pasnownut Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 14 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Nice seeing a cluster of lows to the west of the mean. As pointed out by Blizz93, some of those are strong and close to the coast. Interesting. It sure keeps hope alive...and hope the 0z's dont buck that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Snow cut off makes no sense to me. Storm this powerful that trending more West just cuts off snow this drastic ????? Sine people are saying online claiming it's to powerful so it's compact 1 the storm is huge 2 I've seen sub ,960mb dump snow back to Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Looks ok to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 God I wish the NAM went beyond 84. We would likely all be a tad more giddy. Cuts back a bit on the NS precip, but makes up for it w/ a really nice SLP just off NC VA coast and is notably south of GFS. Verbatim it would give the coastal time to get crankin. REALLY like the look. Here's to hopin the rest of the 0z's keep this trend going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 @Itstrainingtime @Atomixwx, the Wiz just made the Sizers Clipper collapse look like Childs play. Maybe a top ten ever NBA collapse. Lost a 35 point 2nd half lead and give up 7 points in the last 8 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: God I wish the NAM went beyond 84. We would likely all be a tad more giddy. Cuts back a bit on the NS precip, but makes up for it w/ a really nice SLP just off NC VA coast and is notably south of GFS. Verbatim it would give the coastal time to get crankin. REALLY like the look. Here's to hopin the rest of the 0z's keep this trend going. Yes, very nice NAM run! More room to improve surface in time if that 500 look holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Looks ok to me Lol, that is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Looks ok to me Trough a tiny bit too far west (IMO) at 84 but also think that as depicted, the Nam precip shield should be more expansive at 84. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ruin said: Snow cut off makes no sense to me. Storm this powerful that trending more West just cuts off snow this drastic ????? Sine people are saying online claiming it's to powerful so it's compact 1 the storm is huge 2 I've seen sub ,960mb dump snow back to Ohio Guessing that's because of the arctic boundary pressing/interacting w/ coastal, and causing sharp cutoff. 500's are once again a bit more neg tilt and should help to tuck the LP closer to coast, but that boundary likely is culprit IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Ty no one said this at all hope the storm can blast the boundary apart lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Great read from ALY AFD: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Main story for the long term is a strong coastal storm that may impact the region Friday night into Saturday. At this time, there is high confidence that a storm will develop, but low confidence as to the track. While there is the potential for a major storm for somewhere in the northeast, considerable uncertainty in the storm track means that impacts to our forecast area remain uncertain as well. It is too early to estimate snowfall amounts, but will include a full analysis of current thinking and sources of uncertainty below... At 00z Saturday, long term begins with a large upper trough extending from Canada down to the Gulf Coast moving across the eastern third of the country. As this trough moves eastward Friday night and Saturday, it will become neutrally to negatively tilted, and surface cyclogenesis will take place off the U.S. east coast. As this storm tracks northeastward, it is expected to rapidly deepen, and may undergo bombogenesis (drop in central pressure of 24 mb in 24 hrs). With ample cold air in place, expecting precipitation to fall as all snow for our region. Also, it will become breezy due to a tight pressure gradient over the region, with some sources of guidance suggesting the central pressure of the storm deepens into the 960-970 mb range. Snow may begin as early as late Friday afternoon and last into Saturday night, with the highest chance for snow during the day Saturday. While confidence is high in an impactful storm somewhere along the east coast, there are several sources of uncertainty in the storm track and therefore impacts to our region. One major source of uncertainty is the degree of phasing on Friday between a northern stream disturbance diving south from Manitoba and a southern stream disturbance over Texas and New Mexico. At this time, it appears the norther stream disturbance will take a favorable track for these disturbances to phase, but there are more questions surrounding the southern stream. The GFS is stronger and further to the southwest with the souther stream disturbance, resulting in a later phase/less phasing between the two disturbances. The result is a more positively tilted and progressive upper trough and a storm track further to the east. The Euro, on the other hand, has a weaker southern stream disturbance that does not dig as far south and west. This allows the southern stream disturbance to move out ahead of the norther stream wave Friday and Friday night. The result is a more negatively tilted upper trough and a storm track further to the west. The Euro has held steady over the past few runs, while the GFS has trended towards the Euro each of the past three runs after the 18z GFS yesterday was much further east with the storm track. To add even more uncertainty to the forecast, Stony Brook Sensitivity analysis developed through CSTAR research suggests that the eventual track of the storm will also be sensitive to the strength of the upper ridge that develops downstream of the trough (as is usually the case with these large east coast storms). A stronger ridge will be associated with a storm track further to the west; this is seen in the Euro solution as well. Often, but not always, models underestimate the strength of the downstream ridge in the medium-range as they cannot resolve the diabatic ridge-building due to latent heat release. With ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, it is certainly possible that this trend will manifest itself with this storm as well. Will note at this time that both the GEFS and EPS have a subset of ensemble members tucked in closer to the coast than the operational models suggest, suggesting that a track further north and west remains possible. Finally, right entrance region of an upper jet over our region and the fact that banded snowfall on the northwestern side of major east coast cyclones often occurs further north and west than modeled, there is still the potential for a precipitation shield that extends further to the west than guidance shows. Therefore, accumulating snow is possible further west than modeled, even with the eastern storm track. Hopefully, will be able to gain more insights into possible solutions by comparing model guidance to RAOB observations over the next 24 hours as upper energy comes onshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, vortmax said: . Will note at this time that both the GEFS and EPS have a subset of ensemble members tucked in closer to the coast than the operational models suggest, suggesting that a track further north and west remains possible. Finally, right entrance region of an upper jet over our region and the fact that banded snowfall on the northwestern side of major east coast cyclones often occurs further north and west than modeled, there is still the potential for a precipitation shield that extends further to the west than guidance shows. Therefore, accumulating snow is possible further west than modeled, even with the eastern storm track. This is a fantastic discussion, but the part that I just quoted is what should keep us very much in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Don’t think this was posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 0z GFS looks east from its earlier runs fwiw. Friday looks interesting though IMO this isn’t our storm - which is fine. This is fun to track for the epic weather it’ll bring SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Do yourself a favor and go to bed instead of looking at the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, canderson said: 0z GFS looks east from its earlier runs fwiw. Friday looks interesting though IMO this isn’t our storm - which is fine. This is fun to track for the epic weather it’ll bring SNE. The 0Z GFS really isn't all that great for SNE. Boston and Cape do ok but it's nothing historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Congrats lobsters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, GrandmasterB said: The 0Z GFS really isn't all that great for SNE. Boston and Cape do ok but it's nothing historic. Yea I thought it hugged closer - I gave up when it was noticeably east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nit picks aside on it shifting it’s swath east a bit (and south some with the initial snowfall development in our neck of the woods), GFS is still showing the same general theme of bombing the coastal storm out later and further east, only catching SNE with the more excessive snowfall. Euro has been exploding this into a big snowstorm starting much further down the coast. It’s a difference between a more run of the mill coastal with localized major snow (GFS) vs a sure fire NESIS cat 3+ considering how much of the megalopolis is within the 10+ in both the Euro and it’s ensemble mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Nit picks aside on it shifting it’s swath east a bit (and south some with the initial snowfall development in our neck of the woods), GFS is still showing the same general theme of bombing the coastal storm out later and further east, only catching SNE with the more excessive snowfall. Euro has been exploding this into a big snowstorm starting much further down the coast. It’s a difference between a more run of the mill coastal with localized major snow (GFS) vs a sure fire NESIS cat 3+ considering how much of the megalopolis is within the 10+ in both the Euro and it’s ensemble mean. The Euro to me is overamped. (Which seems to be a trend) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: The Euro to me is overamped. (Which seems to be a trend) Well on the other hand, we were sizing up 10+ in all the Sus Valley around the D5 timeframe leading up to the 1/16-17 storm and the end game from that was the 980mb low literally going right over my head haha. Yea that’s probably not happening with this storm but the Euro take is definitely easily in the realm of possibility, or even closer to the coast than that. It depends on the degree of phasing and how quickly it happens. Additionally, this initial area of snowfall that develops with the northern energy is still showing and I personally think with a major amplification like this that this will eventually start showing better QPF wise the closer we get, provided we don’t see a major setback in guidance back towards what it was showing a couple days ago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Models are just sad lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 40 minutes ago, canderson said: The Euro to me is overamped. (Which seems to be a trend) And the gfs is usually too progressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Quite cold tonight here, already down to 8ºF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Is there gonna be 1 to 3 inch storm Friday either way or was all that from coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The 0z EPS still gives hope of a more westward track for the coastal with a decent cluster of lows to be he west of the mean low position. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I have another question so yesterday my high for fri was 27 now its all the way to 35? would this signal the storm is closer to the coast? pushing warmer ocean air into our area? or am i reading to much into this I know normally our forecast highs tend to be warmer then they end up being warm bias and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 -5 degrees this morning. I need a slight warm up. Keep and eye on things you never know with these models. But looks like this is up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The 6z Euro still gives hope to the LSV. On to 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Here is the 6z Euro snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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