Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Albedoman]

3 hours ago, Albedoman said:

I posted this yesterday in the philly forum FWIW. I see no changes to my initial thoughts after the 12Z runs for the LV/Berks area.

 

I would not trust the Euro right now- to wishy washy. The GFS has the right idea but way overdone. Somewhere in the middle - light rain to 4-6 hours of freezing rain/sleet  then to wet snow for the LV.  Very typical scenario for an "Ohio Valley Flyer" storm event. Usual results -- is a 4-6 inch snow event for us- higher snow accumulations near the Williamsport area . I also call this "salt drainer storm event" as municipal salt supplies can take a hell of a hit in a hurry for road treatment, especially if the cold hits hard afterwards.  This upcoming pattern definitely reminds me of 1994 when I drove on snow/ice rutted roads for a week  to work.  I remember 222 / Hamilton Blvd was a complete mess where you actually had to drive along the curbs to find snow to drive on when you came to the intersections to stop as the rest of the intersection was packed down and rutted ice.  The snow drought areas of Ohio should do well on this event too.

 

I lived and experienced driving through 1994, one ice/small snow storm event after  another.  Salt was in short supply. When 2-3 inches of sleet and freezing rain gets packed down on the untreated  roads, its a losing battle , especially when it snows and temps drop into the teens for highs. The sun cannot melt the packed down icy surface.  My main concern for this event is that a flash turnover from rain to freezing rain will occur for several hours then going over to heavy sleet. 

Valentines 2007 was a nightmare that I will never forget . I live  a few miles from 78, on Rt 100. I got the hell off that road that afternoon and the sleet was literally glued to every surface imaginable.  The PADOT policy of waiting until you get 2-3 inches of snow to drop the blade DOES NOT WORK with sleet. You must get that crap off the road and salt the living hell out of it to make it to a dough paste out of the accumulated sleet on the surface.

Again I will stay with my thoughts above in bold.  The current 18Z runs of the NAM are usually warmer at 60-84 and I expect they will become colder  by tomorrow 12Z runs in this storm event.  The Euro is trying to adjust and the GFS is still in the ball game with frontal positioning. Its basically all depending on HP strength  and how quick and strong the LP develops in the lower Ohio Valley. We will have a good picture by Wednesday 0z runs.

 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Albedoman said:

I lived and experienced driving through 1994, one ice/small snow storm event after  another.  Salt was in short supply. When 2-3 inches of sleet and freezing rain gets packed down on the untreated  roads, its a losing battle , especially when it snows and temps drop into the teens for highs. The sun cannot melt the packed down icy surface.  My main concern for this event is that a flash turnover from rain to freezing rain will occur for several hours then going over to heavy sleet. 

Valentines 2007 was a nightmare that I will never forget . I live  a few miles from 78, on Rt 100. I got the hell off that road that afternoon and the sleet was literally glued to every surface imaginable.  The PADOT policy of waiting until you get 2-3 inches of snow to drop the blade DOES NOT WORK with sleet. You must get that crap off the road and salt the living hell out of it to make it to a dough paste out of the accumulated sleet on the surface.

Again I will stay with my thoughts above in bold.  The current 18Z runs of the NAM are usually warmer at 60-84 and I expect they will become colder  by tomorrow 12Z runs in this storm event.  The Euro is trying to adjust and the GFS is still in the ball game with frontal positioning. Its basically all depending on HP strength  and how quick and strong the LP develops in the lower Ohio Valley. We will have a good picture by Wednesday 0z runs.

 

Thanks for your feedback 

[paweather]

Wow!

[Bubbler86]

13 minutes ago, paweather said:

Wow!

 

The Trainer is in the 50's at 6Z Fri on the Nam and Icon...and low 30's on the GFS. 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

The Trainer is in the 50's at 6Z Fri on the Nam and Icon...and low 30's on the GFS. 

Yep GO with the GFS the king of models 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The Trainer is in the 50's at 6Z Fri on the Nam and Icon...and low 30's on the GFS. 

Model mayhem! I'm running the AC according to the Nam and Icon, and according to the GFS I'm running the...eh. Never mind. LOL

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Model mayhem! I'm running the AC according to the Nam and Icon, and according to the GFS I'm running the...eh. Never mind. LOL

A little less A/C is what you meant to say, right? 

[Bubbler86]

GFS puts the wham jam on @CarlislePaWx

 

[mahantango#1]

Hit 40 today now that sun went down 28. Seems very little melting with that ice pack we have.

[mahantango#1]

Went to Sunbury, pa. Today. While in Sunbury by the river around 11 this morning the temp on my car was 22 I got out of Sunbury about a mile and a half on top of a hill on rt  147 the temp went to 28. It amazement me the temp difference location to location. And I know that ground must be really cold that's its limiting the melting during the day.

[CarlislePaWx]

32 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS puts the wham jam on @CarlislePaWx

So you noticed, huh?  I was just reviewing the breakdown of precip volume and types.  That little lighter color in the middle of Cumberland county is about 1.11".  According to the GFS I will first have 1.23" of plain rain.  By around 9pm Thursday evening my surface temperature falls below freezing.  Then I have 1.11" of heavy freezing rain while the temperature continues to fall into the 20s.  That 1.11" of freezing rain produces 0.63" of ice accrual, which, if materialized, would easily be classified as a severe ice storm.  Then as an end of storm bonus, it changes over to snow around 9:00am Friday and finishes off with 3" of snow.  The total qpf of everything for the event is 2.12" according to the Pivotal maps, however, adding up the individual liquids comes to around 2.50".  So, I don't know how they calculate that, but maybe @MAG5035could explain??

If this played out verbatim there would be some winter chaos everywhere.  We'll see if the GFS continues to insist on this colder solution at 0Z.

32 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

 

[medmax]

Like I said, freezing rain doesn’t verify here as a primary component of a storm. The valley allows it to happen, but we are too transient of an area climo-wise to allow the lower level cold air to stick around when strong WAA prevails.

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, paweather said:

Heading way left Angry HAPPY HOUR

LSV was never really in this one.  We were teased early on w/ SE ticks, but nothing near enough.  No surprise at all.  I'da been happy for a bit of consolation frozen stuff, and still think it happens a bit.  I said it a yesterday, this is and always one to watch from pit to poconos and pts NW.   Norther and westers rejoice once again.  We'll get one sometime...this year next year...who knows. 

Time for some who are longing for it, to get in car n roadtrip a bit.  Northern Pa likely to have 15-18" snowpack after this event.  They'd be happy for your business....go enjoy the winter wonderland up there.

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

That's not quite true regarding no ice, but Bubbler is right about a substantial reduction of the freezing rain due to a delay in the push of arctic air vs heavy precip.  Here's a comparison between 12z first:

Compared now to 18z...

So as you can easily see, a drastic reduction in freezing rain as the heavy precip pulls through while temps stay warmer longer.  

Checking surface temps first 12z Friday:

MDT hits 32 at 7am Friday morning with a fair amount of precip still to come.

Versus 18z temps:

look at 4:00am first followed by 7:00am.  Temp at MDT crashes 17 degrees in 3 hours...

7:00am

I won't post the snow maps because both runs give the entire lsv a big goose egg.

I'm definitely anxious to see the 18z GFS to see if it begins to abandon ship or not.

 

Great (well not really) post bud.  Well done.

[MAG5035]

Basic 18z Euro breakdown. It’s about as good if not better in C-PA for snowfall vs the GFS now. Good part of the LSV sees ice.  Only bigger difference is in the transition. GFS is a prolific sleet maker while the Euro is more of a ZR to snow transition with much less sleet. Personally I think with this setup there will be a zone of measurable sleet somewhere but that may come at the expense of snow…especially in the central counties where both models do manage advisory snow at the tail end. 

Euro vs GFS sleet:

 Euro total QPF:

 Euro total Freezing rain accum

Euro total snowfall:

 

[Blizzard of 93]

18z Euro is looking very icy for Friday am especially from the Harrisburg area on west & north.

Hopefully this trends back into more sleet & snow over the next 2 days near the LSV. Freezing rain is the worst.

Here are the 7am Friday temps & surface map with precip type.

[Blizzard of 93]

18z Euro still has frozen precip for most at 1pm Friday,

 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z Euro still has frozen precip for most at 1pm Friday,

 

 

I think that is the crux of the difference between some of the models.  Nam and Icon are both finished up or close to it by that point vs. the wide swath of precip on the Euro. 

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

So you noticed, huh?  I was just reviewing the breakdown of precip volume and types.  That little lighter color in the middle of Cumberland county is about 1.11".  According to the GFS I will first have 1.23" of plain rain.  By around 9pm Thursday evening my surface temperature falls below freezing.  Then I have 1.11" of heavy freezing rain while the temperature continues to fall into the 20s.  That 1.11" of freezing rain produces 0.63" of ice accrual, which, if materialized, would easily be classified as a severe ice storm.  Then as an end of storm bonus, it changes over to snow around 9:00am Friday and finishes off with 3" of snow.  The total qpf of everything for the event is 2.12" according to the Pivotal maps, however, adding up the individual liquids comes to around 2.50".  So, I don't know how they calculate that, but maybe @MAG5035could explain??

If this played out verbatim there would be some winter chaos everywhere.  We'll see if the GFS continues to insist on this colder solution at 0Z.

 

Hmm I’m not sure, the WeatherBell total QPF maps also had the 2.12”. Something’s lumped together probably. Some of that 1.11” heavy freezing rain is likely part of the the 1.23” of plain rain. Adding the 1.23 of plain rain and 0.63” ice is 1.86” and adding approx 3” of snow which was about 10:1 even on Kuchera comes out near that 2.12”. Either way it’s a lot of p-types to sort out of a lot of QPF. 

[paweather]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

LSV was never really in this one.  We were teased early on w/ SE ticks, but nothing near enough.  No surprise at all.  I'da been happy for a bit of consolation frozen stuff, and still think it happens a bit.  I said it a yesterday, this is and always one to watch from pit to poconos and pts NW.   Norther and westers rejoice once again.  We'll get one sometime...this year next year...who knows. 

Time for some who are longing for it, to get in car n roadtrip a bit.  Northern Pa likely to have 15-18" snowpack after this event.  They'd be happy for your business....go enjoy the winter wonderland up there.

So you don’t call Freezing rain sleet and then snow 4” nothing 

[Blizzard of 93]

13 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Hmm I’m not sure, the WeatherBell total QPF maps also had the 2.12”. Something’s lumped together probably. Some of that 1.11” heavy freezing rain is likely part of the the 1.23” of plain rain. Adding the 1.23 of plain rain and 0.63” ice is 1.86” and adding approx 3” of snow which was about 10:1 even on Kuchera comes out near that 2.12”. Either way it’s a lot of p-types to sort out of a lot of QPF. 

Do you think that there are any more trends left in the models over the next 2 days?

Could the cold press a bit more & the second wave slow a little to produce more snow towards the LSV as some Euro, Ukie & GFS runs over the last few days have occasionally shown?

[canderson]

.5” zr is problematic. Very. 

[KPITSnow]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

.5” zr is problematic. Very. 

Out my way I am

PRAYING for sleet. 

[Streak]

6 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Another lesson in Nam temps.   If sunny, add 4-6 degrees. 3K had us peaking in the 35-36 area. 

“Sun angle” is mentioned from time to time here more as a joke but about what time of year can/does sun angle truly become an issue? Does it happen as early as, say, mid February?

We had partly to mostly sunny skies with no or very light wind today and yesterday, and on both days there was a notable difference stepping out of the shade of the front porch and into the sunlight. We’re only at the beginning of February and I’m sure there’s plenty of arctic cold yet to come, but the sun already seems a bit stronger to me.

[pasnownut]

24 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Hmm I’m not sure, the WeatherBell total QPF maps also had the 2.12”. Something’s lumped together probably. Some of that 1.11” heavy freezing rain is likely part of the the 1.23” of plain rain. Adding the 1.23 of plain rain and 0.63” ice is 1.86” and adding approx 3” of snow which was about 10:1 even on Kuchera comes out near that 2.12”. Either way it’s a lot of p-types to sort out of a lot of QPF. 

wow...that sure is quite the "mix".  Hope you guys get hammered.  I'd love me a good sleetfest w/ a little snow on top before it shuts down.  Not likely, but not impossible at 2.5 days out.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Streak said:

“Sun angle” is mentioned from time to time here more as a joke but about what time of year can/does sun angle truly become an issue? Does it happen as early as, say, mid February?

We had partly to mostly sunny skies with no or very light wind today and yesterday, and on both days there was a notable difference stepping out of the shade of the front porch and into the sunlight. We’re only at the beginning of February and I’m sure there’s plenty of arctic cold yet to come, but the sun already seems a bit stronger to me.

Sun angle is complex. Some factors to consider:

• How much light is filtering through - not all overcast skies are the same.
• Rate of snowfall. Heavy snow (true heavy snow) will accumulate on all surfaces in mid March with temps near freezing. But it needs to be ripping
• Time of day snow is falling
• I contend that sun angle issues have begun in SOME sense. For example, light snow in late December might accumulate on all surfaces at 30. We just saw last week that isn't the case any longer

There's a lot to this, and I take notes of every snowfall at different times, different rates, etc. Anyone that tells you that sun angle issues are reserved only for March...well, that's just not true. Though like I said, it depends on several factors. 

[pasnownut]

23 minutes ago, paweather said:

So you don’t call Freezing rain sleet and then snow 4” nothing 

you know I want the GFS/Euro to be right wrt SLP and precip being advertised, but once again, just north and west of HBG will likely be a notably different event than down here south of the mtns (thinking frozen vs non frozen).  As I've stated for the last 2 days, we need the cold press to get here quicker and SLP to slow a bit (MBY does anyway).  4" of snow has not really been showing on anything other than GFS down here (and as we all know, TT maps dont break it down well, so likely much of that frozen is IP/ZR).  Just watching boundary layers/thermals tick back NW is a kiss of death for LSV.  Just cant polish that turd pal.  For us down here, it is what it is and has been all too often.  If I lived in Magville to Voyagerville, I'd be watchin like a hawk....and I'm rootin for all peeps N and W of there to get the goods.  

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, Streak said:

“Sun angle” is mentioned from time to time here more as a joke but about what time of year can/does sun angle truly become an issue? Does it happen as early as, say, mid February?

We had partly to mostly sunny skies with no or very light wind today and yesterday, and on both days there was a notable difference stepping out of the shade of the front porch and into the sunlight. We’re only at the beginning of February and I’m sure there’s plenty of arctic cold yet to come, but the sun already seems a bit stronger to me.

I do think the sun feels stronger than 10-15 years ago but unsure how much of that is due to changes in myself due to age.  But, my comments about the nam go beyond sun angle.  The nam has been too low on sunny days all summer as well.  Other suites were low sometimes as well but the nam was always close to the lowest.  It was off by 6-10 degrees for most of the LSV today.  That is a very serious bust.  Got to 43 here.  7 higher than the highest mark on the 3k nam.

[Itstrainingtime]

Kyle Elliott downplaying both Friday and Sunday for the LSV here: https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

[paweather]

26 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

you know I want the GFS/Euro to be right wrt SLP and precip being advertised, but once again, just north and west of HBG will likely be a notably different event than down here south of the mtns (thinking frozen vs non frozen).  As I've stated for the last 2 days, we need the cold press to get here quicker and SLP to slow a bit (MBY does anyway).  4" of snow has not really been showing on anything other than GFS down here (and as we all know, TT maps dont break it down well, so likely much of that frozen is IP/ZR).  Just watching boundary layers/thermals tick back NW is a kiss of death for LSV.  Just cant polish that turd pal.  For us down here, it is what it is and has been all too often.  If I lived in Magville to Voyagerville, I'd be watchin like a hawk....and I'm rootin for all peeps N and W of there to get the goods.  

It can be different