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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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39 minutes ago, anotherman said:

This place was dead today. Come on! We are not the only place getting shafted by the weekend storm. The Euro sucked everyone in and then crapped on their dreams. I still think we have a shot in the next two weeks for a bigger storm.

Exactly…lots of potential over the next 2 weeks.

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14 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I don't know how much I'll ultimately end up with...but surprisingly I'm already down below freezing at 31.3 degrees.  Guess I don't have to worry about the initial "mush" NWS was speaking of.  lol

Just read CTP's disco, and they also are not worried about losing much to boundary layer issues, as the cold is pressing and should cool column sufficiently.  Hope thats the case.  I'll be happy w/ 2 or 3, and just want it to stick around.  

HH for next tues. looked a bit more strung out, but still plenty of time for that one.

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I won't keep updating but my temperature continues to drop even though skies are overcast and it is not precipitating.  I"m now down to 29.1 and headed down.  One other thing that is noteworthy is that from this point forward my temperature is not forecast to rise above freezing for at least the next 7 consecutive days.  That doesn't happen too much around these parts anymore.  Just going by memory, I think the last such period of consecutive days below freezing was 11 back in January of either 2014 or 2015...which ever year was the brutal cold winter with the "polar vortex".  With a high temp today of only 41.7 degrees I lost very little snowpack.  I still have about 2.5" solid everywhere.  Hopefully after tomorrow morning there will be another inch or two.

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CTP just reissued the Advisory a few minutes ago, so they seem confident.

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1028 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

PAZ036-057-059-063>066-201130-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0006.220120T0700Z-220120T1600Z/
Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Chambersburg, Harrisburg, Hershey,
Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
1028 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 11 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will be falling steadily
  from the mid 30s at the onset of the snow to the mid and upper
  20s during the peak morning commute hours. This will cause
  freezing of any untreated wet roads, as a result of the
  initial snow melting on the warmer paved surfaces.

 

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2 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I won't keep updating but my temperature continues to drop even though skies are overcast and it is not precipitating.  I"m now down to 29.1 and headed down.  One other thing that is noteworthy is that from this point forward my temperature is not forecast to rise above freezing for at least the next 7 consecutive days.  That doesn't happen too much around these parts anymore.  Just going by memory, I think the last such period of consecutive days below freezing was 11 back in January of either 2014 or 2015...which ever year was the brutal cold winter with the "polar vortex".  With a high temp today of only 41.7 degrees I lost very little snowpack.  I still have about 2.5" solid everywhere.  Hopefully after tomorrow morning there will be another inch or two.

During the winter of 2017-18, we had 364 consecutive hours below freezing, from 12/25/17 to 1/9/18.  MDT set record lows of -2 and -1 on January 1 & 3, respectively.  I recorded my lowest ever temp on my home station of -5.2 at 6:38am on January 1.

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

During the winter of 2017-18, we had 364 consecutive hours below freezing, from 12/25/17 to 1/9/18.  MDT set record lows of -2 and -1 on January 1 & 3, respectively.  I recorded my lowest ever temp on my home station of -5.2 at 6:38am on January 1.

Wow.  Well I know my memory isn't quite what it used to be.  So the time frame was quite a bit longer and it was more recently as well.  364/24=15 days + 4 hours.  That's half a month!  Impressive.  I'm surprised I did not remember those sub-zero record lows.  Instead of the snow being mush I think it's my brain beginning to turn...lol.  Thanks for the info!  I'm surprised I did not hear from @djr5001 with the historical data.  He's always been pretty good with that stuff.

PS>>My temp has been very slowly heading back higher and I'm now up to 31.6 degrees.  Once the precip begins it will bring down the temperature with it so no worries.

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6 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Wow.  Well I know my memory isn't quite what it used to be.  So the time frame was quite a bit longer and it was more recently as well.  364/24=15 days + 4 hours.  That's half a month!  Impressive.  I'm surprised I did not remember those sub-zero record lows.  Instead of the snow being mush I think it's my brain beginning to turn...lol.  Thanks for the info!  I'm surprised I did not hear from @djr5001 with the historical data.  He's always been pretty good with that stuff.

PS>>My temp has been very slowly heading back higher and I'm now up to 31.6 degrees.  Once the precip begins it will bring down the temperature with it so no worries.

Remarkable difference- I'm at 38.4!

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11 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Wow.  Well I know my memory isn't quite what it used to be.  So the time frame was quite a bit longer and it was more recently as well.  364/24=15 days + 4 hours.  That's half a month!  Impressive.  I'm surprised I did not remember those sub-zero record lows.  Instead of the snow being mush I think it's my brain beginning to turn...lol.  Thanks for the info!  I'm surprised I did not hear from @djr5001 with the historical data.  He's always been pretty good with that stuff.

PS>>My temp has been very slowly heading back higher and I'm now up to 31.6 degrees.  Once the precip begins it will bring down the temperature with it so no worries.

Oh don't worry it wasn't my memory that produced that haha.  I had it noted in my spreadsheet that I use to track precip totals.  

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How strange with the temp reversing from earlier.  It's been very slowly rising and now is back above freezing at 33.1 degrees.  I'm still not worried about much loss at the beginning.  It won't take long for precip to become snow and start to accumulate.  I see the radar is showing rain echoes over me right now but so far it's been dry.  I'll be back in the morning (after 9:00) with a total measurement for whatever falls overnight.  Off to bed for me now.

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CTP again reissued this at 3:35 am, so they must still be confident at this time.

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
335 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

PAZ036-057-059-063>066-201600-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220120T1600Z/
Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Chambersburg, Harrisburg, Hershey,
Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
335 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of generally
  1 to 2 inches. Spotty 3 inch totals will occur, mainly on hill
  tops.

* WHERE...South Central and Southeastern Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The onset of the snow will be just before
  the morning commute begins, and temperatures will fall below
  freezing during the morning commute. At first, the snow will
  melt as it hits warmer paved surfaces. This will cause freezing
  of any untreated wet roads.

 

 

 

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Here are CTP’s thoughts in their am discussion:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
First wave moving off to the east and taking the light rain over
the SE with it. A stronger short wave trough will move up
through WV and nrn VA by morning. This will bring in a second
batch of precip. By that time, almost everyone across the srn
tier will be cold enough to have snow or a rain/snow mix for an
hour or so before going to plain snow. Onset of snow still
looks like 5-6AM for the SE, and some moderate rates (<1"/hr)
are likely thru mid-morning. Keeping the forecast solid with
1-2" totals for most and a sprinkling of 3" numbers in there for
the higher elevs SE of I-81. Temps across the entire CWA look
like they will waggle only a couple of degrees all day long.
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