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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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Here are CTP’s forecast discussion thoughts this evening:

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave energy dropping out of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
Friday morning will phase with southern stream energy moving
through the Southern Plains into the Deep South Friday
afternoon/night. 500mb height falls combined with increased
moisture/lift should yield light snow across most of CPA
Friday. While some of the hires ensemble guidance was trending
bearish in terms of snowfall potential, there is enough support
from the global guidance |particularly the 27/12Z ECMWF| to
increase POPs by 20-40% over previous fcst based on what we
expect to be a very light, but measurable snowfall (0.1-0.5")
on Friday into Friday night.

Model QPFs and associated snowfall pivot and shift south and
east into Saturday morning as the coastal storm intensifies and
lifts north off the Mid Atlantic coast. Areas along/south of the
PA Turnpike and I-81 corridor will see the highest probs for
accumulating snow late Friday night through Saturday morning
with the main axis of snow shifting toward the I95 corridor.

Updated storm total snowfall ending 00Z Sunday shows a tight
gradient along I95 trending lower farther to the north/west.
The latest snowfall fcst has remained consistent in showing
1-2" east of the US-15/I-81 corridor with max amounts around
3" in far southeast Lancaster County.

 

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30 minutes ago, canderson said:

18z Euro unburied the entire eastern half of Massachusetts with 30”+.  Peak is 39”. 

What do you mean by "unburied"?  Don't you mean "buried"?

I found a small area with even more than 39"...if you look at the lighter colored oval immediately to the right of the "r" in Worcester, that oval is 41".

snku_acc.us_state_ne_s.png

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Well looks like the 3k NAM is a good bit more aligned with the 12k in terms of delivering 30+ to a large portion of SNE now, so there’s that lol. Taunton has to be considering blizzard warnings for eastern Mass. I’d say some place in and around that NWS office or generally in between Boston metro and Cape Cod inland of the coast somewhere would be a great place for anyone wanting to do a snow chase. There’s going to be monster rates/ratios under any meso bands there. 

Main difference back our way is the models are starting to go back towards solidifying the initial snowfall breaking out across PA, and a couple like the RGEM are getting the back edge of the actual deform shield from the coastal low into the fringes of the Sus Valley. That was my original vision of how to make this system work for us or least the majority of us since most live the Sus Valley in this forum. Having a decent WAA wave of snow from the northern system phasing in and transitioning some right into the some of the deform when the coastal explodes. 

 

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That 0z Euro run that just dropped has to be one of the most insane runs the southern New England folks have ever seen. The low passes just a hair outside the benchmark and tucks right into the Gulf of Maine. 

And I’m sitting here just hoping tomorrow I get 1/42nd of what Boston has on that Kuchera map lol. 

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