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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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1 hour ago, Newman said:

All the greats have the overrunning, I think much of central PA could see 3-6" from just the overrunning. Once the coastal takes over, that's when the shadow effect and sinking air ends up over central PA... but before that, some could still see advisory or low-end warning level snows

I just saw that Kyle is comparing this to the boxing day storm. I literally said the same thing this morning. Right now he's thinking 1-3" locally. 

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8 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That map is painful - it looks almost EXACTLY like the Boxing day Blizzard in 2010. In fact, Lancaster was projected to get 3-6" from that storm, but most areas of the county were left with flurries while NYC's suburbs had over 30" of wind-driven snow. 

If someone has a map from that storm and can post it beside the image above...the similarities would be striking. 

 

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Yep, agreed on both points!  GFS did not take a step back and I thought improved in the upper levels.  Other thing I also noticed is that a few days ago the storm wasn't really developing until at our latitude or later.  Which wouldn't work.  Now the models are strengthening it around the outer banks as it moves northeast.  The trend has been to strengthen the storm further south...I'm guessing because of an earlier/cleaner phase.  Let's see if we can keep that going!

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10 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Yep, agreed on both points!  GFS did not take a step back and I thought improved in the upper levels.  Other thing I also noticed is that a few days ago the storm wasn't really developing until at our latitude or later.  Which wouldn't work.  Now the models are strengthening it around the outer banks as it moves northeast.  The trend has been to strengthen the storm further south...I'm guessing because of an earlier/cleaner phase.  Let's see if we can keep that going!

Exactly, great post!

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The 18z EPS says the the LSV is still in the game.

Several ensemble members are taking the inner track more towards the coast and to the west of the mean.

If that western cluster of lows ends up winning out as the final track, then we are in business back here.

Some of these ensemble members have 960’s lows south of our latitude!

This is far from over…

2F1CD624-29C4-4E5A-80D6-D4D2F3BA8FD6.png

BF76F000-DB95-4ED9-83A8-ECEEF189063F.png

22048325-780B-490B-8A5A-CB53D9E8ACB9.png

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The 18z Euro Control run is impressive.

It’s not far from delivering a major storm to the LSV. As it is, it still delivers low end Warning level snow to the LSV at 10-1 ratios. 
It has the low pressure at 964 at our latitude off of the coast of NJ. With this much deepening, I would think the deform band would expand even further west than depicted on this run.

So much potential, we just need a little bump west….

E0B6A33F-2286-4000-B2DA-2AA0EAE3D93C.png

B7C26F0B-CA93-465F-A969-21AAFD505B1E.png

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