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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

If we get the temps to cooperate I think Cashtown may classify this as a plowable. Surface temps are 32-34 during the height. 

 

 

Have you gone hour by hour through this event with surface temps?  The NAM has the temps between 32-34 right at the start around 4am, but at 5am the temps have dropped to 29, and that's when the major portion of the precip begins.  For most of us the forecast high for tomorrow is low 40's for a few hours in the afternoon.  With the incredibly cold ground there should be almost no loss of qpf at the start.  I think near the projected amounts are doable.  BTW, I'm not saying that the much higher amounts at 18z will happen, I just think that nearly all the qpf will be snow and it will stick, even if it's just an inch.

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2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Have you gone hour by hour through this event with surface temps?  The NAM has the temps between 32-34 right at the start around 4am, but at 5am the temps have dropped to 29, and that's when the major portion of the precip begins.  For most of us the forecast high for tomorrow is low 40's for a few hours in the afternoon.  With the incredibly cold ground there should be almost no loss of qpf at the start.  I think near the projected amounts are doable.  BTW, I'm not saying that the much higher amounts at 18z will happen, I just think that nearly all the qpf will be snow and it will stick, even if it's just an inch.

 

qpf_acc.us_state_pa.png

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3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Have you gone hour by hour through this event with surface temps?  The NAM has the temps between 32-34 right at the start around 4am, but at 5am the temps have dropped to 29, and that's when the major portion of the precip begins.  For most of us the forecast high for tomorrow is low 40's for a few hours in the afternoon.  With the incredibly cold ground there should be almost no loss of qpf at the start.  I think near the projected amounts are doable.  BTW, I'm not saying that the much higher amounts at 18z will happen, I just think that nearly all the qpf will be snow and it will stick, even if it's just an inch.

I did not go hour by hour but I am seeing the info differently.  Here are the 7AM temps.  I am looking at 12K not 3K right now.  Most of the LSV does not drop into the 20's until 10AMish.

 

image.png.8ad96807ce8ed8bad00e7fad3ee62f15.png

 

 

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

I only looked at 3k temps and timing . Temps quickly get to low 30s then upper 20s during precip and perfect timing before sunrise start .

I think that was the difference between where I was looking and you/Carlisle.  Either way my comment about "if we can get them to cooperate" was open to them cooperating vs saying they would not. 

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14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I did not go hour by hour but I am seeing the info differently.  Here are the 7AM temps.  I am looking at 12K not 3K right now.  Most of the LSV does not drop into the 20's until 10AMish.

 

image.png.8ad96807ce8ed8bad00e7fad3ee62f15.png

 

 

I'm not trying to be picky.  The 18z has the precip arriving a little bit earlier than 12z did...looking like start time between 1 and 2.  It actually doesn't stop the precip until 9am.  At 4am temps are very close to 32 for most of us and your map up there shows me to be 30 at 7am and i said i was 29 because I was referencing the 12z data.  I'm certainly willing to agree that perhaps the first tenth of an inch of qpf is not frozen.  Obviously things are changing rather quickly with each run.  Regardless, 18z is way better than any prior run on the 12k.  3k is not agreeing very well with 12k, however.  But HRRR is closer to 12k than 3k.

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17 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Have you gone hour by hour through this event with surface temps?  The NAM has the temps between 32-34 right at the start around 4am, but at 5am the temps have dropped to 29, and that's when the major portion of the precip begins.  For most of us the forecast high for tomorrow is low 40's for a few hours in the afternoon.  With the incredibly cold ground there should be almost no loss of qpf at the start.  I think near the projected amounts are doable.  BTW, I'm not saying that the much higher amounts at 18z will happen, I just think that nearly all the qpf will be snow and it will stick, even if it's just an inch.

We all approve of your logic....

Sound....very sound.

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7 minutes ago, canderson said:

Most of those pipes all busted last february so it's new infrastructure at least ... 

My Mo in Law winters just south of that green blob, like 15 miles from Mexico border.  If I share this with her, she might take me out of the will (after thinking about it....I'm not sure I'm in it :lol:)

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5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I'm not trying to be picky.  The 18z has the precip arriving a little bit earlier than 12z did...looking like start time between 1 and 2.  It actually doesn't stop the precip until 9am.  At 4am temps are very close to 32 for most of us and your map up there shows me to be 30 at 7am and i said i was 29 because I was referencing the 12z data.  I'm certainly willing to agree that perhaps the first tenth of an inch of qpf is not frozen.  Obviously things are changing rather quickly with each run.  Regardless, 18z is way better than any prior run on the 12k.  3k is not agreeing very well with 12k, however.  But HRRR is closer to 12k than 3k.

I am fine with any model disco so no issues on being picky.  I just looked and thought it was close so my comment was basically "If we can get them work with us, we would have a good snow" vs. they are not working.   The GFS was in the mid 30's when it started so not much room to spare if they are a tad warmer.  Fingers crossed we score. 

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I've read from at least 5-6 mets that as the strength of Thursday morning's wave continues to increase, it in turn is having a negative impact on the weekend event. Hopefully the narrow ribbon of goods early Thursday jackpots our forum because if we're on the outside looking in with that wave, it might very well be 0-2 around here soon. 

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55 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've read from at least 5-6 mets that as the strength of Thursday morning's wave continues to increase, it in turn is having a negative impact on the weekend event. Hopefully the narrow ribbon of goods early Thursday jackpots our forum because if we're on the outside looking in with that wave, it might very well be 0-2 around here soon. 

its all in the spacing.  18z has a slightly better look.  The bigger Thurs gets, the less room for amplification for your storm.  While normally I'd sacrifice small in hopes for bigger, Thurs, likelys gets us looking like winter.  Gonna be hard for me to root against it.  But I'm just being greedy.  

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