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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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Well my prediction for my low overnight came true.  I broke into the negative with a -0.6 degrees, which rounds to -1.0 officially.  Solid snowpack definitely helped, even though it's only 2-3".  It got the sleet/zr crust on top preserving it.  My dog can walk on top of it without falling through.  He only weighs 14 pounds.

Temp has rebounded all the way up to 19 degrees on its way to close to 25 in a few hours.  So, no snowmelt today.

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1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

Have weird feeling tomorrow over performs for most….lol no idea why but I do. 

It certainly could simply because it will be a high ratio snow, likely of the 18-20:1 variety overall and perhaps even higher ratios in the mountains where there will be some extra upslope lift on the westerly flow. Whole column from 850mb up is in the ideal temp range for snow growth.  I think the Laurels counties probably could get an advisory type deal (PBZ already has them out). The big thing will be seeing how the precip makes it away from the Laurel’s and how much of a downsloping shadow gets cast towards the Sus Valley. Good chance most see a minimum coating to an inch though.

This whole process looks like it may repeat itself to some degree Monday evening regardless of what the southern stream wave Tuesday does because the second clipper low running the northern branch now looks like it’s going to run ahead of it.  

Then later Tuesday would be the timeframe for the southern stream system to do something. GFS/Euro have become extremely disinterested in doing anything with it and instead squashing it into the Gulf of Mexico. Our newly anointed guru of the 60-84hr range the NAM brings it up enough to generate some light snow in PA on the arctic frontal boundary, which I think is what we should look for from that system as a best case scenario since we have the northern branch clipper low coming out ahead and thus not much opportunity to amplify and try to turn up. 

Either way though, that’s three distinct chances at snowfall for C-PA the next 3 days even if they’re lighter events. And I have pretty high confidence in the first 2 doing something. 

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We have to fight the dry air too.

26 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

It certainly could simply because it will be a high ratio snow, likely of the 18-20:1 variety overall and perhaps even higher ratios in the mountains where there will be some extra upslope lift on the westerly flow. Whole column from 850mb up is in the ideal temp range for snow growth.  I think the Laurels counties probably could get an advisory type deal (PBZ already has them out). The big thing will be seeing how the precip makes it away from the Laurel’s and how much of a downsloping shadow gets cast towards the Sus Valley. Good chance most see a minimum coating to an inch though.

This whole process looks like it may repeat itself to some degree Monday evening regardless of what the southern stream wave Tuesday does because the second clipper low running the northern branch now looks like it’s going to run ahead of it.  

Then later Tuesday would be the timeframe for the southern stream system to do something. GFS/Euro have become extremely disinterested in doing anything with it and instead squashing it into the Gulf of Mexico. Our newly anointed guru of the 60-84hr range the NAM brings it up enough to generate some light snow in PA on the arctic frontal boundary, which I think is what we should look for from that system as a best case scenario since we have the northern branch clipper low coming out ahead and thus not much opportunity to amplify and try to turn up. 

Either way though, that’s three distinct chances at snowfall for C-PA the next 3 days even if they’re lighter events. And I have pretty high confidence in the first 2 doing something. 

We have to fight off the dry air too.

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27 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

It certainly could simply because it will be a high ratio snow, likely of the 18-20:1 variety overall and perhaps even higher ratios in the mountains where there will be some extra upslope lift on the westerly flow. Whole column from 850mb up is in the ideal temp range for snow growth.  I think the Laurels counties probably could get an advisory type deal (PBZ already has them out). The big thing will be seeing how the precip makes it away from the Laurel’s and how much of a downsloping shadow gets cast towards the Sus Valley. Good chance most see a minimum coating to an inch though.

This whole process looks like it may repeat itself to some degree Monday evening regardless of what the southern stream wave Tuesday does because the second clipper low running the northern branch now looks like it’s going to run ahead of it.  

Then later Tuesday would be the timeframe for the southern stream system to do something. GFS/Euro have become extremely disinterested in doing anything with it and instead squashing it into the Gulf of Mexico. Our newly anointed guru of the 60-84hr range the NAM brings it up enough to generate some light snow in PA on the arctic frontal boundary, which I think is what we should look for from that system as a best case scenario since we have the northern branch clipper low coming out ahead and thus not much opportunity to amplify and try to turn up. 

Either way though, that’s three distinct chances at snowfall for C-PA the next 3 days even if they’re lighter events. And I have pretty high confidence in the first 2 doing something. 

yeah things really "went south"...lol....for my Tuesday gig.  NS got a bit out ahead and instead of working with the SS vort....it screwed things up.  Just get my ground white and I'll be fine.

 

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