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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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light rain here, but gotta be close to the changover.  They are 16 minutes late..:lol:

All good..

Still think next Tuesday needs watched.  Couple models showing the NS/SS vorts and GFS shows them working together a bit more once again.  CMC and ICON are too far apart.

 

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22 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

light rain here, but gotta be close to the changover.  They are 16 minutes late..:lol:

All good..

Still think next Tuesday needs watched.  Couple models showing the NS/SS vorts and GFS shows them working together a bit more once again.  CMC and ICON are too far apart.

 

For Tuesday, the 6z GFS shows the northern & southern stream interact to bring us a light to moderate snow event.

The Canadian was just northern stream, basically a Clipper.

78AAE5FD-259B-47D8-B9F8-0643D6692531.png

B035A390-2AC6-43C0-8370-6CE091DCC614.png

9F1A9B9A-02BC-4A95-9C68-E3DDE4F16AA6.png

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12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

For Tuesday, the 6z GFS shows the northern & southern stream interact to bring us a light to moderate snow event.

The Canadian was just northern stream, basically a Clipper.

78AAE5FD-259B-47D8-B9F8-0643D6692531.png

B035A390-2AC6-43C0-8370-6CE091DCC614.png

9F1A9B9A-02BC-4A95-9C68-E3DDE4F16AA6.png

ICON looks similar to GEM.  Worlds apart.  

Euro not interested either, but lets see if the GFS is sniffing out the next one like it has been.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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BGM Friday Night:yikes:

Friday night is starting to show the hallmarks of an extremely
cold night under Arctic high pressure. Though model guidance is
already quite low for minimum temperatures, this is a situation
in which guidance typically struggles to keep up. The
atmospheric column will be extremely dry, to the point that
model precipitable water value values are just three to six
hundredths of an inch; it simply just does not ever get lower
than that around here. This along with snow on the ground should
promote ideal radiational cooling, and there is concern that
the bottom could really fall out for temperatures. Our forecast
has large majority of the area reaching well below zero; in many
cases by double digits. This already skews below most guidance,
but it should be noted that there is at least a chance for some
locations to hit 20 below.
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Driving into office I saw mashed taters in Akron, to all snow in Lititz to starting to slush up in Manheim, to getting white and roads caving in Etown (slushy kinda caving). 

I share that because its basically a East to West drive in Lanco and shows the difference in what 25 miles can do w/ what one sees.  I see it ALL THE TIME.  I'd bet I barely get white as the transition likely started too late. Etown will be the winner again. 

35 in Akron to 31 by the time I got to Etown.  

 

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24 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Just now transitioning to snow here, which is a couple hours later than expected, but already wasted .25 of qpf.  Temp at 34 still and all surfaces just wet.  The dewpoint of 32 tells the story.  We'll see what the next couple of hours bring but anything more than an inch would be a win at this point.

Not the first time we've seen the transition be a little late...is it? lol

It was a concern from early on, and set my expectations accordingly, but put my hopes in CTP seeing something I/we didn't w/ column being cooled sufficiently would work out.  NBD....onto the next one...whenever that is.  (still hoping Tuesday comes around).

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7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Not the first time we've seen the transition be a little late...is it? lol

It was a concern from early on, and set my expectations accordingly, but put my hopes in CTP seeing something I/we didn't w/ column being cooled sufficiently would work out.  NBD....onto the next one...whenever that is.  (still hoping Tuesday comes around).

Nope, it's sure not ha.  Snow moderate here now but only stickage appears to be to my grill cover.  Hoping Tuesday brings something worthwhile because it sure looks dry for the foreseeable future.  Not overly optimistic. 

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Nope, it's sure not ha.  Snow moderate here now but only stickage appears to be to my grill cover.  Hoping Tuesday brings something worthwhile because it sure looks dry for the foreseeable future.  Not overly optimistic. 

parking lot getting white here #caving...lol  Snowing nicely here in downtown Etown.

Yeah Tuesday sure isnt oozing potential, but NS/SS vorts seem to be close enough to watch (a la GFS).  That could easily fade (like Icon/Euro already think).  Just putting a little faith in the model that seems to have a decent nose to sniff em out this year and that look sorta fits the pattern.

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Just got into the office after a late night in Philly - 2 different worlds in a 12 mile drive.

Home - snow, 31 degrees and everything is covered. Snow on snow in my back yard. Roads were a mess.

Work - Snow/rain mix, wet roads, nothing to see here yet.

In between  - very little evidence of snow south of Chickies. Different world north of the hill. 

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38 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Driving into office I saw mashed taters in Akron, to all snow in Lititz to starting to slush up in Manheim, to getting white and roads caving in Etown (slushy kinda caving). 

I share that because its basically a East to West drive in Lanco and shows the difference in what 25 miles can do w/ what one sees.  I see it ALL THE TIME.  I'd bet I barely get white as the transition likely started too late. Etown will be the winner again. 

35 in Akron to 31 by the time I got to Etown.  

 

Just saw this - at my casa just down the road from Etown, same story. Moderately heavy snow and 31. 

Last year, you seemed to do much better than I did. I remember posts including pics of your snowy landscape while I was staring at my dead grass. Sure seems like things have switched this winter. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Just saw this - at my casa just down the road from Etown, same story. Moderately heavy snow and 31. 

Last year, you seemed to do much better than I did. I remember posts including pics of your snowy landscape while I was staring at my dead grass. Sure seems like things have switched this winter. 

Hey....it's your turn....Mo nature just leveling the distribution out a bit.  Looks perty out the window.  You'll like the look when you get home. 

I'm just hoping for white when I get home.....any white.  

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