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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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18 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I get the eye again.    What a storm that would be.   The wind would be insane 

stink eye...brown eye....pick one...or both.

Just playing around but that one really brought up my blood pressure.

Not AGAIN.  Two retros in a month.  No thanks.

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7 minutes ago, anotherman said:


I think it will, but it really is incredible how poor the performance of the Euro is.

The Euro years ago used to be locked in once near 100 hours out. It used to win when it was on its own and other models would come around to it. Now it has become just another model. It still is a very good model, but it now seems to have more flaws just like the other models since they apparently upgraded it a few years ago.

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Looking over the 18z Eps for Saturday ...there's still plenty of uncertainty for so close in.  Trend since 6z hasn't been good obviously.  Ensembles could be playing catchup but being so close in and with decent spread offers a chance even if slim. I'll give through tomorrow night at least .

In the meantime, what is the potential high end snow upside of the Thursday am chance for the LSV & northern MD?

A few models show 1-3 or 2-4 inches of snow, but any way to further juice this up?

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41 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Blasphemy. You’ll get like 25-30 consecutive weeks of 50s or higher soon enough.

I have to wear 4 shirts, jeans, long john's, and a hoodie when it's this cold because I have to be outside during the loading and unloading. Layering up like that every day gets old after awile.

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We do still have snow in our immediate future in the LSV. Here are some of CTP’s thoughts from their forecast discussion.

Vertical profiles for the srn tier look like they will rapidly
cool late tonight. During times of higher precip intensity, snow
often overcomes the melting effects of a marginal llvl temp
profile. Initial mush will go to a slightly drier snow as SLRs
get into the lower/mid teens south of I-81 right around sunrise.
Much of the snow is east of Harrisburg and York by the end of
rush hour, but will linger in Lanc County into the late morning.

The snow amounts have not changed much over the last two days.
Since we are getting closer to the event, our confidence has
grown in an advisory-level event for the Lower Susq (esp
considering it come right in the morning rush). Much discussion
internally and productive chats with WPC/LWX/PHI has resulted in
passing the buck to the dayshift. There is plenty of time to
hoist the flags. Will continue to mention the 1-2" (maybe 3" in
the higher elevs) in the HWO and social media.
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Here is the CTP Hazardous Outlook:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
352 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

PAZ033-036-056>059-063>066-200900-
Somerset-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-
York-Lancaster-
352 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A light snowfall of 1 to 3 inches is possible starting late tonight.
The most likely area to receive the higher end snowfall amounts
would be south of I-81.

 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Weekend unfortunately is falling by the beachside. 

Yesterday, the LSV was in the bullseye for tomorrow. That has shifted south into northern MD. Still time for a bump north. 

More chances coming next week. :) 

The pattern buster at the end of the month or early February will be the storm. 

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4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Sad things couldn't come together for the weekend system. A good bit of my snow will melt today so tomorrow's .75-1" will be welcome. 

Problem is, with every model run the frontal boundary continues to press farther and farther south tonight. This results in wave going farther south, and if it keeps trending that way we might not see much of anything. 

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