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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Admittedly, I didn't look at guidance myself for their area and was going more on perception from their thread and others. It "seemed" like they were expecting a top 3 storm all time, but feelings can't really be quantified. LOL

That is what is weird to me, the perception.   The modeling showing extreme amounts was down to the EC and one of the Nam's this AM and the Nam was lost this morning on the 12Z run.  

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23 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Okay, that makes sense now. I was going to say, there has been a crap ton of those maps that have shown SE NE getting 30-50" of snow the past few days. I didn't realize that other 12z guidance today was tamed down from that. 

PS, maybe you need to send them your very funny Euro prayer from this AM.  They may not have received the memo on the Euro's big snow performance this year, 

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After peaking about 90 minutes ago at 36.0 degrees, the temp has slowly been dropping back, now at 33.6.  During this entire time white drizzle has been falling with various intensities.  I've decided to give ratings to these white drizzle intensities using light, moderate, and heavy.  Even heavy would take several hours to accumulate 0.1" with a temp no higher than 32.

So, with that having been said it is currently white drizzling lightly.  Lightly probably makes up 60% of all the snow that has fallen so far today with about 20% moderate and 20% heavy.  As I gaze upon my snowboard, alas, it is bare.  I am hoping to at least reach 0.3" in order to call this a victory.

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40 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

At 2:50pm I am happy to report that the white drizzle has become heavy enough to cross over into light snow.  The temp has risen back up to 34.0, so no accumulations yet.  Rest assured, I'll be back later to update everyone when my board officially records 0.1".

I call it Snizzle. 

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Well I’d call it a snow globe out there since late this morning but I’d probably end up returning the snow globe for one that has bigger flakes in it. It’s been mostly a steady light pixie dust with temps steady around 28ºF.

With the fine snow and light rates, the little bit of solar insulation there was has been enough to keep accums off of every non-snow surface except the glass table on my deck and my snowboard… which both somehow have about a half inch of new snow. At least it’s accumulating where it counts (on the snowpack) haha. 

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22 minutes ago, dcfox1 said:

I call it Snizzle. 

Thanks.  I actually thought/remembered that after the post.  I have heard that word used before, and will use it myself in the future.  BTW, it continues to snow lightly, though with flake size increasing just a tiny bit.  Temp down to 32.4 so I expect my snowboard to begin turning white in the next hour, assuming the snow continues...lol.

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Radar is showing that the returns in southern PA are collapsing south into MD/VA. Some SN+ obs coming from the DC area now, but it's not moving our way. In fact, the sun has returned here. 

Also - Kyle Elliott released a video today - he's thinking that Boston has an excellent shot at breaking their all time record for a single storm. Record is 27.6" which is far lower than I would have thought. 

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Radar is showing that the returns in southern PA are collapsing south into MD/VA. Some SN+ obs coming from the DC area now, but it's not moving our way. In fact, the sun has returned here. 
Also - Kyle Elliott released a video today - he's thinking that Boston has an excellent shot at breaking their all time record for a single storm. Record is 27.6" which is far lower than I would have thought. 

I noticed the same thing. Whereas before they were moving northeast, now they’re moving southeast.
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1 hour ago, paweather said:

Was this storm ever a hit on the models here?

There were a couple scattershot runs in the 8-10 day range that got us maybe, otherwise this thing was a non-event even in most of New England until inside D5 when it finally started phasing into a bigger storm on all guidance. Then once it was seen consistently everything with the coastal was mostly 95 corridor east. As I mentioned multiple times the last few days this northern branch system and frontal wave pressing to phase in was the key to us seeing at least widespread snowfall… which we do have but just not the rates. We rarely do well when the coastal doesn’t start organizing in earnest til it’s off the NC/SC coast (well off it in this case). This needed to start happening in the SE US/Gulf region. 

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