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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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CTP's forecast for Harrisburg. Wonder what the record amount of sleet is for this area? 

Thursday Night
Rain before 4am, then rain and sleet. Low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday
Sleet, possibly mixed with rain, snow, and freezing rain before 7am, then rain, snow, and freezing rain likely. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
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I posted this yesterday in the philly forum FWIW. I see no changes to my initial thoughts after the 12Z runs for the LV/Berks area.

 

I would not trust the Euro right now- to wishy washy. The GFS has the right idea but way overdone. Somewhere in the middle - light rain to 4-6 hours of freezing rain/sleet  then to wet snow for the LV.  Very typical scenario for an "Ohio Valley Flyer" storm event. Usual results -- is a 4-6 inch snow event for us- higher snow accumulations near the Williamsport area . I also call this "salt drainer storm event" as municipal salt supplies can take a hell of a hit in a hurry for road treatment, especially if the cold hits hard afterwards.  This upcoming pattern definitely reminds me of 1994 when I drove on snow/ice rutted roads for a week  to work.  I remember 222 / Hamilton Blvd was a complete mess where you actually had to drive along the curbs to find snow to drive on when you came to the intersections to stop as the rest of the intersection was packed down and rutted ice.  The snow drought areas of Ohio should do well on this event too.

 

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3 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

I posted this yesterday in the philly forum FWIW. I see no changes to my initial thoughts after the 12Z runs for the LV/Berks area.

 

I would not trust the Euro right now- to wishy washy. The GFS has the right idea but way overdone. Somewhere in the middle - light rain to 4-6 hours of freezing rain/sleet  then to wet snow for the LV.  Very typical scenario for an "Ohio Valley Flyer" storm event. Usual results -- is a 4-6 inch snow event for us- higher snow accumulations near the Williamsport area . I also call this "salt drainer storm event" as municipal salt supplies can take a hell of a hit in a hurry for road treatment, especially if the cold hits hard afterwards.  This upcoming pattern definitely reminds me of 1994 when I drove on snow/ice rutted roads for a week  to work.  I remember 222 / Hamilton Blvd was a complete mess where you actually had to drive along the curbs to find snow to drive on when you came to the intersections to stop as the rest of the intersection was packed down and rutted ice.  The snow drought areas of Ohio should do well on this event too.

 

hope your right both models look dry after the Sunday event.

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