Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[canderson]

Scratch that we have a coating 

[Itstrainingtime]

Snowing and accumulating on all surfaces here. 30.6

[anotherman]

Snowing and accumulating on all surfaces here. 30.6

The roads here are pretty bad. Everything is coated.

[MAG5035]

Some additional thoughts going forward… I wouldn’t completely sleep on the next bigger weather system slated late next week being just a straight up big warm up and rainmaker… especially in the more interior portions of C-PA but even region-wide too.

First feature of note is mid-week a pretty strong low is slated to track well north of the Lakes and tries to drag a frontal boundary which is likely what the main system will run on. Euro seems more concise with one main wave and GFS a bit drawn out with an additional wave running that eventually pulls the cold boundary and turns a lot of C-PA to ice and frozen just prior to fresh arctic air blasting into PA . There’s also a lot of cold and high pressure on the playing field. While main focus in terms of the strongest high presses cold more into the Central/Mountain West US via a western trough that briefly develops in the western US.. there is half decent high pressure present modeled to our north. Given the range, the globals don’t generally see the CAD as well so there’s the possibility of a messy front end of the event. Most of interior C-PA has an established pack too. The low tracks are pretty close too, really. The 18z GFS for instance takes the eventual main surface low thru PA while the 12z Euro was up into the Lower Lakes and then up the St Lawrence. Timing and progression are going to be important…wouldn’t take too much in what has been a progressive winter for this to be more progressive and suddenly have us more on the better side of the low. The GEFS currently presents a plethora of p-types (at various timing differences) across all of PA. So I’ll be keeping an eye on that since this is still in the 5-7 day range. With all that said, we are going to experience a moderating trend mid week next week (mainly Tues-Thur timeframe). 

Getting further into February, I really don’t see any reason to not have more chances at snow, even though we may have more changeable weather (ups and downs). We’ll continue to go as the Pac goes as the NAO/AO has generally been positive and continues to stay that way.The AO does dip negative for a time later next week, but generally speaking we don’t have an established blocking pattern in that realm. The big keys are the continued -WPO and neutral to negative EPO maintaining that Pac ridge and continuing to provide a cold source region that will continue to push cold air into the CONUS. I was watching the PNA as it is going to go negative some next week, which is why we moderate as ridging builds in the East. This is gonna be nowhere near the magnitude of the -PNA in December and it is forecast to quickly go back into positive territory some. 

The other thing I’m watching is the MJO. It is currently in the null phase (circle of death, etc).. basically right now it’s in a position where it’s not exerting a significant influence into the Mid-Latitudes. Which is fine.. the ECMWF pretty much keeps it there indefinitely. The JMA and NCEP stuff eventually get it into phase 3 (still a cold phase) and the NCEP spaghetti plot does show some potential of this to perhaps eventually run into 4 and so forth. With the other regular teleconnections staying pretty serviceable for now (esp on the Pac side) the only thing I really worry about is a new stronger MJO pulse running the 4-5-6 gauntlet… especially in a full blown mature Nina. Something like that would obviously likely ensure our overall chances of winter weather are much lower during such a period. Fortunately, A. That’s not really showing currently, just a concern of mine and B. Even if this were to start showing say within the next 6-10 days it would be probably be after mid Feb before we saw any sensible pattern changes. So going forward, yea we’re not going to win all the storms and probably warm up here and there.. but there remains plenty of cold in the pattern and plenty of chances down the road at least the next couple weeks, IMO. 

[MAG5035]

Finally back into some snow falling, and this snow globe has bigger flakes this time lol. Should have some better luck accumulating if this patchy snow sticks around for a bit. Surfaces like the cars and the deck were frozen back over by dusk and temp is back down to 26.6ºF.

[Blizzard of 93]

Light snow is picking up intensity in Marysville.

[Blizzard of 93]

Decent area of light snow seems to be filling in to the west of Harrisburg through the LSV.

[Cashtown_Coop]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Decent area of light snow seems to be filling in to the west of Harrisburg through the LSV.

Just looked outside.   Rates are better.   Estimating around 1” 

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Just looked outside.   Rates are better.   Estimating around 1” 

Not quite half of that here, but the little snow we do have has made the roads a mess. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Steady light snow continues in Marysville continues at a moderate rate.

Temp 28

Eye balling about .5 of an inch of new snow so far.

[DDweatherman]

53 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Just looked outside.   Rates are better.   Estimating around 1” 

Actually doing pretty well here, and roads are a mess. Steady snow coming down. South mountain enhancement?

 

[paweather]

Moderate snow 28

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

You know what’s depressing?? Seeing all of that heavy snow falling on the Atlantic

[paweather]

Just now, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

You know what’s depressing?? Seeing all of that heavy snow falling on the Atlantic

At least we got some mod snow 

[Itstrainingtime]

Jealous of the moderate snow reports - nothing remotely close to that here. VERY light snow (pixie dust really) that would take hours to get to 1". 

[KPITSnow]

Man, those NAM runs really have to give some major pause to the NYC area. It is a razors edge between 18 inches and 4 inches. Philly on those 0z runs is basically an advisory level event.  The HRR on the other hand still puts over a foot in NYC and 8-10 inches in Philly.

 

[CarlislePaWx]

30 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Steady light snow continues in Marysville continues at a moderate rate.

Temp 28

Eye balling about .5 of an inch of new snow so far.

Hey hey...I had given up on even checking for anything since the most recent model updates gave me primarily 0".  Turns out it is snowing at least lightly and most likely was moderate for a time because I now have a whopping 0.3" of new snow on the board.  It has coated everything except for my driveway (so far).  Temp has been dropping very slowly and is now down to 27.5 degrees.  This new snow plus the 0.1" I had early this morning brings my daily total thus far to 0.4".  I hope a little more can fall so everything stays white even with the sun if the high temp tomorrow is only 20 degrees with wind.  Glad to see most of us are seeing/reporting coatings.  We'll take what we can get, right?

[canderson]

Still snowing.  Prob have an inch or tad more for the day. I was totally wrong in this one.  

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Still snowing.  Prob have an inch or tad more for the day. I was totally wrong in this one.  

Me too! 

[DDweatherman]

With what’s on the grass, closer to 1.5-2” here today. Steady snow has been going since 6PM at least 

[Cashtown_Coop]

20 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

With what’s on the grass, closer to 1.5-2” here today. Steady snow has been going since 6PM at least 

It was steady since 10a, just wasn’t accumulating with the low rates.    The more events you get under your belt this way, you’ll start to see the difference this area makes.    

[DDweatherman]

16 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

It was steady since 10a, just wasn’t accumulating with the low rates.    The more events you get under your belt this way, you’ll start to see the difference this area makes.    

Really not a bad little event in my neighborhood, overperformer 

[Cashtown_Coop]

19 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Really not a bad little event in my neighborhood, overperformer 

There’s an active rescue on one of the trails on the Ranch section of Carroll Valley. Ambulance can’t reach patient with icy roads.  It’s hard to find a flat lot or road 

[CarlislePaWx]

As of about 10:45 the snizzle has ended and the clouds are breaking and I've even seen a few stars.  So, that's it for me for this one.  No additional accumulation has occurred since my last post back around 10:00.  So recapping...0.1" with round 1 back in the wee hours this morning.  0.3" with round two this evening.  Total snowfall recorded for today will be 0.4".  I'll melt it down in the morning, if it hasn't all evaporated by then with the wind that has now begun.  Looks like 5 mph steady or so now.  Will be a lot more in the morning.  Season-to-date snowfall now is up to 12.5".  Temp continues to drop and is now down to 24.4 degrees.  I think tomorrow will likely be the coldest day for my maximum temperature this season with it forecast to barely crack 20 degrees.  So far the coldest daytime max has been 24.

[Ruin]

snowing again in harrisburg area very lightly but bigger flakes looking out side every thing looks like Diamonds 

[MAG5035]

Still some light snow blowing around here. I did reach an inch for this event. Temp 17ºF. 

[Superstorm]

Sharp cutoff.




.

[Festus]

My official observation so far would be “not much”.  Maybe an inch but tough to tell with the wind.

If we calculate Total Forum Storm Accumulation / Total Forum Storm Posts, I think this has to be one of the lowest ratios ever.  

As Mag said, still a ways to go so here’s hoping.

[Voyager]

3 hours ago, Superstorm said:

Sharp cutoff.




.

 

[Bubbler86]

Looks like the real heavy band of snow set up in central and South Jersey.  Should be some 12 plus inche reports there.  Not 40 but 12 plus.  Lol.