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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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Looks like at 3:00 I am finally going to drop below 32.0 (I'm teetering between 32.0 and 31.8) and stay below there the rest of the day.  I didn't warm up that much...only to 34.  A check of some of the models that output surface temps shows that every one of them has busted low by several degrees.  The HRRR seems to be way high on tomorrow night's lows, only dropping the MDT area, including me, to a low of +8F.  Fortunately, I've got a nice, solid snow pack that still is close to 3" deep.  That should help tremendously with radiational cooling tomorrow night.  NWS has me at +2 for the low so I definitely have a shot at zero or a little below.  Looks like that Euro chart from MAG shows me at around -3 or so.

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35 minutes ago, canderson said:

hahahah that's fantastic - a pretty day for kids to be outside though! Not too cold at all in the sun. 

Yea, its 35 here right now so a decent day. Sledding for those that have hills.  There was a rumor (and I think a legit one) that they pulled the trigger for more than one reason. 

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The arctic front was slower moving through, which means that the front won't move as far south as originally thought, which means the Saturday storm will end up much farther NW than modeled resulting in snow here.

And that...is my all out weenie wishcast post of the year. :) 

Actually, it does look like the next storm is coming farther NW. Problem is, we needed a 600 mile adjustment, which is just a WEE bit much 36 hours out. LOL

I like the logic....really do.  Now just go tweak the models a bit....

It would be nice to get an ol fashioned "surprise" snowfall.  

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7 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Holy cow, what a beast on the GFS at day #9 - yeah, fantasy land an all of that, but if the pattern is going to break down as advertised, that would be the way to do it. 

If this verified - I'd call it a winter:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

Yes please!

According to the Mid Atlantic thread, the 18z GEFS looked really good for this time period.

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes please!

According to the Mid Atlantic thread, the 18z GEFS looked really good for this time period.

I didn’t really see anything that jumped out to me on the 18z GEFS guidance regarding that event. The storm signal is there, but it’s pretty scattershot on low positions and they’re mostly well offshore. That’s to be expected at that range but it wasn’t anything crazy in terms of a major storm signal. Surely the overall pattern for a bigger event is pretty favorable, but this is difficult pattern to assess individual storm potential out past 5 days or so. Our Sunday/Mon event at the beginning of this week wasn’t seen much at all consistently until it was within that timeframe, for example. There’s a lot of different shortwaves running a very progressive pattern and we need to line things up to pop a bigger storm… and models simply aren’t going to see that consistently even in the medium range. 

I think our next potential widespread event looks to be the Tuesday-ish one, which will depend on a closed 500mb ejecting out of the SW and how that interacts with the dominant northern stream regime. Probably not a major event but it could be a light to moderate one if this heads the way of what the GFS has been showing. GEFS/Euro EPS shows it to some degree too. Something to monitor. I know some folks keep asking about where the clippers have been, well this is a pattern that’s good for producing them. So I wouldn’t be surprised if we score one or two of those during our cold 8-14 day stint. There is a weak clipper system progged before that Tuesday potential around Sunday eve, but that probably only has minor snowfall focused in the western half of the state. 

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8 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

I remember the super clipper I believe that followed the 96' Blizzard.  We r do for a widespread 1-3" ol fashioned clipper .

Harrisburg had close to a foot in that clipper in 96, as I remember driving in it. Was an over performer for sure as they weren’t calling for nearly as much.  Thumped hard for 6 to 8 hours then we all know what happened with rains a few days later.

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9 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

I remember the super clipper I believe that followed the 96' Blizzard.  We r do for a widespread 1-3" ol fashioned clipper .

96 in Harrisburg had the historic Blizzard, then the Clipper a couple of days later that gave another solid 3 or 4 inches, & then the second coastal storm a few days later that brought nearly 1 more foot of snow.

We had about 40 inches of snow in 1 week combined!

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15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

96 in Harrisburg had the historic Blizzard, then the Clipper a couple of days later that gave another solid 3 or 4 inches, & then the second coastal storm a few days later that brought nearly 1 more foot of snow.

We had about 40 inches of snow in 1 week combined!

I remember a clipper we had here, NWS was calling for about 3in. but during the event NWS had to up the amounts, we ended up with 8 in. But I can't recall what year that was. My guess it was 10+ years ago.

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A low of 11 here and a current DP of 0.  Should get even colder tonight but it's a shame we just lost our snowpack around these parts.  Man, no matter which model you look at, over the course of their entire runs QPF is hard to come by.  Agree with others that something will pop for us at some point.  Sure hope so because it would be a real shame to waste all this arctic air.

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50 minutes ago, Birdbean said:

Harrisburg had close to a foot in that clipper in 96, as I remember driving in it. Was an over performer for sure as they weren’t calling for nearly as much.  Thumped hard for 6 to 8 hours then we all know what happened with rains a few days later.

 

25 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

96 in Harrisburg had the historic Blizzard, then the Clipper a couple of days later that gave another solid 3 or 4 inches, & then the second coastal storm a few days later that brought nearly 1 more foot of snow.

We had about 40 inches of snow in 1 week combined!

The Blizzard of 96 primarily fell on a Sunday into Monday morning. On Tuesday, a clipper raced through- I measured 2" in Centerville but areas south of here in MD had up to 6-8". Finally, a coastal delivered 11" here that Friday. I have all of this written out in great detail.

The following week brought a massive rainfall combined with temperatures in the 50s to completely obliterate what was still a 2' snowpack in the matter of 8-10 hours. By Saturday the main stem Susquehanna was way out of its banks. 

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