Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: After last storm I don't trust any model outside of 48 hrs. Probably true but it's all we have. Take them away and our weather is day to day and even then not so much. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: There's even a couple far nw crew hits I saw that. A few LSV sleeters. Kpitt will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Oh boy We take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12 hours ago, MAG5035 said: I think the more inside track of the low was what allowed the NAM to “nail” the warm surge since the low pressure ended up going right over my head. I bottomed out at 981mb this morning a few hours ago, probably the lowest MSLP around here since Hurricane Sandy. The low coming in this far really didn’t become evident on guidance until the near term yesterday since the consensus had generally been curling the rapidly deepening low into eastern PA, not dead center in the state. That was enough of a difference to not only allow a changeover to rain but also get some of the heavier rain and wind tapped down with the occluded frontal passage before the dry slot into the Sus Valley. NAM never really saw the half decent front end snows in the LSV until it was already happening. All models weren’t cold enough at the beginning of the storm either from the Laurels eastward in the state. Thanks for mentioning the fact that the NAM did not see any of the front end snow until it was almost underway yesterday. It had the right idea about mixing winning out earlier than expected and taking the mix deeper into PA than other models showed, but had no clue on CTP snow. The other models each had their good & their flaws with the storm over the course of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Understanding that its a timing situation, its still very strange the GFS and Euro are so far apart when the EPS is solidly behind the op. I see some more GFS like positions on that EPS map but more tucked. The GFS & Canadian has had this storm in previous runs just in the past couple of days. By 12z tomorrow I think the consensus will be building towards this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: SECS: 6-12" MECS: 12-20" HECS: 20+" This is how I always look at it. 20+ would be top 10 storms worthy of their own recognition and name/date combo (ie. Blizzard of 96, Snowmagedon, PDII, etc.) This is a good way to categorize these types of events. I like them all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I saw that. A few LSV sleeters. Kpitt will be happy. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: First week of January Temps below 20 at onset and throughout the duration of the storm Instant stickage to all surfaces immediately 30" of snow with a layer of sleet mixed in on the surface Temps in the teens by day, zero or below at night for at least the following 3-5 days Minimal drifting - drifting leaves too many open areas exposed that quickly become green even when it's cold This brought a tear to my eye…perfect! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Big signal now Massive signal for this range. I like seeing the bullseye over northern VA at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Please not again…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Trend is our friend.. precip starts with temps in the teens That looks great & I like the timing on a Friday pm and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, anotherman said: Please not again…. This one is a LSV & northern MD special! It’s our time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This one is a LSV & northern MD special! It’s our time.I hope you’re right. PTSD is real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Oh boy That’s 10-1 too, I know there is no Kuchera available for the Control, but imagine what that would look like… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Same here in Marysville. All surfaces covered again. Final event total to be determined! Not done yet! I picked up another .5 of snow with that last round earlier this evening. It was beautiful shoveling the snow & slop from last night while watching it snow in the headlights and street lights. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: No melting here . Cloudy most of the day .Tried to shovel the concrete encased cement snow and ice and it broke Yea, there was no moving anything today. Chemicals or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 23 hours ago, Jonesy56 said: I think this was actually remarkably well modeled here in the Capital region (outside of some stingy NAM runs).. Mesos even at range consistently showed onset around 5 pm and changing to sleet between 9-10 pm w/ accumulations in the 4-5 inch range… that’s exactly what has happened here a few miles NE of hbg.. and looking back to global OPs runs from Weds, I think they were pretty good at nailing the upper-levels and general progression/timing.. certainly never budged off of the atypical inland track idea that resulted in our widespread taintage followed by dryslot.. no complaints here!! Glad everyone seems to have gotten something decent out of this fickle beast! Felt like we were tracking this one for a month. . Fantastic post! I agree… in the Harrisburg area, most global Ops and major ensembles had this area in the 4 to 5 inch snow range prior to the changeover for the last few days. The clueless NAM had no snow in PA until it was underway, & it was still under done. Between last night, this morning & this evening, altogether I ended up with 5 inches of snow between the 3 rounds of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Fantastic post! I agree… in the Harrisburg area, most global Ops and major ensembles had this area in the 4 to 5 inch snow range prior to the changeover for the last few days. The clueless NAM had no snow in PA until it was underway, & it was still under done. Between last night, this morning & this evening, altogether I ended up with 5 inches of snow between the 3 rounds of this event. The nam had no snow in pa? I am assuming you mean too little snow in the lsv where it was too warm in the UL's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This was outside of town out in the valley before dark. Lots of blowing and drifting. Most secondary roads/streets are still in pretty rough shape. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 How are roads in Lancaster county looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The nam had no snow in pa? I am assuming you mean too little snow in the lsv where it was too warm in the UL's. Yes, mostly I meant it showed no snow for the LSV, but it also had very little compared to other models for the I-99 corridor that did well yesterday with snow. Every model had their good, bad & ugly for this event. At the end of the day, we put some snow on the board and had a very interesting action packed event to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: Snow on snow Snow on snow on snow ….let’s do this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Snow on snow 2-4. A bit warm still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, there was no moving anything today. Chemicals or bust. It was very tough to clean this event up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: Starting early morning in January. I'd take my chances It will lay on the snow already on the ground! Lol. If it is cold enough for road, it becomes high impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdbean Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, anotherman said: How are roads in Lancaster county looking? Mostly dry actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Mostly dry actually.Wow, that’s surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12k & 3k NAM at the end of the run each are showing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 84 hour still has frz and sleet in Mexico. I find that even more amusing that the somewhat common snows there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 12k & 3k NAM at the end of the run each are showing it. Well, if it's the clueless NAM it can't be right...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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