which could be just as or even more impactful than warning level snow. . That was out of part of CTP’s morning discussion. I agree to a point, you have to be careful with modeled freezing rain as actual observed ice accrual is very sensitive to drop size, rain intensity, surface temps, etc etc. 0.75” of conditional freezing rain QPF on x model doesn’t often translate to 0.75” thick ice on the trees. With all that said, my big thing about this particular event the last couple days is I feel there has been sufficient support to reach 0.25” ice in a good portion of this swath of the CWA mentioned above on that AFD snippet. I honestly expected watches to be issued yesterday on all the counties at least down to I-80 given that support plus this being a multi-faceted potential high impact event between the combo of near warning to warning level ice plus sleet and snow..And they’re still worried about this rain to heavy sleet thing too. As far as surface and road temps, I agree with that in the Sus Valley but most of the interior 2/3rd of the CWA between US 6 and US 22 has a snowpack and frozen ground from the long stretch of cold weather. Some of the secondary roads around here froze up early this morning despite temps above 32 since about mid day yesterday. Plus if sleet does in fact mix in sooner, that’s just going to cool surfaces faster anyways. And further down in the Sus Valley I was surprised first thing this morning that it initially wasn’t included when advisories finally did get issued. I guess I don’t understand why it took so long. A T of ice warrants an advisory, and that has looked likely even in the further reaches of the LSV for awhile. Just my thoughts, I’m not hating on the NWS by any means. Moral of the story is this type of event is very difficult and frustrating to forecast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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