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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

My interpretation of the Euro is that the precip races out before most of the cold air.  Will have to see ice accretion but guessing .1 or so in the LSV.   Just a guess. 

Yeah think your right and the EURO could be right as we don't often win in these situations down here.

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1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

I feel like MAG, KTX, and myself are going to be in a weird spot with this one being not far enough NW to get the good stuff but not east and south enough for all the liquid. It's tough to tell. 

Yea it always is with this type of an event. I kinda disagree with CTP minimizing the ZR threat in favor or a more rain to sleet/snow. I think once that near 1040 high gets positioned just to our north, surface cold is going to try to bleed deeper into central PA before the 925mb-800mb layer cools enough to at least allow for more sleet… which will allow for a longer period of freezing rain. We’re usually lamenting not having a stronger high with these messy systems and we actually have a decent one eventually during this event. We all start this main wave on Thur as rain but I think you guys up there see more frozen (sleet than eventually snow) and a shorter ZR period for a transition, while this area down here could be more 50/50 ZR and sleet turning to T-2” type snow at the end. Then the big thing for the Sus Valley is going to be determining how much ice and sleet can accumulate towards the tail end as the snow threat has been pretty minimal there and the snowier models (GFS and Euro) have really tightened the gradient on the SE side of the swath the last couple runs.

Here’s what the 12z HREF had for freezing rain, it’s a model that CTP seems to utilize a good bit in short/near term.. which is another reason I’m kind of surprised the ZR is being downplayed. It has a pretty widespread area of .25-.50” (warning criteria ice)

1142227139_SPCHREFEnsembleViewer-24-hrFRAMaccretionensmean.thumb.png.b330fbe74daed7d8b4986d766c22a099.png

 

The model only goes out to 48hr and the event isn’t over yet at 12z Friday, so here’s it’s positioning of the p-types at the end of the run. 

695677291_SPCHREFEnsembleViewer-1-hrQPFanddominanttypeensmean.thumb.png.213e74b5da4e71d292f4a9ecd9a508dd.png

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Sure was nice to get outside today.  Hit some golf balls in the backyard for the first time in awhile.  Comical to watch the ball bounce 10' in the air after landing on the rock hard frozen ground.  Lots 'o winter remaining but getting twitchy for spring.

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2 minutes ago, Festus said:

Sure was nice to get outside today.  Hit some golf balls in the backyard for the first time in awhile.  Comical to watch the ball bounce 10' in the air after landing on the rock hard frozen ground.  Lots 'o winter remaining but getting twitchy for spring.

Lot's of 45-50's showing up in the southern LSV.  Nice respite before more cold moves in. 

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Since snow maps are being used to show how bad this snow event may be for some of us (which is just fine), I'll throw this one out for the masses.  Coming from the leader of the model pack as well, so you can decide how many chips you wanna throw down on it verifying.....

While still "bad" for me, I'd bet many here would give body parts for this to verify.  If only.............

Stare at it long and hard, cause in a few hours it goes poof....Hope you get a good chuckle like I did.

gfs_asnow_neus_65.png

 

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13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Since snow maps are being used to show how bad this snow event may be for some of us (which is just fine), I'll throw this one out for the masses.  Coming from the leader of the model pack as well, so you can decide how many chips you wanna throw down on it verifying.....

While still "bad" for me, I'd bet many here would give body parts for this to verify.  If only.............

Stare at it long and hard, cause in a few hours it goes poof....Hope you get a good chuckle like I did.

gfs_asnow_neus_65.png

 

I’ll take the over.

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39ºF here this afternoon so far and cloudy with 26ºF dewpoint. Surprisingly it got all the way down into the upper teens this morning (17.5ºF). Not very much snowpack melt, which is currently a 3-6” hard pack in the yard. 

599171045_AmbientWeather.thumb.png.96dfec1ff2b567ce8fc656ade673b1ed.png

Since I got this new weather station rolling just after midnight on the 15th of Jan I don’t have full January monthly data but the mean temperature the last 2.5 weeks from then til now is 19.7ºF, and there were a couple 24 hour periods (midnight to midnight) that averaged in the single digits. It’s been pretty cold here lately. 

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6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

39ºF here this afternoon so far and cloudy with 26ºF dewpoint. Surprisingly it got all the way down into the upper teens this morning (17.5ºF). Not very much snowpack melt, which is currently a 3-6” hard pack in the yard. 

599171045_AmbientWeather.thumb.png.96dfec1ff2b567ce8fc656ade673b1ed.png

Since I got this new weather station rolling just after midnight on the 15th of Jan I don’t have full January monthly data but the mean temperature the last 2.5 weeks from then til now is 19.7ºF, and there were a couple 24 hour periods (midnight to midnight) that averaged in the single digits. It’s been pretty cold here lately. 

Man you keep your house COLD. @Itstrainingtimeneeds to step up. 

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41 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Since snow maps are being used to show how bad this snow event may be for some of us (which is just fine), I'll throw this one out for the masses.  Coming from the leader of the model pack as well, so you can decide how many chips you wanna throw down on it verifying.....

While still "bad" for me, I'd bet many here would give body parts for this to verify.  If only.............

Stare at it long and hard, cause in a few hours it goes poof....Hope you get a good chuckle like I did.

gfs_asnow_neus_65.png

 

That's insane

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