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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Noted. For you to be criticizing the CMC it has to be pretty bad.

The little I have looked lately, it seems the CMC always stirs up hope in the MR, when others are not showing anything, but then the hope goes away and its forgotten.  Maybe just a personal impression though as I have been stepping away a bit. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

The little I have looked lately, it seems the CMC always stirs up hope in the MR, when others are not showing anything, but then the hope goes away and its forgotten.  Maybe just a personal impression though as I have been stepping away a bit. 

GFS had that storm on the 0z run and has carried it on the following runs. I would never put any stock in something that was only at hour 240 of the CMC.

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2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Screenshot_20220127-141430_Facebook.jpg

That’s gotta be the most confusing start time map I’ve ever seen. The SE quarter of PA got 4/5 start times criss crossing and whatever snow develops there tomorrow is gonna be starting way earlier than all of them lol. 

I really haven’t been a big fan of this storm threat in our region and just figures that it came back west enough a couple days ago to have to acknowledge the possibility. Although, I felt that the best chance of success was going to hinge on the developing wave of snow with the northern system and frontal boundary and if the storm phased early enough that the coastal wave could keep snow going for a time in the Sus Valley and eastern PA and provide a respectable event. The now presumed later explosive development of the coastal mostly takes that away and we’re left mainly with what the initial wave of snow can do, which will be during the day tomorrow. I’ll note that I’m not going to rule out York/Lancaster (and far eastern PA) catching some of the deform shield from the coastal.

At any rate…. Initially the SW flow makes for the downsloping shadow east of the mountains seen on the higher res models but eventually precipitation does generate further east in PA as the coastal low starts taking shape and you start getting some easterly flow. So there will be flakes to be had probably for most of us late tonight thru tomorrow (west to east) but big question will be how much it will amount to. Models like the 3k NAM, RGEM, and the HRRR do show something, with the RGEM being the best showing a more widespread 1-2” with a bit more in York/Lancaster since it’s been pretty far inside with the coastal. So a general light snowfall is still on the table, but we’ll see how well this northern branch system does. There’s already precip in western PA from it and I’m about to get some echoes overhead (though I’m dry with a 28ºF temp and 9ºF dewpoint)

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