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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

Bubbler86

By Bubbler86,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Superstorm

Superstorm

Posted
Posted

I lost my interest when the WAA snows waned, and it became only a coastal storm.

Progressive flow, no blocking and not so ideal western ridge location spelled the doom for this.

New England still in game because they are so far east. That’s why they can do ok in La Niña winters. We need at least some pseudo blocking to get us in the game.


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MAG5035
MAG5035

We can debate how far into PA the warm air aloft punches but I simply do not buy the NAM’s expansive freezing rain.    This isn’t really a setup for a deep swath of ice IMO, the high moves east as thi

MAG5035
MAG5035

Some updated thoughts on the pattern. The quoted above was the large post I made back on Jan 28th for reference and review. First off that was at the time, in the 5-7 day range of what was for most in

stormtracker
stormtracker

Seems as tho the thread was accidentally deleted by the author...ahem @Bubbler86    Anyway, I restored it and merged

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

I lost my interest when the WAA snows waned, and it became only a coastal storm.

Progressive flow, no blocking and not so ideal western ridge location spelled the doom for this.

New England still in game because they are so far east. That’s why they can do ok in La Niña winters. We need at least some pseudo blocking to get us in the game.


.

The flow and lack of block were/are killers. Ironically, the ridge is positioned pretty close to where we want it - but your previous 2 points overcame that. 

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

LOL.  Euro doesn't want to surrender!  Doesn't mean much for us but places to the east have a huge difference right now between Euro and pretty much every other model.

I’m just hoping at this point that we get back the 2 to 4 inches of snow from the northern stream low along the Arctic front on Friday that most models had for us earlier in the week.

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted

It really would not take much to get the LSV back into a solid Advisory level storm.

A few tweaks here & there with the phasing and timing of the pieces and this could have been a blockbuster storm even around here. But, as others have said, some form of blocking would have helped the overall chances for much more in our region.


Plenty of time to fully throw in the towel tomorrow night or Friday am if needed.

 

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Ruin said:

We need to start holding the national weather service accountable yeah this is going to be slightly ranty. But think about it logically for a minute how often are the models actually write and I'm not just talking about three or four days out I'm talking about the day before storm. I swear to God models were more accurate before all these upgrades in 2000 and 2005 or so models I would say 50/50 would get it right now it's like every single storm they show even the day before we're supposed to get it oh all of a sudden all models show it's going to jog 150 to 200 miles east. Does anyone have an actual percentage of what they're right about I mean to show Pennsylvania from Central to East and most of Maryland having 48 or 12 in and then all of a sudden now nothing every single model shifted from a slightly Coast hugger now to out the sea in a way. I mean think about it for a second if we were wrong that much at our jobs you would have been fired lol

Models have shown this being a coastal scrapper for days now. Of course there's wobbles but the gfs has been pretty darn good for the most part.

Same as last weekends storm. Models picked up on that crazy NW track that changed over many to mix/rain 5 days out! 

Models are by far better than what they were 20 years ago.

Unfortunately there will Probably never be another reverse bust like there was in January 2000. :lol:

 

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted

Here are CTP’s forecast discussion thoughts tonight. 

Shortwave energy dropping out of the Great Lakes
Friday morning will attempt to phase with southern stream energy
moving through the Southern Plains into the Deep South Friday
afternoon/night. 500mb height falls combined with increased
moisture/lift should yield a bit of light snow or flurries
across most of CPA Friday evening into early Friday night. Model
QPFs and associated snowfall pivot and shift south and east
into Saturday morning as the coastal storm intensifies and lifts
north off the Mid Atlantic coast. Areas along/south of the PA
Turnpike and I-81 corridor will see the highest probs for
accumulating snow Friday night into Saturday morning with the
main axis of wintry precip shifting toward the I95 corridor.

Storm total snowfall ending 00Z Sunday shows a tight gradient
along I95 trending lower farther to the west. The south/east
parts of York and Lancaster County are forecast to receive the
heaviest snow at this time with amounts in the 1-3/2-4" range.
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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
Posted

Well, I'm going with the model that gave me, cash, and bubbler the winning prize of 0.2" for the entire event.  I really can't get over the Euro hanging on while all others have abandoned ship...lol...get that?

Meanwhile, I will enjoy the possibility of coming close to or maybe even exceeding my lowest temperature of this season tonight.  Coldest minimum so far was -0.6 degrees back over the weekend.  Currently I'm at 8.6 degrees and dropping.  This is the earliest in the night I've reached single digits.  So, my anticipation for morning is close to zero again or perhaps -1 or even -2.  My amazing ice-encrusted 11-day old snowpack is still going strong at 2".  I cannot see any grass yet (in my back yard, which faces north.)  My small front yard only has a few spots left with more than a trace there.  Fortunately, I have a large picture window facing out back which provides me with ample opportunities to be reminded that it is still winter, and we are very close to our climatological bottom for daily average temps. .

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

Bouncing between +1-2ºF so far here in town. Already several meso stations below zero up and down the 99 corridor again much like last Friday Night. There’s a -6ºF near Claysburg (south of Altoona) and a -8ºF near Stormstown (just west of State College). 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Hey @Blizzard of 93!

Look what we have to look forward to after our rain storm next week!  This is Day 9-10 where it appears there is a battle going on between the arctic trying to come back in while fighting off the southeast ridge...

 

Yea the 0z GFS really lined em up in it’s long range. I saw like two other events after that one. I’ve had thoughts about the pattern coming up but had been waiting to get much into it til we saw what this coastal was gonna do. I’ll probably elaborate more tomorrow but generally I think that while this pattern is going to shuffle around next week and give us what looks to be a 2-3 day warmup,  I believe at least for now we’ll maintain a regime that’s going to give us chances through at least the first couple weeks of Feb.

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea the 0z GFS really lined em up in it’s long range. I saw like two other events after that one. I’ve had thoughts about the pattern coming up but had been waiting to get much into it til we saw what this coastal was gonna do. I’ll probably elaborate more tomorrow but generally I think that while this pattern is going to shuffle around next week and give us what looks to be a 2-3 day warmup,  I believe at least for now we’ll maintain a regime that’s going to give us chances through at least the first couple weeks of Feb.

Thanks, @MAG5035.  The run was only up to around 270 when I went to post just that one storm.  I went back in to see the rest and it certainly does look nice.  Here are several snow maps for the entire 0Z run using Kuchera:

First the national map:

snku_acc.conus.png

Next, the northeast regional:

snku_acc.us_ne.png

And finally, our state:

snku_acc.us_state_pa.png

 

It looks like roughly 80% of PA has over 24" for the 384 hours.  A few other notables were the following states which had almost 100% coverage of 24"+.  Those states were West Virginia, New York, Vermont, Maine and New Hampshire.  Finally, go look down at Alabama which has roughly 50% coverage of 6"+, and Mississippi which has about 20-25% coverage of 3"+.  Pretty amazing.  Of course I know much of this will change in just a few hours.  But, it at least takes a bit of the sting out of our coastal calamity, and also shows that a more permanent pattern of warmth in the East may very well be still more than 2 weeks away.

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Festus

Festus

Posted
Posted

Priceless AFD from Mount Holly.  So you want to be an NWS forecaster...uh, well, 

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
...Major winter storm possible for much of the region Friday
night and Saturday...

It has been a live-or-die-by-every-model-timestep sort of night here
at the office. And what the models give, they also take away, which
basically describes the model variability we have seen the past
couple of days with the potential winter storm for our region Friday
night and Saturday. The 00z suite has made a notable consensus shift
westward with the low tracking just off the coast, but the high
volatility/variability remains. The 00z GFS is a far-east outlier
solution and basically brings little snow to the CWA for the whole
event. Meanwhile, the 00z NAM returned the snow to our area, in a
large return of departure from the 18z NAM no-show (no-snow) event.
The 00z CMC brings a blockbuster storm to the area, with widespread
warning criteria south and east of the Fall Line; the 00z ECMWF is
only somewhat drier than its 12z predecessor run. The 00z UKMET went
sharply west, with meaningful QPF/snow for much of the area.

The model volatility with this system has been something to behold.
Such run-to-run spread is typical/expected for these types of
events, given the highly complicated interdependent phenomena
involved. However, simple analysis of the spread in the National
Blend of Models is enlightening; the 04z NBM V4.0 (V4.1) 50th
percentile storm total snow for the Philly area was around 1.5 (1)
inch(es). The 75th percentile storm total snow was around 8 (10)
inches, or roughly an order-of-magnitude difference between the
median and the upper quartile. Bottom line here: the storm total
snow forecast remains highly uncertain and subject to large changes
in subsequent forecasts.

Observation-wise, it will be critical to assess three
regions/phenomena as the event unfolds: (1) the strength/depth,
orientation, and speed of a northern-stream digging vort max through
the Midwest on Friday morning, (2) the orientation and speed of a
southern-stream vort max in the southern Plains around this same
time, and (3) the low-level response to the phasing trough near/off
the Southeast coast Friday night (e.g., the 850-mb heights and
winds). The progressive solutions have a more compact and faster
northern-stream vort max and a slower southern-stream vort max,
which results in upper low development farther east (and generally
too far east for our region to see substantive snow); the snowier
solutions acquire phasing and neutral to negative tilt of the large-
scale trough more quickly (and thus, farther west). Trends in the
low-level response are obvious Friday night -- the NAM/CMC (aside
from the errant 18z NAM simulation) are positioning the 850-mb
low/trough farther southwest. The GFS is much noisier, exhibiting
little trend. Notably, the 00z GEFS featured unusually low spread,
which makes me wholly suspicious of the deterministic and ensemble
output from its suite.

With the model camps making the GFS more and more of an outlier,
tonight`s forecast is generally a non-GFS consensus blend. This
preserves a considerable amount of continuity to fields of
importance such as PoPs, QPF, and snow amounts. The main changes
were to sharpen the gradient of snow totals near/northwest of the I-
95 corridor, with 1-3 inch totals northwest of the Fall Line, 3-6
inch totals in the urban corridor and immediately adjacent areas,
and 6-12 inch totals roughly from Easton, MD, to New Brunswick, NJ.
Again, there is enormous uncertainty with these forecast totals. If
the more progressive solutions pan out, very little snow may occur
in a large chunk of the area. If the slower/stronger solutions pan
out, heavier totals would occur at least to the Fall Line. Continue
to monitor the forecasts, as large changes may occur leading up to
the event.

Based on the forecast totals, we have issued a winter storm watch
for all of Delmarva, far southeastern Pennsylvania, and most of
central and southern New Jersey from 7 pm Friday to 7 pm Saturday.
Will fine-tune the timing once warnings/advisories are issued, but
this is the general time window of concern for our area.
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Ruin

Ruin

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Festus said:

Priceless AFD from Mount Holly.  So you want to be an NWS forecaster...uh, well, 

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
...Major winter storm possible for much of the region Friday
night and Saturday...

It has been a live-or-die-by-every-model-timestep sort of night here
at the office. And what the models give, they also take away, which
basically describes the model variability we have seen the past
couple of days with the potential winter storm for our region Friday
night and Saturday. The 00z suite has made a notable consensus shift
westward with the low tracking just off the coast, but the high
volatility/variability remains. The 00z GFS is a far-east outlier
solution and basically brings little snow to the CWA for the whole
event. Meanwhile, the 00z NAM returned the snow to our area, in a
large return of departure from the 18z NAM no-show (no-snow) event.
The 00z CMC brings a blockbuster storm to the area, with widespread
warning criteria south and east of the Fall Line; the 00z ECMWF is
only somewhat drier than its 12z predecessor run. The 00z UKMET went
sharply west, with meaningful QPF/snow for much of the area.

The model volatility with this system has been something to behold.
Such run-to-run spread is typical/expected for these types of
events, given the highly complicated interdependent phenomena
involved. However, simple analysis of the spread in the National
Blend of Models is enlightening; the 04z NBM V4.0 (V4.1) 50th
percentile storm total snow for the Philly area was around 1.5 (1)
inch(es). The 75th percentile storm total snow was around 8 (10)
inches, or roughly an order-of-magnitude difference between the
median and the upper quartile. Bottom line here: the storm total
snow forecast remains highly uncertain and subject to large changes
in subsequent forecasts.

Observation-wise, it will be critical to assess three
regions/phenomena as the event unfolds: (1) the strength/depth,
orientation, and speed of a northern-stream digging vort max through
the Midwest on Friday morning, (2) the orientation and speed of a
southern-stream vort max in the southern Plains around this same
time, and (3) the low-level response to the phasing trough near/off
the Southeast coast Friday night (e.g., the 850-mb heights and
winds). The progressive solutions have a more compact and faster
northern-stream vort max and a slower southern-stream vort max,
which results in upper low development farther east (and generally
too far east for our region to see substantive snow); the snowier
solutions acquire phasing and neutral to negative tilt of the large-
scale trough more quickly (and thus, farther west). Trends in the
low-level response are obvious Friday night -- the NAM/CMC (aside
from the errant 18z NAM simulation) are positioning the 850-mb
low/trough farther southwest. The GFS is much noisier, exhibiting
little trend. Notably, the 00z GEFS featured unusually low spread,
which makes me wholly suspicious of the deterministic and ensemble
output from its suite.

With the model camps making the GFS more and more of an outlier,
tonight`s forecast is generally a non-GFS consensus blend. This
preserves a considerable amount of continuity to fields of
importance such as PoPs, QPF, and snow amounts. The main changes
were to sharpen the gradient of snow totals near/northwest of the I-
95 corridor, with 1-3 inch totals northwest of the Fall Line, 3-6
inch totals in the urban corridor and immediately adjacent areas,
and 6-12 inch totals roughly from Easton, MD, to New Brunswick, NJ.
Again, there is enormous uncertainty with these forecast totals. If
the more progressive solutions pan out, very little snow may occur
in a large chunk of the area. If the slower/stronger solutions pan
out, heavier totals would occur at least to the Fall Line. Continue
to monitor the forecasts, as large changes may occur leading up to
the event.

Based on the forecast totals, we have issued a winter storm watch
for all of Delmarva, far southeastern Pennsylvania, and most of
central and southern New Jersey from 7 pm Friday to 7 pm Saturday.
Will fine-tune the timing once warnings/advisories are issued, but
this is the general time window of concern for our area.

any idea how far went any snow comes? reading harrisburg etc 

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