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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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Here's this mornings Mount Holly AFD regarding the weekend storm.  It's a shame we're stuck with CTP.

All eyes remain on the late week period with the potential for a
strong coastal storm to affect portions of the Eastern Seaboard. In
short, there has not been much change to the forecast philosophy nor
the gridded forecast. Overnight guidance, minus the 0z EC, generally
favored a further offshore and less impactful evolution from this
storm versus yesterday`s 12z runs. But at this stage, it is
difficult to say whether these runs are any more reliable than those
of yesterday, which generally showed a higher impact event. The
storm threat remains, and we will be continuing to monitor.

In terms of the technicals, it is pretty remarkable the sensitivity
that operational guidance is showing to what the placement of a
shortwave trough moving out of western Canada will be come late
Thursday. There are other factors in play, and it will be a complex
evolution, but that shortwave is the big one. It will be somewhere
over the Southwest US by Thursday evening, but how far west it is
will determine whether that shortwave gets left behind, or whether
it phases with additional energy downstream. Much of the 24.12z
guidance was more aggressive in ejecting that shortwave faster and
further east, resulting in an earlier phase and major winter weather
impacts for the mid-Atlantic. But the trend in most of the 24.18z
and 25.00z guidance was for that shortwave to hang back more,
resulting in an incomplete phase or a phase too late for much
impact. The 25.0z EC was an exception, and shows what could happen
in a faster phase scenario. These sort of fluctuations are common at
this lead time, and will likely continue today. I hesitate to
speculate too much on which outcome is more likely. However, will
reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events
where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range.
So if nothing else am definitely not inclined to write it off based
on some of the more eastward 0z runs. Think we will probably start
to see model solutions stabilize and converge towards tonight or
tomorrow as shortwave energy is better sampled. For now, more
generic messaging remains prudent.

 

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the 0z Euro snow map.

9A1194E3-9EC2-4662-A780-0F14822A90A1.png

That map is painful - it looks almost EXACTLY like the Boxing day Blizzard in 2010. In fact, Lancaster was projected to get 3-6" from that storm, but most areas of the county were left with flurries while NYC's suburbs had over 30" of wind-driven snow. 

If someone has a map from that storm and can post it beside the image above...the similarities would be striking. 

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46 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

You can't weenie wishcast a nor' easter with that attitude!  It's still close enough to pray for small trends at least for those of us east of Harrisburg.  Chin up paweather!

Absolutely.  No matter where this ends up...still plenty of time for this to move around a bit.  One thing this event has is that it has trended back west in the last 2 days, and not OTS like the last few, so there is something different about this one.  Does is stop today, or continue eeking towards us, we'll find out soon.  IF that ULL dives in a tad sooner, it can make a notable difference in trajectory as it comes up at us.

 

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Not so much as a stray flurry here yesterday, not that I was expecting anything.  Friday looks like some extreme morning cold, followed by scattered snow showers from the frontal passage, and then the coastal likely slides off below us.  Hoping for some NW trends to bring meaningful precip back into eastern zones of the forum.  Wouldn't bet on it but not ruling it out either.  Today and tomorrow's runs crucial.

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4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Not so much as a stray flurry here yesterday, not that I was expecting anything.  Friday looks like some extreme morning cold, followed by scattered snow showers from the frontal passage, and then the coastal likely slides off below us.  Hoping for some NW trends to bring meaningful precip back into eastern zones of the forum.  Wouldn't bet on it but not ruling it out either.  Today and tomorrow's runs crucial.

You nailed it. Very well stated...every word. 

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Yesterday was well modeled for our area to be a zero sum flake total.  Canderson saw like 20 and thats 20 more than he should have got. 

It's definitely been a challenging year, and we've sure have the fail part down pretty well...but like said so often, anyone that says fail, is right 70% of the time....without even looking at a map.  And that takes no talent/skill whatsoever. 

This is a weather board, and the fun for some of us is to discuss (good and bad).  This winter has been a great opportunity to learn (even if it's just another way to fail). 

Dont forget, we've also had years where "it wants to snow" in less than stellar patterns, and they've puzzled us in a good way.  That's the fun of this. 

Here's to hoping for a good nooner set of runs, and if not...so be it.

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For those that still want to track....

RGEM and NAM dont look horrible for Friday.  Were I to extrapolate, HH Friday night has it snowing for eastern 1/2 of state as arctic boundary approaches and looks to interact w/ coastal.  Does coastal pop n save us...dunno, but like I said, its something.

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2 minutes ago, paweather said:

GFS nice light snow hit on Friday

yep at 84 it is slightly west and 90 it carries that same theme.  Precip panels responded well to interaction w/ arctic boundary.  

I think if one sets reasonable expectations, we might eek out our first legit WWA or low end (easters) Warning event if we can keep this tracking a bit further west.  Any better interaction w/ arctic boundary likely gives mood snows for many here.

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@96 and 102 it is about 100 miles W of 6z.  Thats what we need to see.  IF we get a couple more ticks W, its a nice event for many here.  Not saying its happening, but its the trend we need.  500's look notably better (not there yet), but sharper/more neg tilt.  I'll take this as a good step.

 

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Just now, GrandmasterB said:

GFS definitely keeping the door open.  2-4" east of the river without much precip from the coastal.  Still 3+ days out.  I know NE gets hammered, but I'm not tossing a moderate event just because I'm not jacked.

100% agree.  2-4 IS a big win for many in LSV.   I'll gladly take in hopes that the next one...or one after that...whatevs....gets me in the jackzone.  

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