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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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21 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

GFS is a closer miss....

:P

2 things on the GFS:

  • At least the 3rd run in a row that it nudged west. We need some bigger nudges soon. :)
  • GFS also has that double barrel low feature out in the Atlantic. Read some discussion on convective feedback issues - not sure what it means if it will mean anything at all. Just noting what I saw. 
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11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

2 things on the GFS:

  • At least the 3rd run in a row that it nudged west. We need some bigger nudges soon. :)
  • GFS also has that double barrel low feature out in the Atlantic. Read some discussion on convective feedback issues - not sure what it means if it will mean anything at all. Just noting what I saw. 

When the bolded is brought up it's always a sure-fire sign that we're getting desperate :lol:

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4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

When the bolded is brought up it's always a sure-fire sign that we're getting desperate :lol:

First time I heard that was Christmas Eve, 2010. That's when every model known to mankind suddenly jumped several hundred miles west with the Boxing Day storm. People were going nuts and calling out the NWS, who I believe responded with the Convective Feedback issue. 

Unfortunately for us, those models that all came back west, came about 75 miles too far west, and that was what did us in locally. 

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3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The thing I’ve been noticing lately is next week doesn’t look like a decisive pattern shift at all, there might be good opportunities in Feb. if the pattern reloads.

 

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Low is right on the coast line 

Very encouraging - some thought that this weekend was our last great chance of the season. Certainly appears that we have more opportunities ahead. That'll lesson the sting of watching VA Beach triple our seasonal total this weekend. :lol:

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11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Very encouraging - some thought that this weekend was our last great chance of the season. Certainly appears that we have more opportunities ahead. That'll lesson the sting of watching VA Beach triple our seasonal total this weekend. :lol:

Position of the ridge will be key to how that part of the pattern plays out. Certainly doesn’t look like Feb will be as cold as Jan but we knew that already.

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57 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Yay, a half inch to an inch and a half. Just enough to keep shitting up the roads and make a sloppy mess. It's not worth it, and I'd rather just stay high and dry...

I'm guessing you have snow cover.....

Some of us don't and will take their 1.5 and like it.....or not.;)

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41 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The thing I’ve been noticing lately is next week doesn’t look like a decisive pattern shift at all, there might be good opportunities in Feb. if the pattern reloads.

Bringing the boundary closer to PA (in this large scale regime) might be the way to getting the goods.  Just need that 540 to stay below (as currently depicted) and we might be fighting over who gets the most.  

 

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24 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm guessing you have snow cover.....

Some of us don't and will take their 1.5 and like it.....or not.;)

I do (about an inch or so) but I'm ready for a thaw to get rid of it. Too much ice mixed in with it from the freezing rain events. My wife almost fell a few times.

I did notice that Lancaster had no snow this morning. 

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