paweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Add CMC to the steppin backwards camp.... GFS and NAM both stepped forward, and hoping for the win. CMC is never right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, paweather said: CMC is never right It's the North American JMA or whatever that garbage model is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Nothing is worse than the navy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Nothing is worse than the navy The "wronggaps" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Here are the two maps with the sleet removed. The event goes beyond hour 96 and that is the 12-hour period where the storm ends as snow:.. First Storm: This map implies that the majority of the event for lsv is sleet, ending as snow before 12z Saturday (when compared to the TT map that includes sleet) And here is the second storm (by itself, without first storm): and finally, here they both are combined... and combined zoomed in for PA... If it plays out like this, it's a real winner (even for most of Lanco!) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Here are the two maps with the sleet removed. The event goes beyond hour 96 and that is the 12-hour period where the storm ends as snow:.. First Storm: This map implies that the majority of the event for lsv is sleet, ending as snow before 12z Saturday (when compared to the TT map that includes sleet) And here is the second storm (by itself, without first storm): and finally, here they both are combined... and combined zoomed in for PA... If it plays out like this, it's a real winner (even for most of Lanco!) Looks real good thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 31 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I'm going to need February to be calm in the end. I'm about to foul the Earth with a carbon copy and don't need to be white knuckle driving up and down 322 to Mount Nittany for a week. I know this is me pouring a bucket of hot piss on your wants of 12 feet of snow, but y'all can suck me lol. Early February, Super Bowl Sunday aside? Snow. All of March? Snow. Late February? Suck. Me. Edit: Hey Sauss, did you read that in John Candy's voice? Now you know how I feel being a tractor trailer driver. Snow is not really my friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Here’s the NOHRSC snowfall for the season to date, which comes with a legend and numbers. Pretty sure this is an estimate derived from model analysis/satellite so the individual numbers at stations might not be what’s officially reported. It’s usually in the ballpark though. Can you provide a link to that?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I decided to get the maps for the entire run and lsv improves a fair amount...but look at what happens to the north and western PA... First map is 10:1 And then take a look at Kuchera (lsv doesn't improve but boy does north and west...Even look at Pittsburgh!! It's like a snow bomb goes off (but misses the LSV because of storm 1). Tracking should be pretty exciting this week for sure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I decided to get the maps for the entire run and lsv improves a fair amount...but look at what happens to the north and western PA... First map is 10:1 And then take a look at Kuchera (lsv doesn't improve but boy does north and west...Even look at Pittsburgh!! It's like a snow bomb goes off (but misses the LSV because of storm 1). Tracking should be pretty exciting this week for sure!That would also give Boston another 42” of snow to add to there 37” January. That 79” would be too 10 all time with March to go. They only had 0.4” in November and December. Also it would add 23” to there snowpack as a positive change from today. Nothing like having a 36”+ snowpack in the middle of February. Although unless March and April blowup they aren’t touching there 108.9” record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro appears to be a rainstorm for most everyone here. It’s a upstate NY crusher. Extreme northern PA gets some zr/sleet. Super amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Euro is a rainstorm for most everyone here. It’s a upstate NY crusher. Extreme northern PA gets some zr/sleet. Yep and we will see how it does with #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, canderson said: Euro appears to be a rainstorm for most everyone here. It’s a upstate NY crusher. Extreme northern PA gets some zr/sleet. Super amped. But it did come south a bit, and joins camp w/ GFS and NAM. Snow maps show a tick SE and now has KPIT and Wspt now getting some frozen. 0z was extreme northern tier and NW PA event. Based on last few events, GFS seemed to lead the way, so I'm gonna hug it, till something better (not hotter) comes along. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro wants nothing to do with storm 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 14 minutes ago, paweather said: Euro wants nothing to do with storm 2. 0z 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Who is Mark Margavage Weather discussion page? Someone sent me a screen shot of something he has on Facebook about giving advanced warning for ice and snow storm and not to wait for local news to change their tune to prepare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Upstate NY special. It’s been in the hairs for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Who is Mark Margavage Weather discussion page? Someone sent me a screen shot of something he has on Facebook about giving advanced warning for ice and snow storm and not to wait for local news to change their tune to prepare His Twitter account shows him living and dying on every individual model run. So he’s just another rando who likes weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, canderson said: His Twitter account shows him livid and dying in even individual model run. So he’s just another rando who likes weather. And his "Weather Discussion" is a Facebook page so count me out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Forecast high was 32. Currently 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, pasnownut said: 0z 12z Yep I am staying with the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Fun with the model runs. Few of them was pretty solid hits for the whole state. Give me GFS and Nam. Euro hasn’t been real consistent with the others. -2 degrees this morning . Currently at 30 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 As @AllWeather posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, paweather5 said: As @AllWeather posted. Just terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Late week forecast is LOL. We never win these "flush out warm air in time for a good snow" events. Thursday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Night Rain. Low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 1pm, then a chance of snow and sleet between 1pm and 3pm, then a chance of snow after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Late week forecast is LOL. We never win these "flush out warm air in time for a good snow" events. Thursday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Night Rain. Low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 1pm, then a chance of snow and sleet between 1pm and 3pm, then a chance of snow after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. My forecast for Friday is rain and 52. Obviously, they are already forecasting quite a gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, canderson said: Late week forecast is LOL. We never win these "flush out warm air in time for a good snow" events. Thursday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Night Rain. Low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 1pm, then a chance of snow and sleet between 1pm and 3pm, then a chance of snow after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Yeah pretty much no snow. We need to hope for storm 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Yeah pretty much no snow. We need to hope for storm 2. Storm 1 is not a lost cause. It’s Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, anotherman said: Storm 1 is not a lost cause. It’s Monday. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, anotherman said: Storm 1 is not a lost cause. It’s Monday. Not officially but these transient events hardly ever - ever - work out for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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