Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, paweather said: Boston still gets clubber. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 This feels like a March snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: True. I would take it for sure but they want the 3' Let's be completely honest here - if you woke up with CTP forecasting 30-40" for you, and saw it was reduced to 12-18" a few hours later...I think you'd not be on the "I would take it for sure" campaign. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Let's be completely honest here - if you woke up with CTP forecasting 30-40" for you, and saw it was reduced to 12-18" a few hours later...I think you'd not be on the "I would take it for sure" campaign. Maybe LOL but snow is snow so yes I would be disappointed but knowing I am still getting a foot wouldn't make too depressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Festus said: And now to go completely off topic, you used to be maytownpawx. Did you lose a bet or something? Sorry I'm new here and don't know the story. "Itstrainingtime" I am a HUGE steam train fan I do a lot of regulatory compliance and personal development training at work It's also a nod to "training" storms I combined 3 passions that all had synergy in one name. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Let's be completely honest here - if you woke up with CTP forecasting 30-40" for you, and saw it was reduced to 12-18" a few hours later...I think you'd not be on the "I would take it for sure" campaign. Until the HRRR has it, why get frustrated when the other models drop it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Bad 12z data that was a good post I read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Maybe LOL but snow is snow so yes I would be disappointed but knowing I am still getting a foot wouldn't make too depressed. Suppose the NWS predicted you’d end up with a foot of snow but you got 9” mixed with a little bit of sleet. Would you complain about it for upwards of a week? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Let's be completely honest here - if you woke up with CTP forecasting 30-40" for you, and saw it was reduced to 12-18" a few hours later...I think you'd not be on the "I would take it for sure" campaign. NWS for Boston has been in that 12-18” range. Maybe just recently bumped to 18-24”. So I think that’s just models zeroing in on reality Weenies will Weenie, but 30” to 40” was just model runs (and maybe the 10% NWS high end potential map) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: "Itstrainingtime" I am a HUGE steam train fan I do a lot of regulatory compliance and personal development training at work It's also a nod to "training" storms I combined 3 passions that all had synergy in one name. Dude, that's awesome! We had a selfie party with the 611 this past season. Holy shit, was that thing cool! Anyway, back to weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Suppose the NWS predicted you’d end up with a foot of snow but you got 9” mixed with a little bit of sleet. Would you complain about it for upwards of a week? We’ve never seen that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Burghblizz said: NWS for Boston has been in that 12-18” range. Maybe just recently bumped to 18-24”. So I think that’s just models zeroing in on reality Weenies will Weenie, but 30” to 40” was just model runs (and maybe the 10% NWS high end potential map) Yea, I am a little lost here. Have not been paying attention as much as in the past, but no 12Z model that I just ran through had anyone over 20" unless I missed it. Why is the Euro showing the same cause for a blow up? I saw some crazy Nam runs at one point, before today, but did anyone really think Tom's River was getting 40"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Burghblizz said: NWS for Boston has been in that 12-18” range. Maybe just recently bumped to 18-24”. So I think that’s just models zeroing in on reality Weenies will Weenie, but 30” to 40” was just model runs (and maybe the 10% NWS high end potential map) Right now their official forecast for Boston is 23”, with a “low end amount” of 12.2”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Burghblizz said: We’ve never seen that Yeah, a little oddly specific scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Festus said: Dude, that's awesome! We had a selfie party with the 611 this past season. Holy shit, was that thing cool! Anyway, back to weather. (I shouldn't admit this because not many would get it...but I have had an annual pass to Strasburg in the past. I was a part of more than one 611 excursion) Yes, the weather. It's 33 with white rain. At least my expectations were pretty close to what I see outside, which was nothing. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Kinda nice in a way to have no skin in the game. I get the “I’d take 10 in a heartbeat” sentiment, but if Euro takes 12+ away from me right before game time I’d be a mess! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, I am a little lost here. Have not been paying attention as much as in the past, but no 12Z model that I just ran through had anyone over 20" unless I missed it. Why is the Euro showing the same cause for a blow up? I saw some crazy Nam runs at one point, before today, but did anyone really think Tom's River was getting 40"? I guess I'm wrong. I thought earlier Euro runs (and a few others as well) were well over 30" in eastern Mass. If I spoke in error, I apologize. I've been reading for the past 36 hours that New England was preparing for a top 3 storm, which 12-18" most certainly would not be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Suppose the NWS predicted you’d end up with a foot of snow but you got 9” mixed with a little bit of sleet. Would you complain about it for upwards of a week? ZILCH not I wouldn't at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6z Euro this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Euro 0z this morning: (That's over 45" there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 57 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Sometime we have to meet. For sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: "Itstrainingtime" I am a HUGE steam train fan I do a lot of regulatory compliance and personal development training at work It's also a nod to "training" storms I combined 3 passions that all had synergy in one name. For your bolded, I give you this. It's up in my neck of the woods, but something to consider. As a bonus, you get to ride through Tamaqua...lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I guess I'm wrong. I thought earlier Euro runs (and a few others as well) were well over 30" in eastern Mass. If I spoke in error, I apologize. I've been reading for the past 36 hours that New England was preparing for a top 3 storm, which 12-18" most certainly would not be. I was not thinking anyone was wrong but no 12Z run had anything like the previous Euro was showing so I would have expected them to assume the worst was coming and the Euro was going to Cave. Was more questioning the weenies in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Didn’t expect to see the sun today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I was not thinking anyone was wrong but no 12Z run had anything like the previous Euro was showing so I would have expected them to assume the worst was coming and the Euro was going to Cave. Was more questioning the weenies in NE. Okay, that makes sense now. I was going to say, there has been a crap ton of those maps that have shown SE NE getting 30-50" of snow the past few days. I didn't realize that other 12z guidance today was tamed down from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Okay, that makes sense now. I was going to say, there has been a crap ton of those maps that have shown SE NE getting 30-50" of snow the past few days. I didn't realize that other 12z guidance today was tamed down from that. Other than the Euro and the 12K Nam, there was no normally used 0Z guidance that showed it either. 0Z HRRR, 3K Nam, GFS, CMC, UK, RGEM were all maxed out in the 15-16" area if I saw it right. If we had been in play there would have been lots of 'Can the Euro pull a miracle" posts since most guidance was more more in that 12-18 area. So I was just confused if they were portraying it as a bust as the bust would have been IF they got the 30+" IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The 12Z GFS has the LSV as the epicenter of a dessert surrounded by lush snow beds. Here are the hr 240/384 QPF/Snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Other than the Euro and the 12K Nam, there was no normally used 0Z guidance that showed it either. 0Z HRRR, 3K Nam, GFS, CMC, UK, RGEM were all maxed out in the 15-16" area if I saw it right. If we had been in play there would have been lots of 'Can the Euro pull a miracle" posts since most guidance was more more in that 12-18 area. So I was just confused if they were portraying it as a bust as the bust would have been IF they got the 30+" IMO. Admittedly, I didn't look at guidance myself for their area and was going more on perception from their thread and others. It "seemed" like they were expecting a top 3 storm all time, but feelings can't really be quantified. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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