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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It looks like the good band of precip has pushed east of the mountains and should be on our doorstep soon. There is precip all the way back to eastern Ohio that will hopefully ride east along the turnpike this evening.

I still want my inch of snow…lol!

Me too!  It's an hour later and still nothing.  It's getting dark now so I can't enjoy it as much.  (Not complaining.  I still have a solid 2.5" icy base from last week).

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2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Me too!  It's an hour later and still nothing.  It's getting dark now so I can't enjoy it as much.  (Not complaining.  I still have a solid 2.5" icy base from last week).

I think it's getting close to starting.  Solid echoes are finally overhead.  I can judge by temperatures that it is definitely snowing out in Newburg, which is about 25 miles west of me.  Looks like there's pretty good intensity as well.  Fingers crossed.  Temp 32.9, dew point 21, wet bulb 29.

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

Yea this isn’t going to do anything in the LSV unfortunately. Oh well. 

Listen. I feel for you sorry lot. I was insanely busy yesterday and disregarded today because I ass/u/me'd that it was for you guys and not me. I sign on this morning and find out it's for lucky meeeeeeeeee. 

 

I'm hoping the weekend brings a miracle for the Cumberland and Susquehanna valleys. 

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1 minute ago, Atomixwx said:

Listen. I feel for you sorry lot. I was insanely busy yesterday and disregarded today because I ass/u/me'd that it was for you guys and not me. I sign on this morning and find out it's for lucky meeeeeeeeee. 

 

I'm hoping the weekend brings a miracle for the Cumberland and Susquehanna valleys. 

I didn’t expect anything so no biggie here! Think we do need a miracle to get anything this week too - wasting good cold air sucks. 

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

It's a clipper with a lousy trajectory to produce anything more than flurries or very light snow southeast of the mountains. 

Every time...

I currently have a light coating on my car tops & snow piles.

Very light snow falling.

You are right about Clippers…

I have a saying that I developed when I was a young weather fan….”never count on a Clipper”!

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14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I currently have a light coating on my car tops & snow piles.

Very light snow falling.

You are right about Clippers…

I have a saying that I developed when I was a young weather fan….”never count on a Clipper”!

It’s not reaching the ground in the city. No flakeage. 

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1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

Can confirm. What a snowy day. Roads are a disaster.

We’re probably going to get some kind of repeat of this starting late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening with clipper #2 as well. 

New 0z HRRR, and this seemed to do half decent with today’s event.

image.thumb.png.d46737f08d818f98cd63f8867ea5db7f.png

 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

I have a dusting! I am frankly shocked. 

My expectations were rather low on this one.  The majority of the model runs leading up to this event pretty much kept me under 1".  I ended up with 0.3" which was just enough to cover the sidewalks and my cul-de-sac street.  The one thing i noticed while outside just now and near the one street light on my street was the incredible crystalline nature of the snow.  It looked like a sea of diamonds sending up shimmering reflections of light.  The other interesting thing was because the past several mornings have been near or below 10 degrees, the snow immediately began to stick and accumulate on those surfaces even though the temp was close to 34 leading into the clipper.  Finally, it's now been 7 continuous days with snow cover, longest stretch of the winter and very likely to last throughout most of this upcoming week.

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22 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

My expectations were rather low on this one.  The majority of the model runs leading up to this event pretty much kept me under 1".  I ended up with 0.3" which was just enough to cover the sidewalks and my cul-de-sac street.  The one thing i noticed while outside just now and near the one street light on my street was the incredible crystalline nature of the snow.  It looked like a sea of diamonds sending up shimmering reflections of light.  The other interesting thing was because the past several mornings have been near or below 10 degrees, the snow immediately began to stick and accumulate on those surfaces even though the temp was close to 34 leading into the clipper.  Finally, it's now been 7 continuous days with snow cover, longest stretch of the winter and very likely to last throughout most of this upcoming week.

I guess I had a trace - it is now all melted. IE unmeasurable 

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Well I’m surprised @Blizzard of 93isn’t around tonight with updates haha but there has been a distinct shift in guidance (ops and ensembles) tonight towards this coastal system being a good bit closer to the coast and quite strong as it has been occasionally showing inconsistently on op guidance (mostly the GFS). 

Tonights 0z Canadian actually gets the coastal system back into some of the Sus Valley which is roughly supported by it’s ensemble mean taking a developing low off the coast just inside the benchmark. The GFS and Euro have benchmark systems, which also show that approximately on their ensemble means. The Euro (in a massive difference from 12z Sunday) specifically detonated New England with exploding low pressure at sub 960 near the benchmark to an eventual 946mb in the Gulf of Maine.

Despite a few big C-PA hits on a few GEFS and Euro EPS members, the coastal storm is still ultimately too far east for us but this was the kind of model cycle I’ve been waiting to see in terms of collective support among all guidance of some kind of bigger coastal storm and associated phasing. And this is starting to show right around the D5-6 timeframe too, so we’ll see how this evolves. Like I mentioned earlier, what’s also to be considered is even if the coastal misses east is lighter snows from the northern branch wave that phases in to pop the coastal low. That’s also showing to a degree on guidance now as well. 

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Well I’m surprised @Blizzard of 93isn’t around tonight with updates haha but there has been a distinct shift in guidance (ops and ensembles) tonight towards this coastal system being a good bit closer to the coast and quite strong as it has been occasionally showing inconsistently on op guidance (mostly the GFS). 

Tonights 0z Canadian actually gets the coastal system back into some of the Sus Valley which is roughly supported by it’s ensemble mean taking a developing low off the coast just inside the benchmark. The GFS and Euro have benchmark systems, which also show that approximately on their ensemble means. The Euro (in a massive difference from 12z Sunday) specifically detonated New England with exploding low pressure at sub 960 near the benchmark to an eventual 946mb in the Gulf of Maine.

Despite a few big C-PA hits on a few GEFS and Euro EPS members, the coastal storm is still ultimately too far east for us but this was the kind of model cycle I’ve been waiting to see in terms of collective support among all guidance of some kind of bigger coastal storm and associated phasing. And this is starting to show right around the D5-6 timeframe too, so we’ll see how this evolves. Like I mentioned earlier, what’s also to be considered is even if the coastal misses east is lighter snows from the northern branch wave that phases in to pop the coastal low. That’s also showing to a degree on guidance now as well. 

Wow! Great news…!

I fell asleep early last night…sounds like I will not be getting that much sleep the rest of the week due to all of the tracking!

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